To believe the Daily Fail - full UK lockdown being announced next week?

[Hmmmmminteresting]

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8898985/Boris-Johnson-announce-national-coronavirus-lockdown-WEEK-save-Christmas.html

I hate to believe, but now am also used to this dripfeed we get which 9/10 times ends up being correct 🤔

From the DT:

Covid cases are not spiralling out of control, says King's College

Figures contradict recent data from Imperial College, which showed nearly 100,000 new coronavirus infections a day in England
By Sarah Knapton, Science Editor 30 October 2020 • 5:01pm

Covid-19 rates are not surging, researchers at King's College have said after results from its symptom tracker app showed a far less deadly virus trajectory than Imperial College findings.

Earlier in the week, Imperial released interim data from its React-1 study which showed there are now nearly 100,000 new coronavirus cases a day in England, with nearly one million people infected. The Imperial team said rates were doubling every nine days and it was a critical time for lowering the 'R' rate.

However, King's College – which has been monitoring the symptoms and test results of millions of people through its app – said it was not seeing such alarming numbers. The app found 43,569 daily new symptomatic cases on average, and calculated that doubling was happening every 28 days.

Tim Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College, said: "While cases are still rising across the UK, we want to reassure people that cases have not spiralled out of control, as has been recently reported from other surveys. We are still seeing a steady rise nationally, doubling every four weeks – with the possible exception of Scotland, which may be showing signs of a slowdown.

"With a million people reporting weekly, we have the largest national survey and our estimates are in line with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) survey. We can't rely simply on confirmed cases or daily deaths without putting them into context. Hospital admissions are rising as expected, but deaths are still average for the season."

New figures released by the ONS also put the number of daily infections far lower than Imperial's figures.

The ONS estimates that 568,100 people are currently infected, with 51,900 new cases each day – equating to around one in 100 people, up from 1 in 130 people in the previous week.

Although the ONS figures show the virus is accelerating, increasing by just under 50 per cent in a week, the doubling time is still between 12 and 14 days, far less than Imperial's rate.

The latest nowcasting data from Cambridge University's MRC Biostatistics Unit estimates there are 55,600 new daily infections, while Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) believes the figures are between 50,000 and 63,000.

There is also widespread disagreement on the current 'R' rate, with Imperial suggesting it is around 1.6 for England but King's saying it is closer to 1.1. Sage also believes the 'R' rate is between 1.1 and 1.3. The figures, produced by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) group, are lower than last week when they stood at between 1.2 and 1.4.

A source close to the Government science team said the lower rates could mean that some of the new restrictions were having an impact. However, they said the virus was still growing at an alarming rate.

"The numbers are still headed in the wrong direction," the source said. "It still means everything is growing. It probably implies some of the measures are having an effect, but this is far from a shrinking epidemic."

Commenting on the disparities between the groups, Professor James Naismith, of the University of Oxford, said it was difficult to determine which group's figures were the most accurate.

"We can't simply average or say one is right," he said. "They are all well planned and carried out by experts. They all measure slightly different things and therefore have uncertainty.

"What is concerning is the numbers and trajectories reported by these three surveys differ significantly from the average of 18,000 detected by track and trace system. The data also help understand why track and tracing has not worked.

"Using the ONS data, we would estimate 330,000 new cases week ending 21 October. This means, assuming the contact number per person are right, which is a big assumption, one million people need to be contacted."

I read somewhere that the excess deaths for last week are less than they were last year, which suggests that the virus isn't claiming lives.

National lockdowns don't work
They do when it's done properly. That includes restricting the borders and not reopening them too soon.

I'll repeat Prof Sridhar's expert words:

Two approaches: either keeping borders largely open like the UK, but adopting harsh domestic restrictions to try to combat community transmission; or having very tight border controls, like Taiwan and New Zealand, but few restrictions on everyday life.

And

Europe paying for summer holidays with winter lockdowns.

And

I sometimes feel like we've overcomplicated the basics of infectious disease prevention: the virus moves when people move.

And

Control your virus, solve your public health problem and then you get your economic recovery. If you try and do both, we will just see cycles of lockdown and release

I wish we would have a complete lockdown. A true lockdown.

I've read that if hospital admissions continue increasing at the current rate there won't be a bed free by the week before Christmas. Ds has been to the theatre tonight, less than 50% of seats available & many of those empty, he has bought a ticket for another show in 10 days, I had better start preparing him for not going. I just hope school get their fingers out & sort lessons out this time.

I’ve just been offered a job last week on 23 October with a huge uk national company/employer. Start date I’ve been given is 1st December, I advised I didn’t need to give notice and could start straight away. I’m thinking they already knew of an expected lockdown as I was suspicious when they said 1 December.

I reckon they'll shut secondary but keep primary open. Everything bar people that have to go into work stay home. And maybe, just fucking maybe we will shut the fucking border this time!

It really isn't just about how many deaths Covid causes, it is about essential services being available in times of an emergency/multiple car pile up/winter spikes in hospital admissions every year etc.

The people that work in those situations are just the same as you and me and have families to return home to and there is only so much we can expect from them.

I think the government are making the right decision really as I can see how easily it can affect planning for surgery let alone the usual winter problems of surgery cancellations every year. Hopefully, one day in the not too distant future that can be addressed as the general yearly flu brings elective/planned surgery in NHS hospitals to a halt regularly every winter with lack of beds due to annual flu admissions etc.

There are no winners at all, but we do need to listen to the medical people working on the job dealing with the crisis and they need us to reduce our exposure to others at the moment. I am in private healthcare which has been seconded to NHS for the pandemic - lots have, but for some reason it's not that widely known.

@Leaannb

I wish we would have a complete lockdown. A true lockdown.

Exactly. If schools and universities are left open then there absolutely isn’t any point to a new lockdown.

I have several friends who are teachers and whilst it does seem to pop up in the primaries they don’t think any of the pupils are spreading it to each other, and there’s apparently been no ‘outbreaks’ at primaries in our LEA area,

Since the research is completely clear that you’d children don’t present with any of the top 3 symptoms (and can’t get tested based on the symptoms they do present with) or are often silent spreaders, I’m not surprised they think this.

I don't like the drip feed to the press instead of the worst Prime Minister in history doing a press conference. Late night leaks are the worst, but what do you expect from a poor quality journalist with no morals?

What is the point of a lockdown if education is all still open?

That’s where the virus is spreading the most!

Yes we need one. Due to government incompetence.

The BBC is reporting that the models say that without lockdown there will be no space in any NHS hospitals (including Nightingales) in December. I wouldn’t wish that on anyone.

We need a proper means tested furlough scheme. Anyone with savings/big salary has had 6 months notice this was coming it was obvious. We must protect the vulnerable and those with limited means by properly providing for them.

Guardian reporting the scientists say at least 6 weeks will be needed now

Another sign of government incompetence, they were told. 2 week break at the end of September

But no, we mustn't damage the economy by a 2 week break....no no no...oh fuck lets screw it much worse because we left it too late

Again

All these people wanting a full lockdown, are your jobs at risk? Are you worrying where your next mortgage payment is coming from, how you're going to feed your family? People seem to be loving the fact of a lockdown so they can go back to baking bread and working from home in their cosy home office.

Also coming via the BBC now

@SheepandCow

National lockdowns don't work They do when it's done properly. That includes restricting the borders and not reopening them too soon.

I'll repeat Prof Sridhar's expert words:

Two approaches: either keeping borders largely open like the UK, but adopting harsh domestic restrictions to try to combat community transmission; or having very tight border controls, like Taiwan and New Zealand, but few restrictions on everyday life.

And

Europe paying for summer holidays with winter lockdowns.

And

I sometimes feel like we've overcomplicated the basics of infectious disease prevention: the virus moves when people move.

And

Control your virus, solve your public health problem and then you get your economic recovery. If you try and do both, we will just see cycles of lockdown and release

She's far from an expert, look up her credentials. UK will never close its borders to do that they would need to stop all movement in and out including the illegal immigrants coming by boat on a daily basis, that will never happen I'm afraid.

Also Devi Sridhar blocks anyone on Twitter that even mildly disagrees with her view she accepts no alternative opinions even from people more qualified to comment. She's an snp supporter tells you all you need to know.

Exactly. If schools and universities are left open then there absolutely isn’t any point to a new lockdown.

99% of uni teaching is now done online at all unies as far as I know.

Schools... I don't know. Look at the levels of illiteracy... I don't think homeschooling for all is a great way forward, because quite frankly, majority cannot, or at least should not, in my opinion homeschool...

@epcot15 yep our business we’ve worked hard to build up has fallen off the edge of a cliff, we’re entitled to 0 support because we’re a limited company, DH car sold, house was due to be photographed to go on the market next week to help save us. Now that won’t happen and we’ve probably missed the boat. But I know it needs to happen.....everything will collapse anyway with the death and hospital admission predictions as they are, it would have the same affect as a lockdown, at least with a lockdown we might save some lives.

What I am apocalyptic about is this disgusting, disgusting incompetent shit show of a government have treated this like a day by day flaming popularity contest, we could have had a two week in September and really got back in charge. Now the only things that will work is weeks on end. If you opposed a smaller lockdown earlier on you are part of the problem!

I don't understand the obsession with Christmas. We can all celebrate Xmas, but this year it might have to be different, just for once. I normally visit family and spend it with them, and love being with the small children, but I accept that this year that probably won't happen. I can get some nice food in, we can FaceTime. It won't be the same, but it's not the end of the world. And it's 2 months away yet people seem to be pushing the government to tell us what we'll be allowed to do at a time when we don't even know what the next few weeks hold.

I'd much rather we focussed on getting our lives back. I don't understand all the clamouring for a full lockdown. We'll be in a sorry state soon - money doesn't grow on trees.

@chuggington2

I'm sorry to hear about your business and I hope things improve for you soon.

Do you honestly think a 2 week lockdown would've worked back in Sep? I'm in Scotland we've been under strict measures since Sep, they were to be reviewed regularly (they weren't) we then went into another form of mini lockdown all pubs bars restaurants shut for 2 weeks, then extended by another week. Now from Monday we're in tier 3 of this never ending shit show. So we've been under tight restrictions going on 2 months now and it hasn't made a blind bit of difference apart from mass unemployment and destruction of the hospitality business.

Also hospital admissions are normal for this time of year..NHS has been severely under pressure every winter for years, there's never enough beds.

I really wish that there was a law that the media could only report facts not supposition .

It drives me mad and causes a lot of unnecessary anxiety.

I’m not sure if it’s a government tactic, but for me I don’t agree.

It has led to me starting to not believe anything I read.

Restaurants are not socially distanced though and even less, well ventilated.

I've been out 3 times since beginning Sept.
Each time halfway through the restaurant filled up and became stuffy, each time I asked if a window could be opened, for '' a few moments '' each time, either from other customers or staff I have been met with resistance.

Unfortunately the obvious, ventilation message, has not been pushed by our government.

Restaurant can close at 10pm, wipe tables down, staff can wear masks.

None of that will protect customers as much as simply, either keeping a window and door open to allow air to be move and disperse or, periodically opening a window to shift air around.

And yet its like asking for everyone to do something extremely unreasonable, in a pandemic with an airborne respitory virus.

I have no patience anymore. How can people be so utterly thick and stupid especially those who run restaurant and pubs and want to keep trading?

@Mokusspokus

Restaurants are not socially distanced though and even less, well ventilated.

I've been out 3 times since beginning Sept.
Each time halfway through the restaurant filled up and became stuffy, each time I asked if a window could be opened, for '' a few moments '' each time, either from other customers or staff I have been met with resistance.

Unfortunately the obvious, ventilation message, has not been pushed by our government.

Restaurant can close at 10pm, wipe tables down, staff can wear masks.

None of that will protect customers as much as simply, either keeping a window and door open to allow air to be move and disperse or, periodically opening a window to shift air around.

And yet its like asking for everyone to do something extremely unreasonable, in a pandemic with an airborne respitory virus.

I have no patience anymore. How can people be so utterly thick and stupid especially those who run restaurant and pubs and want to keep trading?

I take it you don't own a pub or restaurant that is actually you know your livelihood. What a fucking idiotic comment, why don't you stay beside your sofa hiding forever I'm sure your local bars and restaurants would be glad to see the back of you.

Yeah will be lockdown but with schools open