What Would Happen Without Lockdowns

[Flaxmeadow]

Just that really. What would have happened if we hadn't locked down in March or if we don't have lockdowns now

Sweden didn’t lock down.

Cardboard coffins? Bodies stacked in refrigerator vans? Mass graves? All these have happened in countries that became overwhelmed.

Isn’t Sweden going into lockdown now?

I have a feeling we are going to find out.

I pity the poor sods that work in the NHS, I think they are in for a horrific winter.

This is the million dollar question. Lockdown is utterly horrific, barbaric, unimaginable... but is it worse than what would have happened if we hadn’t done it? That’s incredibly hard to answer given we don’t know what that hypothetical situation is.

I suppose it also depends if we are comparing to doing nothing at all to stem the spread, or implementing measures short of lockdown.

I suspect in March the consequences of not locking down would have been worse. Now, I honestly don’t know.

Strawberrypancakes

A nicer life? Less redundancy? Less cancer / mental health / heart disease death?

I’m afraid the resulting catastrophic collapse of the NHS would lead to many, many more cancer, mental health and heart disease deaths.

Better quality of life for the majority of people. Less suicides. Normal life.

I think the NHS, and other services, would collapse. I think the armed forces would have to be brought in. Many many people would die alone, gasping for air, even die in the streets because there would be no assistance available

It would be barbaric to let this virus free.

Better quality of life for the majority of people. Less suicides. Normal life

Not sure if you're being serious.

What would happen to the virus? Would it just magically disappear in a puff of smoke into the ether. Puff and it's gone. Is that what would happen?

So.. what would you have people do?

Follow the advice and restrictions. What else is there to do?

No hospital beds or care for people who need it- not just Covid patients but also road traffic accidents, stroke victims, cancer patents, burst appendix.

So you, or anyone you care about might just suffer and die on the floor, in the street or in a corridor.

NHS Staff being overwhelmed and unable to work.

Complete chaos and associated economic fallout.

Better quality of life for the majority of people. Less suicides. Normal life

I know it's been awful but seriously a normal life? With a rampant virus running unchecked through the country??

@Flaxmeadow

I think the NHS, and other services, would collapse. I think the armed forces would have to be brought in. Many many people would die alone, gasping for air, even die in the streets because there would be no assistance available

It would be barbaric to let this virus free.

I hope I’m wrong but the armed forces may need to come in when the force of the economic cost comes in. Currently the furlough scheme and moratorium on evictions is shielding us from it. Soon we will have people starving on the streets, and a population utterly exhausted from being banned from seeing anyone outside of their house for months (unless you think anyone is coming out of tier 3 before spring).

I agree letting them virus rip would be dreadful. But what is coming as a result of lockdown is dreadful too. There are no good outcomes here, and I am past even trying to pretend I have an idea what is best.

A rampant virus which barely affects most people who get it unless they're very old. So the ECV should shield and the rest of us can get on with it.

Hear, hear @Strawberrypancakes

This whole thing is a joke.

You think this is some kind of joke?

About 70% of people with the virus are asymptomatic.
The virus has a 14 day incubation period.
It's airborne and especially infectious in small indoor spaces/rooms.
It has a mortality rate over twice as high as that of seasonal flu? (correct me if I'm wrong)
If left unchecked it will spread rapidly (see asymptomatics, incubation period)
We have no natural immunity and no lasting immunity once we've had it.
Millions of people are vulnerble and would require medical assistance if they all caught it at once/in a short time frame

“Unless they are very old” yea right.

I agree letting them virus rip would be dreadful. But what is coming as a result of lockdown is dreadful too. There are no good outcomes here, and I am past even trying to pretend I have an idea what is best.

I agree. It's a balance between lockdowns and the economy.

All countries have made mistakes, all have had to change policy as new information about the virus comes to light. All have followed the same, or similar, lockdown paths. Just don't think we can do much else than abide by science led rules.

Hard to know, but it's interesting that nowhere in the world has seen Neil Ferguson level deaths, in spite of vastly different responses and levels of compliance. The virus has been with us for nearly a year now, so if it was going to happen, it surely would have happened by now

We don't need to imagine really

I am amazed that people seem to have forgotten the horrific scenes being reported from Northern Italy and New York.
China didn't let much news out but what was reported by medical staff in Wuhan was also horrific. A scale of death they had never seen.
There really were people dying before they could get to hospital and lying on the floor in corridors there. A nurse in NY killed herself because of the conditions she witnessed.
Care homes were abandoned in Spain. Vulnerable people left to be neglected and die because there were no staff to care for them.

Even if some posters think that over 75s dying is no big deal they should remember that a small percentage of a big number is a lot of people
Even if only 5% of people in their 40s and 50s are seriously ill that is going to tot up to a lot of people in hospital, off work for months, unable to care for their kids if most of the population get infected.

Before lockdown London was shaping up to a New York situation. Northwick Park ran out of ICU beds despite what people now think were too high admission thresholds and cancellations of all other work.

What would have happened?
Many many people would have died and been seriously ill.

It is stupid to think that just shielding vulnerable people and everyone else carrying on is a viable strategy

1. Shielding is imperfect. It cannot be done completely and as soon as it is breached many will die. If the infection rate in the general population is high shielded people will always be at high risk as well as having a shit life
2. Even if it was possible there would still be enough people in younger age groups getting very sick and dying to cause harm to the NHS and the economy because a low percentage of a huge number is still a lot of people.

If Boris doesn't go for another lockdown again soon then we can all find out who was right I guess...

all Jericoo@ this is totally untrue young people are dying. I agree the vulnerable should shield but they can’t be locked up forever.