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Original poster

What Would Happen Without Lockdowns

151 replies

Flaxmeadow · 29/10/2020 23:40

Just that really. What would have happened if we hadn't locked down in March or if we don't have lockdowns now

OP posts:
DougRossIsTheBoss · 30/10/2020 08:56

StrawberryPancakes

There was no-one in the Nightingales because we DID have lockdown. There were patients in the Spanish ones

Even more people would die of cancer without lockdown. If your cancer is so bad that it has killed you within 6 months without COVID it would have killed you even faster with it. If you think I am callous for saying that my mum just died of cancer so I am merely realistic.
Loads of people caught Covid in hospital in Spring. If we had tried to carry on with chemo and cancer ops at the same time they would have been sitting ducks. More people will die from cancer whatever we do at this point. The NHS cannot carry on as normal. Capacity is reduced and so more people will die.

I have said it before but no-one seems to get it. Just shielding the vulnerable and everyone else doing as they please won't work. If there are high levels in the general population then it will absolutely spread to the vulnerable because you cannot perfectly shield your self from a virus with asymptomatic spread. The vulnerable can only be safe if the levels are low in the general population and therefore the chances of having it are low

We are already having a load of measures short of lockdown and they are not working.

What was supposed to happen was
Lockdown to suppress case numbers- that worked
Use that period to get track and trace sorted- EPIC fail (as DS would say)
Gradually relax restrictions whilst keeping an eye on R and putting them back if it rises- hasn't worked because Boris was too slow to put them back and what he has done hasn't worked
Because the government have allowed it to get out of control again we will need a period of heavier restrictions to get back in control but as Boris won't do that we can shortly find out what no lockdown looks like with Manchester already

Our best chance of normal life is to suppress the virus to low levels so there is little risk of catching it and track, trace and isolate those who do like NZ and S Korea.
Until we get a vaccine

But then lots of idiots are apparently it going to even have the vaccine
People in general are scientifically illiterate in this country and the US.

Bollss · 30/10/2020 08:58

Why ask if you think you know better op?

Realistically we don't know. None of us can know because it didn't happen.

Chickenqueen · 30/10/2020 09:03

Grobagsforever

Do you know that 0.02% of 66 million (pop of the UK) is 132,000?? - and we have already had 50,000+ deaths, and I don't think half of the population have had it? So that is just wrong.

GalesThisMorning · 30/10/2020 09:05

@turnitonagain agreed. Everyone who posts on here saying it isn't such a big deal, just a flu, only kills the very elderly, masks are an infringement, we need to get back to normal life now etc etc... Trump agrees with you entirely. If that isn't enough to make you question your thought process I dont know what is.

Porcupineinwaiting · 30/10/2020 09:05

@Strawberrypancakes so how many will die of cancer without lockdown? How many people with cancer will die of COVID a) with lockdown b) without?

DougRossIsTheBoss · 30/10/2020 09:06

Quite.
People are mathematically illiterate as well as scientifically
I've tried to say it clearly upthread
A tiny percentage of a very big number is still a big number
Even IF it was only 0.02% (and it'll be more than 0.02% of the economically active people given it barely affects children) that is still an unimaginable number of people sick all at once.

Bollss · 30/10/2020 09:08

@DougRossIsTheBoss

Quite. People are mathematically illiterate as well as scientifically I've tried to say it clearly upthread A tiny percentage of a very big number is still a big number Even IF it was only 0.02% (and it'll be more than 0.02% of the economically active people given it barely affects children) that is still an unimaginable number of people sick all at once.
Why would they be sick all at once? What are the chances of the entire population being sick all at once, all needing admission to hospital all at once?
Delatron · 30/10/2020 09:08

I think what we don’t know is whether exponential growth would have kept happening over summer without lockdown.

Yes the NHS isn’t really fit for purpose so that’s our main problem. But we don’t understand enough about this virus. People saying ‘there’s is no lasting immunity’. 40 million people have been infected worldwide, there have been a handful of reinfections. There must be some immunity, we don’t know for how long yes. We don’t understand the roll of t-cells in immunity, could they be more important than antibodies? Some people have natural immunity. Not everyone would become infected at the same time.

What we don’t know is if we had some measures, but not full lockdown and all the impact that had, would that have been enough to bring cases down so the hospitals weren’t overwhelmed? Because in June/July/August hospitals tend to have spare capacity.

Would we be in a different position now?
There are some reports that in the south cases had peaked and were already falling before lockdown. Would that trend have continued without lockdown but with some measures ? A few hospitals in the south were overwhelmed but would it have been manageable over the summer?

What we wouldn’t have had is all the students and school children back mixing all at the same time in September causing a huge spike.

Lavenderseas · 30/10/2020 09:08

and we have already had 50,000+ deaths

How many of those deaths were caused by Covid alone though?

Grobagsforever · 30/10/2020 09:10

[quote GingerAndTheBiscuits]@Grobagsforever assuming everyone has to get it at some point, that would still be almost 150,000 dead[/quote]
But they won't. That's not how pandemics work, they burn out, many people never get it, some people will have T cell immunity.

@GingerAndTheBiscuits

MummyPop00 · 30/10/2020 09:10

Yes, with no lockdown, it would indeed be grim.

But, grim for a potentially shorter period?

An NHS off limits to most for a year, or an NHS half functioning through on & off lockdowns for a lot longer?

They would both have downsides would they not?

To be honest though, if ICL are correct & 100,000 a day are catching Covid, that would effectively put a time limit on things anyway, vaccine or not, & given the government refusal of circuit breakers etc, herd immunity with some intermittent braking applied seems to be their policy anyway.

megletthesecond · 30/10/2020 09:12

The NHS will go off a cliff edge when staff are off sick.
See how that works out when it comes to treating other conditions. Say goodbye to any hope of MH support to anyone either.

EvilPea · 30/10/2020 09:13

Without lockdown we would need a decent test, track and trace, isolation hotels for people entering the country and a population who comply.

We don’t have them. People were happy (ish) to accept the first lockdown as we knew it bought the government time to learn about the virus and get their shit together.
They haven’t done that which will have lost much of the good will for round 2.

GalesThisMorning · 30/10/2020 09:14

Why would they be sick all at once? What are the chances of the entire population being sick all at once, all needing admission to hospital all at once?

@TrustTheGeneGenie

I'm not a doctor or very good at maths but the chances of lots of people all getting sick at the same time is because of the novel virus being left unchecked right? That's what we're trying to avoid?

Bollss · 30/10/2020 09:14

@megletthesecond

The NHS will go off a cliff edge when staff are off sick. See how that works out when it comes to treating other conditions. Say goodbye to any hope of MH support to anyone either.
Most of them will only be off sick for two weeks. And we have locum staff. We don't just stop services unless there is literally no single other option which I can assure you is fairly unlikely to happen.
WhenSheWasBad · 30/10/2020 09:14

How many of those deaths were caused by Covid alone though

Are you trying to argue these people would have died anyway? I’m not remotely convinced by that argument.

What Would Happen Without Lockdowns
Bollss · 30/10/2020 09:15

@GalesThisMorning

Why would they be sick all at once? What are the chances of the entire population being sick all at once, all needing admission to hospital all at once?

@TrustTheGeneGenie

I'm not a doctor or very good at maths but the chances of lots of people all getting sick at the same time is because of the novel virus being left unchecked right? That's what we're trying to avoid?

But they're not all going to catch it simultaneously on the same day are they? It will make its way through people. Even if we didn't lock down were still distancing and washing hands etc so I think it's unlikely that it would infect every single person in the UK on the same weekend.
WhenSheWasBad · 30/10/2020 09:17

Most of them will only be off sick for two weeks. And we have locum staff

There are staff shortages even without Covid.
And yes some will be off sick for 2 weeks. For others it could take longer, also if their loved ones are sick people will stay away from work to care for them.

EvilPea · 30/10/2020 09:17

It’s not just the collapse of the nhs due to staff shortages.
It’s everything, police, retail, social services, schools.
Too many people get ill too many are off work.

I’ve got a family member with long Covid. It is terrible, it’s been over 6 months now.

DougRossIsTheBoss · 30/10/2020 09:17

Exponential spread

The whole population would not get it at once but it would be a very high proportion of the population at once due to no pre-existing immunity.
Also it would be concentrated in urban areas so even higher proportions would be infected there.

It would not grumble along gently infecting people at a low level it will accelerate. I am not making this up it is happening right now before your very eyes. Cases don't bump along at a low level. At the peak they were doubling every 4 days and we are heading back to that. Then hospital admissions 2 weeks later start to grow and then deaths.

Bollss · 30/10/2020 09:19

@WhenSheWasBad

Most of them will only be off sick for two weeks. And we have locum staff

There are staff shortages even without Covid.
And yes some will be off sick for 2 weeks. For others it could take longer, also if their loved ones are sick people will stay away from work to care for them.

Yes I know it's my job to sort this out. I'm well aware what staffing issues we have in the nhs. I'm also well aware of what we do when people are off sick Hmm
turnitonagain · 30/10/2020 09:20

Most of them will only be off sick for two weeks. And we have locum staff. We don't just stop services unless there is literally no single other option which I can assure you is fairly unlikely to happen.

Is this serious? So someone has just been off sick with COVID for two weeks and comes back into an overloaded service with many other colleagues off as well. You think it won’t affect the quality of care? Are NHS staff super humans in your opinion?

Bollss · 30/10/2020 09:21

@turnitonagain

Most of them will only be off sick for two weeks. And we have locum staff. We don't just stop services unless there is literally no single other option which I can assure you is fairly unlikely to happen.

Is this serious? So someone has just been off sick with COVID for two weeks and comes back into an overloaded service with many other colleagues off as well. You think it won’t affect the quality of care? Are NHS staff super humans in your opinion?

No they're not super humans but most of them ime just get on with it. The NHS has been overwhelmed for much longer than covid has existed.
Watermelon999 · 30/10/2020 09:21

@Strawberrypancakes

A nicer life? Less redundancy? Less cancer / mental health / heart disease death?
I’m afraid you’re completely wrong.

The opposite would happen

DougRossIsTheBoss · 30/10/2020 09:23

It's not just due to staff and bed shortages that routine work has to stop during Covid (although that is a huge factor)

We do have 'locum staff' BTW most of them are the regular staff doing extra shifts on 'bank'. There's no army of spare Drs and nurses waiting in the wings.

It's also that you cannot have COVID and non Covid sick people on the same areas. The non Covid sick people will get it and die. With asymptomatic spread and an incubation period plus delays to test results hospitals were and are a great place to catch Covid.
I would not allow my immune suppressed mum anywhere near one.

The NHS cannot carry on other work unless cases are low. They were in the summer and we tried to get back in track but now we have lost it again.