France considering a four week lockdown, possibly Germany too

[Redolent]

Lots of speculation about what this might involve in France - Guardian is reporting closure of all pubs and restaurants, but still keeping schools open. Or maybe closing secondary schools and keeping primary ones open. Announcement due today.

In Germany it’s being billed as a light November lockdown: schools stay open, pubs close, restaurants takeaway only etc

We’re normally a couple of weeks behind. Do you think nationwide action in other European countries will make it more likely here? Are we going to have ‘lockdown to save Christmas‘, or just more more tiers?

I think more and more countries will be trying different versions of lockdowns over the next two months. I rather suspect they will all come to the same realisation that they aren’t terribly effective at stopping the spread whilst schools are open and jammed packed.

I'm in ROI, it's pretty much what's happening here now until dec 1st. Food takeaway only, pubs only got to open for two weeks and then they had to close again. All non essential businesses closed.
I think we will have waves of this for the foreseeable.

If it's necessary to keep schools open, then perhaps.

But I worry about the economic cost of locking down again.

Schools should be the last to close.

We can't eliminate the virus, so each lockdown only delays the transmission for a few weeks. And the cost to businesses is huge.

Actually Germany is looking to reduce the size of public gatherings, close theatres and discos etc, but keep shops, hairdressers and schools open. So not really a 'lockdown'! And there is a lot of opposition in Germany actually.

In the U.K. we already have most areas under some form of lockdown, already stricter to what Germany is proposing.

It only "makes it more likely" in the sense of showing us where we'll be in a couple of weeks' time. Our case and death figures are not far behind theirs.

The UK has already imposed pretty stringent lockdown restrictions in many areas.

Lockdowns are very expensive and the virus will simply re-emerge afterwards. I'm not a fan of further lockdowns.

I also wonder the public will support even stricter lockdown measures? And will the follow them?!

Germany is in such a different position to us - 156.2 cases per 100,000 with deaths 0.6, so is presumably acting now to ensure they don't see the substantial rises happening across Europ.

France is on 659.9 cases per 100,000 with 3.9 deaths

UK 424.1 and 3.5

(Source ECDC rolling 14 day figures)

I think the half-arsed lockdowns are pointless, and full lockdowns are finacially ruinous. At this point I throw my hands on the air because I can't see a workable solution.

Interesting that the countries with the lowest cases (147 Sweden and 156 Germany) are the ones with the least restrictions! People there are treated like adults and take personal responsibility for their actions. Their economy is also in much better shape.

We definitely don't need MORE restrictions here.

There's no right course of action now. Just varying degrees of shit.

Personally I think we should have had a further lockdown over half term plus two weeks

I think we need a short sharp 4 weeks now schools remain open as far as possible, but everything else to shut as before

France really needs to have a lockdown - estimated 100,000 cases a day. I should think that the action needed will have to be pretty drastic. Second wave is here all the way across Europe - with most countries fearing it to be worse than the first.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/26/france-may-100000-virus-cases-daily-german-public-health-agency/

Schools remaining open in all countries, so far no schools will be closed. At least they seem to be getting that right this time. I imagine college and universities may need to move online though.

Not particularly keen on any kind of lockdown....nonetheless, find me an alternative that works? I think most European countries (I include the UK in my definition of 'European') will be locking down for a period of time soon as hospitals become overwhelmed. Belgium is expecting to run out of ICU beds in two weeks' time at current infection rates, for example.

There is a big difference between schools staying open where they have masks and social distancing and a quick test and trace (so there are means to stop transmission) and keeping schools opening with none of the above.

For the record, I WANT schools open but they really need to fund schools to allow for mitigation or locking down elsewhere will be pointless.

What they need is to take the money back off Serco and give it to schools and the NHS.

The government always have the option of starting the christmas holidays a little earlier if they need to. Children are going back in November, hopefully we can last just over a month - and then a longer holiday potentially could work.
According to the modelling that is when the second peak is due roughly. That also gives people the chance of a two week isolation period in order to perhaps see family for christmas......with enough notice that could work possibly. People would need to be organised for christmas early for it to work. God knows how this is going to pan out for those already in tier 3.

We may not have much of a choice when it comes to it.

I'd be able to get on board with an extended Xmas break (if there is absolutely no way to keep schools open)

Other than school run, nursery and swimming lessons we barely do anything at the moment anyway. It's all so bloody miserable.

Recent events across Europe suggest that the public isn't keen on draconian restrictions on our personal freedoms. The situation need to be dealt with a smarter multi-disciplinary approach. You need to get the brightest medics, communication specialists, epidemiologists, entrepreneurs together to solve these problems effectively. We have to learn to live alongside this threat but without losing sight of opportunity cost.

Does anyone know if there is an effective EU-wide response to Covid?

How did Germany achieve such a comparatively low death rate?

Victoria in Australia has just managed to get their rate down. But they had a strict lockdown n that inlcuded schools. Many states in America have included schools havent they?

I am wondering how many more businesses have to go under and jobs lost before they realise that schools need to make changes. I agree with lockdown but not half hearted lockdown which just costs jobs and the economy and doesnt work.

@EarlySignsOfSpring

How did Germany achieve such a comparatively low death rate?

One thing that helped was an effective testing system there from relatively early on. I believe that testing is also available locally e.g. through GP centres.

www.ft.com/content/cc1f650a-91c0-4e1f-b990-ee8ceb5339ea

Decisive, effective and swift action helps in crisis management.

Germany are seeing a fierce second wave, and soon T&T will be overwhelmed as they have already acknowledged.

Germany locked down very quickly in the spring, so they stamped out the virus swiftly and then reopened slowly early summer. This time it is not so easy to just 'shut down' again, as the economy is going to take another huge hit, same problem everywhere.

I don't believe anyone has the answer. We are just going to live in cycles I am afraid, until a solution is ready.