What is reason for rise in cases in over 60’s?

[Watermelon999]

In our area this has really risen and obviously leads to more hospitalisations and more poorly patients, with rise in itu admissions.

What is the reason for this?

Is it the result of people still seeing family? Or family providing childcare? (I know some will still be working themselves).

@Russiansilver

I might be over sensitive but the implication to me in the Ops post is that everybody over 60 should stay home . My junior school class might miss their teacher.

Not at all @Russiansilver

But the fact remains that once it spreads to the 60+ age group, hospital admissions significantly increase, and itu admissions and deaths. This then leads to increased restrictions and limitations on other medical interventions.

We need to get greater understanding of how it is spreading to help to limit this rather than blanket bans on everything which is not sustainable. This will enable us to make informed decisions.

If the spread in pubs/restaurants and shops is low, hopefully we can keep enjoying these things without them having restrictions in our household groups.

I don’t agree with hiding the vulnerable and the over 60’s away like some people suggest. I think we need to all take sensible precautions, based on the evidence.

My gut feeling is that the spread is mainly coming from schools and educational establishments, with some workplace and multi household mixing. This is purely my opinion though and I have no evidence for this, purely anecdotal.

@Hercwasonaroll

The teens survive but will have to live the rest of their life feeling responsible for killing a loved one.

Who actually says this to their teen though? You wouldn't blame them if they passed on a cold or noro virus. Why are we playing such a vile blame game with corona?

They've all seen the don't kill granny adverts.

@Russiansilver

I might be over sensitive but the implication to me in the Ops post is that everybody over 60 should stay home . My junior school class might miss their teacher.

Not necessarily the OP but there were certainly some posters with that agenda. There's a very nasty undercurrent of ageism on MN these days. Thankfully HQ are on it.

@AlphaJura

Its because after the first wave and lockdown, we're eased, then things were relaxed. But a lot of older people carried on shielding, maybe only popping to the shops and seeing family occasionally. Over the summer, it was spreading predominantly amongst the younger population who were socialising and working. Then schools opening in September. As we know, it barely affects young people, but they can spread it. So as the R number increased, it inevitably found its way to the older population and now we are starting to see the affects of that because they are affected more severely.

@AlphaJura

That is my point really.

In the summer when things were open and we had less restrictions, it was spreading among the younger age groups, so hospitalisations were minimal.

For some reason it didn’t find it’s way to the over 60’s then, even though they were out and about (quite rightly) like everybody else.

So what has changed recently to make the spread increase? Is it to do with grandparents providing after school childcare? Or have more people returned to work? I don’t know.

@Chaotic45

Breaking news: Covid is transferred from person to person. The over 60s are catching it from being close to, or sharing a touched surface with an infected person.

There will be a million settings in which this has happened, all with one thing in common- they got close to, or touched the same surface as an infected person.

@Chaotic45

Of course you’re right, but it would be helpful to be given more information on the mode or places of transmission, so that we can all make more informed choices.

Eg, When mask wearing or not? In workplaces? On public transport? etc

DM is in her 80s. At the point of lockdown, she was very cautious partly because she was recovering from one ailment that had her in hospital where she aquired a nasty chest infection... then a DVT scare...

By August her and her friends began to venture out more. Well apart from the one who died suddenly from cancer in July and the one in and out of hospital with cancer who died in September. She and her friends are at the stage where life is precious and quality of life is not guaranteed. Sitting outside in accordance with local regulations is not practical when you're vulnerable to the cold and the damp aggravates your arthritis. There is little to be gained by your 80s by wasting what health and mobility you have left when the chances of your heart, a blood clot, cancer, random illness can overturn or end your life at anytime. Covid is just another one in a long list.

Social distancing is harder with deteriorating eyesight including cateracts and reduced hearing.

And if health is failing then contact with family, carers and HCPs put vulnerable older people at greater risk. Many cases involving older people will be secondary infections aquired while people are in hospital for other conditions.

It's not a morality issue, just people trying to live as best as they can while they can.

So what has changed recently to make the spread increase? Is it to do with grandparents providing after school childcare? Or have more people returned to work? I don’t know.

• As the numbers of cases rise the more chances there are of contracting it.
• Cases rising in Care Homes and Hospitals where older and sicker people are more susceptible
• More household contacts indoors due to weather whereas lots of meetings, BBQs etc. outside in summer
• Return to schools and DGP providing childcare
• Generally people being a bit more relaxed about going out and meeting people

The older people around here are going out with friends, taking buses, and refusing to wear masks (openly admit they could but won't)

My MIL is over 70 and really just doesn't seem to understand the risks.

She's in London and has merrily been travelling on buses for no essential reason at all. Trips to the next town to pop into Costa hardly count as essential. Travelling around in April she was surprised how quiet it was on the bus and wondered where everyone else was

She has multiple "bubbles" according to who she fancies seeing that day.

DH has tried to explain it to her but she is either incapable or unwilling to act cautiously. She assured him she was following the tier 2 rules whilst in the next breath saying she'd gone to the pub with her friend. In tier 2 separate households shouldn't be meeting indoors anywhere.

She's upset we won't visit her but I'm not prepared to risk it. DH has been over and has to stop her hugging and kissing him.

We are worried about her. She has health conditions which put her at extra risk but there's a limit to how involved we can be when someone makes choices so out of alignment to our own.

@Hercwasonaroll

The teens survive but will have to live the rest of their life feeling responsible for killing a loved one.

Who actually says this to their teen though? You wouldn't blame them if they passed on a cold or noro virus. Why are we playing such a vile blame game with corona?

My dad was always told he killed his baby cousin by passing on whooping cough to her when he himself was only 5, the guilt must have stayed with him as he often retold the story many years later, it was made worse by his aunt not being able to have more children.

For some reason it didn’t find it’s way to the over 60’s then, even though they were out and about (quite rightly) like everybody else.

So what has changed recently to make the spread increase? Is it to do with grandparents providing after school childcare? Or have more people returned to work? I don’t know

Sheer numbers of cases.

Infections originally stayed in young peer groups but occasionally infected older contacts.

Once you start to get sufficient numbers in older age groups they tend to infect their peer groups too.

We tend to socialise in higher risk ways either along family lines or along peer group lines. So its likely the age group has gradually risen through peers a few years apart having slightly different social groups or via a generational jump through families.

The other possible and likely avenues are through schools (children to parents/teachers and subsequently onward through their peers, particularly via older teenagers) and via cross infections in hospitals going undetected.

It wont have happened suddenly but when you reach a critical mass you have a problem because the risk from numerous sources close to older age groups has reached a tipping point where loads of people are all being exposed to the virus at a similar time because of a general pattern - and that peer group all start to give it to each other.

People trust those they are close to and regard them as having been 'sensible' and 'definitely haven't done anything high risk which could have infected them' so take more risks than they realise because of a false sense of security.

I don't think your q is really answerable OP in the way you would like.
When there are a very low number of cases you can track and trace them and get the kind of precise info you are wanting about when and where people got it
This is how things were supposed to play out. It was accepted there would be outbreaks but they'd be traced and locked down.

I think it's safe to say we are now in an exponential spread situation again in many areas with cases rising very rapidly and so many people have it that it is not possible for many to figure out where they got it and therefore to say what is the most risky.

If you look at the hotspot graph upthread no age groups are really disproportionate it's just rising for all age groups now. Maybe it started with unis and schools but it's escaped and is far beyond that now and it's doubtful the current strategy will succeed in putting it back in the box. You can't just stop over 60s getting it. The more there is around the more at risk they are as well as everyone else.

Things we have found out are that indoors is riskier than outdoors and that the longer and closer the contact the higher the risk will be. Masks and handwashing and sanitising help a bit but aren't a panacea especially with the way most people use them so poorly.

It is likely that most spread is happening in gatherings in people's homes because that is where you are most likely to relax, spend more time, not distance, hand wash etc and have limited space and ventilation and less cleaning than in an office or restaurant.
If you are highly motivated to avoid getting it you will limit your social contacts overall, don't meet people with lots of contacts like kids, meet outside ideally and don't violate distancing.

But it's easier said than done.

I think Boris is going to have to go for a National lockdown again before too long probably after other countries eg France have done it.

Haven’t read the whole thread, but I think cases have increase more in this age group as they are more likely to get symptoms and therefore test.
Younger age groups are most probably asymptomatic or have mild cold like symptoms and therefore don’t test as frequently

I read something interesting about the uni outbreaks too which made sense to me and was less blaming of young people

The return to uni made new 'communities' that had not existed before. Inevitably lots of people came together who had not had contact with one another before (and that would be even if they followed all the rules to the letter. They would still be forming new households)

With all those new households forming it was essentially inevitable that some of them would contain an asymptomatic infected person who would infect that new household and that this would spread to other households. Even if they were very careful and stayed in bubbles it was likely to happen.

It should settle down because those new communities have now been infected and are immune but when they break up and go home again they will be reforming different households and the virus will have more opportunity to infect fresh areas again.

I think I can see why Wales decided on a draconian lockdown over half term. They probably were right to try to prevent the likelihood of people from high risk areas spreading the virus into vulnerable communities with no immunity.

Childcare will be a big factor.

My dad was always told he killed his baby cousin by passing on whooping cough to her when he himself was only 5, the guilt must have stayed with him as he often retold the story many years later, it was made worse by his aunt not being able to have more children
My Dad told me last week that his heart attack two year's ago was entirely my fault.

I’m totally fine with over-60s going to the pub. But not fine with locking down the country because of the consequences of their decision. This is all insane.

@StarCat2020
no your not - probably either bad inheritance or smoking, drinking & eating things that didn't do him any good

@Sb2012

Haven’t read the whole thread, but I think cases have increase more in this age group as they are more likely to get symptoms and therefore test. Younger age groups are most probably asymptomatic or have mild cold like symptoms and therefore don’t test as frequently

They haven't risen more in this age group. Pp's hotspot map shows clearly.

I’m totally fine with over-60s going to the pub. But not fine with locking down the country because of the consequences of their decision. This is all insane.
Why just over 60s @Bouncycastle12
What about everyone over 45 as thats when risks rise. What about those with medical conditions? BAME.?
You also don't sound very fine with it as clearly yo feel their actions are restricting others.

60-66 years is working age now.

You're also expected to look after children in school/nursery, have adults in universities coming and going from your house, attend medical appointments with other people in the waiting room coughing and unable to to wear masks, possibly be on medications that make you vulnerable, possibly have an underlying condition (or two) that might make you more vulnerable despite your best efforts to eat well and exercise, and generally be stressed off your tits whilst be called a terfy boomer.

@Bouncycastle12
Good job it's not ageist posters like you that get to make the decisions then.
ESPECIALLY AS THE FIGURES SHOW THAT WHAT THE OP THOUGHT IS WRONG

At the start of this thread, people were listing examples of older people ignoring the rules and living life as they chose because “they don’t have long left”. And that’s fine, but it is insane to lockdown the country because vulnerable (and it’s not ageist to say over 60s are more vulnerable to this disease, it’s just fact) people are choosing to take risks.

It is fine to state facts about who is most at risk.

It is not fine to then assume that the reason for lockdown is anecdote about who is rulebreaking

Or to assume that repressing the virus is to protect some not everyone, because - despite the statistics in death, it is making a lot of people extremely ill in short order, and non-lethal poor outcomes (stroke, organ failure) are not being much commented on.

Plus the consequences of uncontrolled economic collapse - which also affects everyone - if there is a huge peak (NHS overwhelmed for everything, supply chains collapsing because of sickness, businesses unable to open because of sick leave absences, and the sheer stress/misery)

they are not immune
they go out