Why is MN the only place that seems to pessimistic about a vaccine?!

[bottomsup00]

Been lurking on this board for a while.

Every time a vaccine is mentioned people seem to dismiss it, or say things like “it’s not a silver bullet” “it won’t save us” “things won’t go back to normal”

In real life, most people I speak to seem so positive about a vaccine.
Everyone I speak to understands it will take take to roll out to everyone and accepts this, but believes the vaccine approval will happen and fairly soon.

What makes a lot of people on here feel the opposite way?

Pessimists? Or anti vaxer?

Plenty of people on here just enjoy the misery

Neither?

A vaccine shown to be safe and effective doesn't exist yet, and it's OK not to count your chickens before they're hatched. It's a good thing that there are several promising ones reaching the final stages of testing, but we are not there yet.

And the logistics of a mass vaccination programme are a major issue, and one for which there is not much information yet. Perhaps when there is, we shall have a better idea of timelines. Because until there is a good level of coverage - perhaps down to cat 7 or more of the current JCVI priority list - there is unlikely to be significant relaxation of restrictions.

But as the timeline might coincide with next summer (when the stronger sun represses 'winter' bugs anyhow) there could be a considerably more optimistic view by the spring.

Realist?

Also real life conversations are rarely the time for getting into discussions about vaccinations, so many people may say that it is good whilst still having reservations.

You forgot the possibility that many here are realists.

Ant vaxxers get very short shrift here.

The development of a brand new vaccine has been discussed here a lot. Some of the posters work in the industry and have a lot of very specific knowledge. They rightly sound a note of caution, as do all of the scientists involved in the development. Whilst it is fine to say that the best scenario, with all testing going perfectly, is that there could be limited use by the end of the year, it is not fine to say that means there'll be a working vacccine by Christmas - which my facebook is full of!!

And it is also only right to say that as we don't know how long any vaccine remains efficaceous. For very many and varied reasons we could need multiple vaccinations, like flu vaccs.

There’s a lot doom and gloom merchants on this board. They thrive in the misery.

That would be because individual posters aren't affected by whatever "wartime" agreements have been reached with the media in order to avoid panicking the population. It's also because we have enough common sense look beyond soundbites to the reality beneath (remember when there would be a vaccine by September 2020 and those of us who doubted it were called downers?).

"Home by Christmas" etc.

Realism..... vaccines require long and extensive testing (efficacy) and monitoring (for safety) thats why ph3 trials take many years.

imho the optimism from our leaders etc is because they feel they need to give the people hope, light at the end of the tunnel... if they said no vaccine for 4 years, people would stop any semblance of compliance.
Also, in RL people don't seem optimistic at all.... how the fuck can they when infection rates are increasing and many T1 places are moving to T2 etc.

I would normally blame Mumsnet for being a pit of pessimism however my DP works in pharma and he is also being very negative about it 🙄

I have questioned him whether his pessimism is linked to the fact an effective vaccine has never been produced this quickly and also reminded him this is an unprecedented situation in terms of endeavour and finance, but he continues to shake his head.

I just hope his scepticism is misplaced.

Some people prefer not to get their hopes up. And a smaller group of them can’t stand to see anyone else getting their hopes up either.

At least the pessimism here is shifting a bit, from “there won’t ever be a vaccine” in the early days to “okay there’ll be a vaccine, but it’ll take 5-10 years to “okay there’ll be a vaccine and it’ll be a lot sooner, but it won’t be a magic bullet!”

I am fairly sure that the people now saying “but it won’t be a magic bullet” think they are helpfully managing the unrealistic expectations of others. It’s less clear whose expectations they think they’re managing, or what those expectations are. I bet most people don’t imagine that the day a vaccine is authorised the virus will just vanish.

Because plenty of people believe stuff put out by papers like the daily mail that "NHS staff will be vaccinated by Xmas"

The government seems to be planning mass vaccination soon but most scientists I know are very pessimistic. Largely because we haven’t got an existing vaccine that works for this type of virus, as I understand it, and lots of people think it’s impossible.

Mass testing is far more realistic.

Realism say a vaccine is 60% effective and there’s even a 70% uptake in over 70’s (which is probably a high estimate) that’s a lot of people still to clog up health system.

The main reason the early vaccines won’t be a magic bullet is they’re unlikely to stop transmission. They are one of the tools not the only tool.

Because people are realists.
And even if there was an effective vaccine, who says people will have it?
There’s a thread here where a good proportion of NHS staff state they will not.

Largely because we haven’t got an existing vaccine that works for this type of virus, as I understand it

Yes, we have got vaccines that work against coronaviruses.

I'm not pessimistic, i just think it will take time. So i think the idea that all HCP and elderely will have it by christmas is not likely.
To be fair a local surgery delivered 4000 flu vaccunations in a school hall over 1 weekend but i dont know how that would pan out over 67million.

The main issue is a lack of facts. There is no virus that has completed its phase III trial so we can’t a view about them. So short on facts people just express their fear and hopes.

Yeah! When the media get hold of "government planning NHS vaccination for Christmas" they make it sound imminent.

All it actually means is that a government department has been charged with puting an NHS vaccination plan in place by Christmas... so that when more is known about possibilities, timescales, etc the plan can be tweaked and be ready to go as and when.

It's good practice. It's common sense. It needs to be done. But it doesn't mean vaccination is happening at Christmas!

It will take a while to get it to everybody, and it’s right that healthcare workers and the most vulnerable will get the first doses. But that itself will be a good start. And people will be a lot cheerier, and a lot more willing to stick with restrictions for a little while longer, when they know there’s a light at the end of the tunnel.

There will still be some people who a vaccine won’t work for, so hopefully there will be enough immunity in the population to protect them more before too long. People who refuse to get it... well, do what you like, but there is zero chance the general population is going to keep distancing and wearing masks indefinitely for your sake.

I'm keeping an open mind.

It could happen - but it might not.

And it isn't clear how quickly they would be able to get a vaccine out, even if all goes well.

In addition, a vaccine (and/or previous infection) might not confer lasting immunity, we really don't know enough about this yet. So any vaccine might need to be repeatedly administered.

And also, we don't know what chance there would be of infection with any vaccine.

But of course, it's great that all this work is being done.

That's not pessimism, that's being realistic.

What annoys me is the “mark my words, there will never be a vaccine” uttered as fact by people who don’t have a clue.

TBH of all the forums I spend time in, MN probably has the largest proportion of people who are optimistic about a vaccine.

Common sense? We have four separate governments making their own decisions on lockdown restrictions etc. Do you honestly think there will be a universally agreed vaccination programme?

We have a flu vaccine and still have so many thousands die of flu each year.

Also, even when there is a vaccine, It would make sense to consider some ongoing precautions. As someone who is vulnerable, I am going to be very wary about using public transport in the future. I am not going to the theatre indoors or to the cinema any time soon. I am going to be wary about overseas travel. And I might choose to wear a mask if I go to a shopping mall.

I'd want to see a lot of evidence that all this was now safe, and / or that vaccines confer lasting immunity, before I take risks.

The BBC website has an article today about the drop off in antibodies following infection. Which means there is no certainty that a vaccine will give long-term immunity.

I think its important to be realistic about it

@MillieEpple

I'm not pessimistic, i just think it will take time. So i think the idea that all HCP and elderely will have it by christmas is not likely. To be fair a local surgery delivered 4000 flu vaccunations in a school hall over 1 weekend but i dont know how that would pan out over 67million.

It’s not 67 million for a start because under 18s won’t get it. But still a huge number to be administered and a massive logistical exercise (which of course we will flop at).