Damning report about Sweden

[CovidHalloween]

I’ve read a lot of hot air about Sweden’s “amazing” approach to the virus on here before.
The Times has just released a report on how badly Sweden has managed the virus and how it has one of the highest deaths per capita.

time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/

It‘s not just genetics either. Climate, seasonality, humidity, obesity, age and health of population, air pollution, % population that are urbanised, travel patterns (such as where holidays are taken), previous exposure to coronaviruses (such as sars cov 1), quality of healthcare etc etc all could play a part. As it is wrong to blame an individual for catching covid or infecting someone else, unless they have been truly reckless, you can‘t blame or congratulate countries for their response when there is so much we still don’t know for certain.

All cause mortality is higher this year in Finland than Sweden so maybe they are counting covid deaths differently.

@sashagabadon

But I think it’ll be 2 years before we can really say how well or badly a country has done. Yes they have higher deaths in first wave but may have an easier 2nd wave and no 3rd wave (for example). Many countries e.g Czech republic were praised for their low deaths in first wave ( including in U.K. media) but now having a terrible time. So it,’s not straight forward imo.

Yes, I don't mean this is a callous way but in about two years it will be interesting to see what the results are. I'm hearing the eurovision announcer voice in my head now. Can we have the results of the sweeedish jury now please.

But hopefully they will be able to establish what's best for your person per kilometre, person per household, along with the age profile of your country and the icu beds available and the next time there's a zoonotic virus :-/ (it's going to happen) there'll be less disruption.

Hopefully you are right OwlOne because if we get another pandemic in a few years (or less) we won‘t be able to throw money at it like the government have done this time.

I think the Swedish might not be saying ‘sod it, I’m having 11 people over for Christmas’ not due to their high levels of compliance and good behaviour but because the Swedish strategy doesn’t produce lockdown fatigue. They, on the whole, trust their government and buy in to the more relaxed but longer term measures.

This is deliberate and well thought out by the Swedish government. They know they are in they are in is for the long haul. They need to focus on what measures they think work and will be adopted and followed for the longest time.

I’m not saying we could have done that here. But can’t we look at that recent graph on deaths from Sweden and conclude that they are not having a deadly second wave like many other countries and try to explore why and try to learn from them? Yes infection rates are going up and following the natural curve of a pandemic but do they have some protection? If not from antibiotics but t-cells? Could that not be key? Or maybe there are other factors at play.

but because the Swedish strategy doesn’t produce lockdown fatigue

I think this is very important. And exactly what the Swedish authorities understood from the start.

I’m in Ireland, on our second lockdown, which we’ve been bribed into with the promise of ‘Christmas’. When restrictions are lifted, people will go nuts. If we’d pursued a less extreme policy, the need would not have been so strong. We’ll be Spain before we know it.

Like I said, just because Europeans think all Asians look alike doesn’t mean they have genetic similarities to the point of a massive region of billions has done better against Covid as a result of their genes. It’s racist to even suggest it and I stand by it

This isn’t about what people look like this is about their blood group or genetics/Dna/ancestry or as SarahMused has said climate, seasonality, humidity, obesity, age and health of population, air pollution etc
and I don’t see what the problem is in saying that.
To shut down even speculation I think is dangerous.

From what I have seen from family to family there are families that have been devastated by deaths due to Covid whilst other families with elderly and seriously ill members have all got Covid but all survived.

climate, seasonality, humidity, obesity, age and health of population, air pollution etc

And exposure to other corona viruses, which may have built some immunity.

I’m not sure it’s worth it though.

@SarahMused

Hopefully you are right OwlOne because if we get another pandemic in a few years (or less) we won‘t be able to throw money at it like the government have done this time.

Exactly. The money wont be there the n3xt time and people will think ofgs i survived the last virus, fed up of this nonsense.

The n3xt time, there will be less money and less compliance.

It could be a more fatal virus. Who knows

@sashagabadon I agree if eliminating the virus is your goal. But that hasn’t been the goal in Europe as too hard and too expensive and politically too difficult to sustain. Can you imagine the push back if Boris had not allowed UK citizens to return to the UK and charging them thousands of pounds for forced quarantined a la new Zealand ?! No way would that have stood politically, hundreds of sad media stories about split up families and unable to pay for quarantine ( one rule for rich etc, sad faces, disproportionately affecting BAME - this policy could easily have led to his downfall)

Not correct. NZ citizens and PR are permitted to reenter the country and quarantine free of charge. The only people who need to pay are those who now voluntarily leave the country for e.g. holiday or business. If you have to leave to visit sick or dying relatives you get a humanitarian exception.

But that’s surely 80% of the population? A tiny proportion might need to leave or arrive due to suck or dying relatives but everyone is stuck

Everyone else is stuck. My point is that politically that is a no go for us here in a country of 66 millions with loads of people with relatives overseas and loads of people that want to travel for holiday or business

I see there are violent protests now in Spain and France. People just won’t comply with lockdowns indefinitely with no end date. There needs to be a long term strategy.

@Delatron

I see there are violent protests now in Spain and France. People just won’t comply with lockdowns indefinitely with no end date. There needs to be a long term strategy.

How can we make a long-term strategy for a problem that we've never encountered before, will people still be protesting in the streets when hospitals are overwhelmed and they have relatives at home dying?

I don’t think any country has the answer but when you have huge levels of non compliance and massive crowds of people protesting and rioting then you need to think of another strategy. It’s not working...

@Delatron

I don’t think any country has the answer but when you have huge levels of non compliance and massive crowds of people protesting and rioting then you need to think of another strategy. It’s not working...

Maybe that is the strategy, the government protects itself and the rich people like them and leaves the rest of us to it? the government does not care about the citizens it just manages and controls them for its own benefit

I do think we should have shut down a week before we did but as soon as the weather started to heat up lockdown should have been lifted.

Then we should have been able to go out and work and generally carry on life as normal

That way if we needed to lock down again for a few weeks in winter we weren’t all sick of the whole thing and it wouldn’t have been a problem.

Looking at Sweden’s deaths even multiplied up to correspond with our population it is less than ours. Yes we are over crowded here in the UK but given our lockdown it looks like our numbers are continuing to rise and Sweden’s (apart from one blip in Stockholm) are continuing to fall.

Spain and Italy are in a worse position even though they had a much more severe lock down

There is going to be a certain number of deaths whether like Sweden in the beginning or like other countries that locked down further in the future. Except stretched out over years more people are going to be getting it and ultimately that will lead to more deaths

Locking down earlier just means a bigger second peak.

I think that we should have locked down slightly later, by a few days. It was a hard judgement to make at the time though, and the timing wasn't too bad.

It would have been best to have more infections over the summer to build up immunity when the NHS has excess capacity (no winter flu demands). Having both a flu and Covid demand at the same time isn't good.

On why Asia appears to have done better, there's a theory that the strain of covid prevalent in Asia is less infectious than the strain prevalent in Europe. See e.g. www.biospace.com/article/mutated-covid-19-viral-strain-in-us-and-europe-much-more-contagious/

The economist covered this a while ago but I haven't heard much about it since.

It's difficult to compare countries but I think Sweden does show that not locking down doesn't necessarily lead to Armageddon.

@TheKeatingFive

but because the Swedish strategy doesn’t produce lockdown fatigue

I think this is very important. And exactly what the Swedish authorities understood from the start.

I’m in Ireland, on our second lockdown, which we’ve been bribed into with the promise of ‘Christmas’. When restrictions are lifted, people will go nuts. If we’d pursued a less extreme policy, the need would not have been so strong. We’ll be Spain before we know it.

The policies of Australia, New Zealand, much of Asia, and the Isle of Man didn''t produce lockdown 'fatigue' either.

Difference between them and Sweden is they took effective containment measures - and therefore saved lives, the economy, and protected people from the potential long-term disability of Long Covid.

@Chessie678

On why Asia appears to have done better, there's a theory that the strain of covid prevalent in Asia is less infectious than the strain prevalent in Europe. See e.g. www.biospace.com/article/mutated-covid-19-viral-strain-in-us-and-europe-much-more-contagious/

The economist covered this a while ago but I haven't heard much about it since.

It's difficult to compare countries but I think Sweden does show that not locking down doesn't necessarily lead to Armageddon.

The strain issue isn’t a theory - it’s a fact according to our health officials here. Which is why there is testing at the airport for inbound arrivals and a strictly enforced 14 day quarantine.

Europe released everyone for summer holidays across the continent and then had them put their children straight into school.

The policies of Australia, New Zealand, much of Asia, and the Isle of Man didn''t produce lockdown 'fatigue' either

But how long can people stay locked down.

I know more people who have committed suicide because of the type of lockdowns these countries had than I know who have died of Covid
They just couldn’t see an end to it all. A few even when the country had supposedly opened up, their freedom was still restricted and they just couldn’t cope without having an end in sight

I don’t think we will know exactly how we will have done till a few years from now.

I don’t think a lockdown will do anything apart from making the figures go down for a few weeks but then they will be worse than ever after that.

I do think Sweden’s approach looks like it was the right thing to do and now looks like after having initially terrible figures regarding death rates, apart from a small spike centred around Stockholm it appears to be falling and if anything places like Spain and Italy look set to be in a worse position despite their harsher lockdowns.

We I think have missed the boat.
We should have been out and about, still doing SD and wearing a mask etc but back to some sort of normal. Instead we face going into the winter with the virus and flu all around and people simply cannot afford another lockdown.
I think people underestimate just how any people work in hospitality and the gig economy and don’t have the reliance on a set wage that can be earned by working from home.

@Delatron

I think the Swedish might not be saying ‘sod it, I’m having 11 people over for Christmas’ not due to their high levels of compliance and good behaviour but because the Swedish strategy doesn’t produce lockdown fatigue. They, on the whole, trust their government and buy in to the more relaxed but longer term measures.

This is deliberate and well thought out by the Swedish government. They know they are in they are in is for the long haul. They need to focus on what measures they think work and will be adopted and followed for the longest time.

I’m not saying we could have done that here. But can’t we look at that recent graph on deaths from Sweden and conclude that they are not having a deadly second wave like many other countries and try to explore why and try to learn from them? Yes infection rates are going up and following the natural curve of a pandemic but do they have some protection? If not from antibiotics but t-cells? Could that not be key? Or maybe there are other factors at play.

Sweden's approach is relying on people being responsible and using common sense. In the UK hive an inch and half a million people descend on a beach and there's raves house parties everywhere.

The populations are completely different as are the countries.

I’m in Ireland, on our second lockdown, which we’ve been bribed into with the promise of ‘Christmas’. When restrictions are lifted, people will go nuts. If we’d pursued a less extreme policy, the need would not have been so strong. We’ll be Spain before we know it.

I agree a promise of celebration like this will be an issue.

Yeh, and the govt just mean you can have your family round for a turkey and the trimmings even though that may be however many households.

The promise of Christmas is probably being seen as more than it can be. No Christmas parties. when I think back to last year! We had a meal for our team, a party for our floor, the whole company / building hired a venue. I can't see my organisation organising anything this year. Even if they wanted to, it'd be too hard to find somewhere.
Christmas will be a damp squib.