Damning report about Sweden

[CovidHalloween]

I’ve read a lot of hot air about Sweden’s “amazing” approach to the virus on here before.
The Times has just released a report on how badly Sweden has managed the virus and how it has one of the highest deaths per capita.

time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/

And yes, the more strict any lockdown, the higher and more deadly any following wave. You simply cannot eliminate the virus (without vaccine).
And the stricter and more frequent the lockdown, the worse the impact on the economy will be.

That does seem to be true, though of course the second wave isn't finished yet. And of course that doesn't quite fit with the UK's figures now as the lockdown was never like Spain, Italy, France, China etc, yet the figures yet again look to be heading to be the worst.

@Lavendersy

What is the point in criticising Sweden's approach when the UK has done worse than Sweden, both in terms of deaths per capita and economic downturn?

I personally prefer the more liberal Swedish approach without enforced lockdowns.

I think it's interesting to talk about Sweden because so many people think they did OK, when they really really didn't.

[quote jasjas1973]@CuriousaboutSamphire

All we have is the raw data to look at how countries have managed, inc the UK.... in 5 / 10 years time, it will all be too late, a long forgotten pandemic with Johnson and Hammond in the Lords, beyond revoke.[/quote]
What we have isn't the point! We can read, opine, cavil all we want.

And individual politicians don't interest me either.

Far too much posturing, misunderstanding, rage and bluster.

All that interests me, all that raises concern in me, is how we, governments, individuals, react to the ever changing recommendations, based on the science based on the raw data available globally.

I think it would be fair to say that I have 'popular opinion fatigue'. Too many threads being told how despicable I am. In February that I was fairly unspeakable because I said I could see us still being under restrictions well into winter this year continuing into next year and maybe beyond. This weekend I was fucking awful because I tried to explain some of the confounding variables behind some of the more lurid headlines.

I am defeated! I can't imagine how scared, angry, baffled many people are. I just know that I have had enough of the endless, poorly informed discussions and positing of flawed suggestions - as though the speaker has some insight that scientists the world over hadn't thought of!

I know enough to know that there is currently no right answer and we have to do what seems right at the time.

Isn’t the point about Sweden that although they have higher deaths per million than their neighbours (significantly so) we don’t know yet whether a measure of population immunity will be of longer term benefit, even with a vaccine whose efficacy is as yet unknown?

I think in fairness to Sweden, the fact that the majority of their population have not had to suffer the loss of freedom (at best) and outright hardship (at worst) of hard lockdown is a point in their favour and needs to be factored into any assessment of their approach.

Completely agree @FractionalGains

We need to look at the whole picture in a few years time.

Let’s not underestimate the impact multiple lockdowns have had on the population in terms of health/ wellbeing/ livelihoods lost/ educational impact/ cancer diagnoses being missed/ child poverty/ domestic abuse. I could go on but we know the cost is huge.

If Sweden come out this with a lower death rate than any country that locked down then for them, the strategy worked. But we won’t be able to establish that for a few years.

We don’t know if anyone has done ‘ok’ yet! We’re half way through a global pandemic.

We don’t even know if New Zealand have done well yet. This is not over by a long way.

I don't see how we can compare countries when they all seem to have different criteria for what counts as a Covid death. It's going to take a big wash up before we know whose approaches worked best.

@Oliversmumsarmy

I feel the same. Why on earth did we think having a second wave in Autumn to coincide with the flu season was a good idea? I thought the whole point was to reduce pressure on the NHS? Getting through this in July and August would have been preferable.

It does now seem inevitable that countries who locked down hard and avoided a first wave are now harder hit like the Czech Republic. What does this tell us about the virus? We need to keep learning.

It seems to me the virus had an inevitable path no matter what measures you take. Unless you have followed eradication policy from day 1.

@CuriousaboutSamphire

One cannot dismiss the effects individuals have on public compliance & confidence, people are scared because they feel the Govt have lost any semblance of leadership.

Many countries have done far better than the UK and its just not good enough to say "we are halfway through, we don't know yet...." if you have suffered a unnecessary CV death, that is of little comfort.

Scientific opinion is not one voice and we have a PM who has never taken anything very seriously, let alone Covid.

But sure, you are correct, we have months more of ever harsher restrictions.

@Delatron

I don’t think I we can make judgements on any country yet. We’re not out of this. Give it a few years and see how we’re all doing then. And I mean in terms economy, mental health, amount of businesses that collapsed..How many lockdowns each country had to go through and the issues lockdown caused.

I agree I think it's too early to call it yet

And yet Sweden is on track to have little or no excess deaths this year.

This, despite their early mistakes in care homes and having lived with very few restrictions this year.

emanuelkarlsten.se/number-of-deaths-in-sweden-during-the-pandemic-compared-to-previous-years-mortality/

@Oliversmumsarmy

All this shows is those countries that didn’t do a hard lock down had higher deaths initially but those that did lock down are just pushing the inevitable down the road and as soon as everything opened up deaths escalated

If we opened everything up again, practiced SD and wearing masks and let those who are vulnerable stay indoors then it would be over a lot quicker and have fewer deaths overall than this prolonged agony that is being imposed atm.

We should have done this in the summer when those that had been infected and survived were still immune and we were not battling through normal winter colds

How does everything carry on as normal when we "let those who are vulnerable stay indoors"?

What about vulnerable doctors, nurses, teachers, university lecturers, paramedics, bus/train drivers, and all manner of other workers? What about vulnerable parents, grandparents, carers, etc? You're basically saying entire households containing vulnerable people have to stay inside. Who teaches them? Who does their work? etc.

You've fallen into the trap of thinking "the vulnerable" are just old people who are near the end of their lives anyway and don't actually do anything productive. That's completely wrong. There are extremely clinically vulnerable people in young/middle aged who are doing important work. There are millions of "vulnerable" and if we told them to stay indoors the country would grind to a halt, healthcare would collapse, education would collapse.

The answer (until a vaccine) is to find a balance so as to protect the vulnerable as far as possible, whilst at the same time, keeping the essential services operational. That's a very hard balance to find.

[quote jasjas1973]@CuriousaboutSamphire

One cannot dismiss the effects individuals have on public compliance & confidence, people are scared because they feel the Govt have lost any semblance of leadership.

Many countries have done far better than the UK and its just not good enough to say "we are halfway through, we don't know yet...." if you have suffered a unnecessary CV death, that is of little comfort.

Scientific opinion is not one voice and we have a PM who has never taken anything very seriously, let alone Covid.

But sure, you are correct, we have months more of ever harsher restrictions.[/quote]
If that is how you want to see it then fine.

But I can't see how any country can be judged before this is over. Too many variables, cpnfounding and otherwise. A country that did well in the first wave may be absolutely sunk by the second, third... Economies that have managed this far may crash, those that are tanking may find new ways of workng out sooner (or later) than we currently think possible. There is no way of knowing.

It's a bit like that saying about changing horses mid stream... or grass being greener etc.

I suppose that, despite having lost a loved on to covid complications, I do focus on us only being part way through this. I can't see how comfort can be taken from any of it!

Scientific opinion is not one voice No shit, Sherlock!

we have a PM who has never taken anything very seriously, let alone Covid. Whilst I am not a Tory I really can't see what the point of that is!

Sweden - 10,343,403 population - 5933 deaths - 0.057%

Nicola ‘no-nonsense’ Sturgeon's Scotland - 5,404,700 population - 2699 deaths - 0.050%

Not a lot of difference there to be fair.

I’m not convinced that going in & out of harsher lockdowns as opposed to a rolling constant/something that requires less profound tweaking is the answer.

Badbadbunny

Maybe I should have said scared instead of vulnerable

Apart from one family who haven’t been out since March (not elderly or in the “vulnerable“ group) Everyone I know is so over this disease. The younger ones don’t care and the older ones are just pissed off that they can’t live their lives.

Even in the really elderly they still have an 84% chance of surviving this disease. It is no where near a death sentence if they catch it.

Dp is in the vulnerable group (Stage 4 bowel cancer and type 1 diabetic) There is no way he wants to stay in again.
Even he has had this disease and came through it.

I wonder what happens in 2 weeks whether Wales will get the firebreak it wants given schools are still open.

The list of premises closed, pubs, restaurants, shops etc were not responsible for the rise this time round in the first place but universities and schools remain open

Even in the really elderly they still have an 84% chance of surviving this disease.

That's a whopping 16% death risk. Would you go on a plane of 100 people if you knew that 16 wouldn't survive the flight?

Is this the weekly 'we must find fault with Sweden' thread?

At 80+ I’d be happy with that risk. 84% chance of surviving. Brilliant.

Lockdown fatigue is a real thing. Compliance is getting lower and lower here (and in France and Spain). Imagine locking children away for 6 weeks then realising it was pointless and you are hit by a very hard second wave. I’d be pretty non-compliant by now too. You keep people locked up without social contact for months. What do we think happens when you release them all?

Sweden do not have lockdown fatigue so are willing to comply with the more relaxed measures for the long term.

@toxtethOgradyUSA

Is this the weekly 'we must find fault with Sweden' thread?

Yes. There'll be its sister thread somewhere close by

Oh why, oh why can we not be more like Sweden?

Badbadbunny

Even in the really elderly they still have an 84% chance of surviving this disease

That's a whopping 16% death risk. Would you go on a plane of 100 people if you knew that 16 wouldn't survive the flight

From the elderly I know they would be marching up the stairs on to the plane just to get away from this restrictive madness and to a place where they can live a life doing what they want.

If I was in that group you bet I would be on that plane rather than living this half life we have at the moment

I wonder if those in the 16% figure were made up of just people who died of Covid or those people who died within 28 days of getting Covid.

I do know of someone’s grandad who survived Covid but then got run over and his death was put down as Covid as it was within 28 days of him testing positive.The fact he tested negative 14 days later and was free of Covid was ignored

It's a lot higher than 80%, unless you are 80+, are male, and have an underlying condition.

Sweden's approach has worked to a degree . . . for Sweden. Different culture, small population, large country, less disobedience.

@starfro

Only a month ago, Czechia could have been held up as an exemplar.... By December things could be far worse in Sweden. In June, Sweden was by the worst in Europe for cases and deaths, and we were told how they’d failed...

We won’t be able to pass judgement for another year or so.