Neil Ferguson saying schools may close

[Orangeblossom7777]

On the BBC - older ones he says. Will they listen to him though now he got kicked off Sage? I thought the plan for for part time in secondary not closing if cases rose very high? Hoping this doesn't happen DC mid GCSEs and already missed loads.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54673558

I believe what I see and hear in real life more than some emotional hyperbole on MN. My first-hand experience tells me that the teachers in our community prefer schools to be open for business

angelina I think being in the South East is quite vital. In the North west most teachers I know desperately want schools to be open. But colleagues are getting diagnosed with Covid as are pupils and their parents.
It’s very likely that come November and December we won’t have the staff to open to all year groups.

Wanting schools to remain open is easy. Actually keeping them open is far more complicated.

The problem here is that in certain places we may find ourselves in a situation where schools are closed due to staffing shortages (due to isolation or child care problems) combined with actual positive cases in the school closing bubbles and they may not be able to open due to the sheer number of cases in the area.

This causes knock on effects because school closures result in vulnerable children being completely out of school unlike earlier in the year and keyworker children not being in school when they have had no contact with a positive case.

To give a few numbers on this.

The Liverpool Echo reported the week before last that 199 out of 200 school in the city area of Liverpool had been affected by some sort of closure. The Manchester Evening News has reported that one Yr10 group in a G Manchester school is on its third two week isolation since the start of term. My understanding of the situation is it is particularly acute in certain hotspots already and combined with issues at the hospitals this is a problem.

Liverpool City Hospital NHS Trust was reporting last week that staff absence was running at 7% because of staff isolating and having to stay home with children isolating.

So it looks like there is a problem with how the school closures are affecting the NHS which does beg the question of whether you need to switch back to the April System in order to ensure that key worker children are in smaller groups sizes less likely to be impacted by isolation issues in areas where there is a big hotspot and the NHS is struggling.

The fact that there is strategic planning to close schools suggests its under consideration.

There was also an article in the Guardian the other day in which the headline was that some schools have had 80% of their laptop for deprived children slashed. That sounds awful, but buried in the article was the point that areas with a high number of cases were being prioritised. That suggests to me theres a shortage of laptops overall and there is preparation for immenent closures to occur in certain places so those schools can't wait for laptops whereas other schools will have to.

So national school closures are unlikely to be on the cards. But we are going to get a possible Tier 4 level of restrictions which includes school closures in the weeks and months ahead.

Whilst the guy in the OP might be discredited, i do have to say whats happening at local level in some places and what the government appear to be quietly doing suggests to me that it is on the cards and is being seriously considered as a way to help drop rates much more quickly than T3 restrictions can do.

Indeed SAGE have said that in some areas T3 restrictions will be insufficient to drop the R below 1. So are T3 restrictions really where things are going to end before winter is out?

We had 20 teachers and 10 support staff off last week. Half term came at just the right time, but we can’t keep all year groups in if this continues.

@Angelinasbicycle

Someone has disagreed with you and you adopt that pompous and self righteous tone.

I agree with this. @noblegiraffe claimed that I was lying, which is very rude and, ironically, untrue. Thankfully MN deleted her post .

Oh, you'll be able to provide links to the posts with the quotes that you claimed in them then?

Then you shouldn't be saying it, regardless of what the powers that be say.

If I said anything else I’d be hauled in front of the head and I’d be in a lot of trouble.

Every week we have to call the parents of the children in our form classes. Every week I tell parents how great things are; how settled the class is; how safe we all feel at school and how much I am enjoying being back with their children.

That's a shame @allDBML. It plays out quite differently for us. As I said schools in our area are expanding bubble on their own volition, not the councils or the government's. If they were very worried they'd keep bubbles as small as possible.

They won't close years 10-13 because of exams next summer!

Thanks for that post Redtoothbrush certainly how it’s been in the NW from my experience. My dd has been out of school more than she has been in this term.

@DBML

Then you shouldn't be saying it, regardless of what the powers that be say.

If I said anything else I’d be hauled in front of the head and I’d be in a lot of trouble.

Then keep the call factual on what you are doing and don't make the world rosey if it isn't.

I was just talking about this on another thread. Heads and teachers cannot be honest about whether they think the situation is safe or not because they have to manage the anxieties of their staff, parents and children.

They don't have the power to change anything, so what will telling them the measures are inadequate achieve?

Then they come on MN and post what they really think and they're lambasted by posters saying 'all the teachers I know talk about how happy they are to be back in the classroom' not realising that maybe it's those same teachers that are posting.

That's a shame @allDBML. It plays out quite differently for us. As I said schools in our area are expanding bubble on their own volition, not the councils or the government's. If they were very worried they'd keep bubbles as small as possible.

That sadly might not be true Angelinasbicycle.
Our school is badly affected and this is one of the reasons we are closing bubbles. Staffing shortages have forced us to put two classes together. Because pupils are missing out big-time during school time, we are trying to mitigate this by allowing after school revision lessons to resume. Wet breaks need to be indoors so year groups are coming into contact.

In order to do all this, we say that it’s progress. We post on social media how well we are doing and we sell it all as a positive move and not at all what it really is.
I’m sorry, but we are all being let down massively and problems are being hidden, because of the competition between schools and league tables.

It’s very likely that come November and December we won’t have the staff to open to all year groups.
And that has to be dealt with on a case by case basis. Not with a national lockdown of all schools.

Oh, you'll be able to provide links to the posts with the quotes that you claimed in them then?
Come off it @noblegiraffe. This is a MN discussion not a dissertation where I have to cite my sources to lend credibility to my argument .

You are free to believe what I post or not (!) but you are not entitled to call me a lier to discredit my post. It's rude and against talk guidelines.

@noblegiraffe

That’s sadly what I do. Paste a smile on my face and pretend all is rosy...then come here to vent and relieve some of my frustrations.

It’s very likely that come November and December we won’t have the staff to open to all year groups

And that has to be dealt with on a case by case basis. Not with a national lockdown of all schools.

The problem will come is when some children have had eg 13 weeks of in schools learning by Christmas and others have had 7. When it comes to exams-there will be disparity and unfairness.

@noblegiraffe

I was just talking about this on another thread. Heads and teachers cannot be honest about whether they think the situation is safe or not because they have to manage the anxieties of their staff, parents and children.

They don't have the power to change anything, so what will telling them the measures are inadequate achieve?

Then they come on MN and post what they really think and they're lambasted by posters saying 'all the teachers I know talk about how happy they are to be back in the classroom' not realising that maybe it's those same teachers that are posting.

OMG - this is my life at the moment.

It’s awful, just awful. Only my close family know my true feelings. Most just think it’s all fine. Maybe if I was in the South East it actually would be fine. But it’s awful in the North West right now.

That sadly might not be true Angelinasbicycle. Our school is badly affected and this is one of the reasons we are closing bubbles.

Our schools are expanding bubbles, which fits in with decreasing number of people testing positive in our area. At your school, bubbles may have to close temporally maybe even all bubbles, but that should take no longer than 14 days at the most. That's fine and a proportionate response but national school closures would be killing a fly with a sledge hammer.

Maybe if I was in the South East it actually would be fine. But it’s awful in the North West right now. I'm very sorry to hear that . I hope the situation in the North West improves.

When it comes to exams-there will be disparity and unfairness.

But closing down all schools will lead to more unfairness. Many children don't have the necessary space or technology to work at home.

I guess we could keep schools open for years 10-13 to prep Athen for exams.

The lower years could stay at home?

Sorry @Angelinasbicycle

That’s not what I meant. Reading back, I rushed that out. I don’t mean that we are shutting bubbles or sending year groups off, I mean we are expanding them...eg joint groups together or allowing year groups to mix. We say it’s down to wonderful progress and the safety measures in our school...it’s actually due to staff shortages.

Sorry meant to say

We could keep years 10-13 in schools to prepare them for exams

I'm very sorry to hear that. I hope the situation in the North West improves

Thanks Angelina I appreciate it. I have a horrible feeling it’s going to get worse before it gets better.

@Sunflowers246

Sorry meant to say

We could keep years 10-13 in schools to prepare them for exams

Isn’t that where most spread is? Plus at that age they should be able to use remote or blended learning far better as there is already a lot of home study for home work etc so space, equipment etc already in place for most.

It was a scaremongering headline. The bbc is becoming less a go to re Covid.

From a purely educational point of view - we want all children in school all of the time. What we might have to accept is

(1) all children in education full time
(2) some children physically in school regularly but not full time

Its not what anyone wants, but doing (2) in a controlled way is likely to be much better for giving children uninterrupted education than having uncontrolled closures due to isolation and sickness, which is what's happening now in areas with high infection rates.

Of course the schools must stay open. We cannot sacrifice absolutely everything to prevent Covid, I'm afraid. What's the answer if no vaccine emerges, or it isn't that effective? We can't stop everything in life to protect people from this. The virus is here and we need to take proportionate steps to mitigate risk. Shutting down everything again will achieve nothing and the action would be completely disproportionate. How long would it last and when would they reopen? And once they reopen, we are back to square one. They may drive transmission, yes, but the consequences of closing everything are so hideous that they outweigh the benefits.