More evidence that schools don’t drive a rise in infections?

[notevenat20]

www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/health/coronavirus-schools-children.html

OP

As the saying goes

'Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence'

The fall *after mass testing and significant SIs in Unis ) is in the 18-21 age group specifically FYI

What we're seeing is case numbers coming down quite quickly in a narrow age band, in 18-21 year olds," he said.
"Unfortunately in every other age group case numbers continue to rise at about the same rate they were."

Bold fail but hopefully you can see the quoted part.

Reasons for increase
Holidays abroad.
People returned from holidays there are only 5w of holidays so loads would have returned within 2w of school starting. Even if they did quarantine they still had the virus and that would have meant

• going for tests

-some people getting treatment -so some spread

• Just in bristol area 2 people returned from holiday didnt isolate and started outbreaks

Scotland returned to school in August
Some northern england did too
Lotsof parents didnt quarantine. Some countries didnt require it with people returning days before and sending kids into a non sd classroom. Basically the need for masks is to protect others from each other's choices.
Once we know it's bac k to school as usual everyone started more socialising in August. And now because schools are back loads are going in other parent's cars and houses. So ignoring that we should be SD! I think like another thread the 6 has stuck but not the SD
Even if no u18 could spread covid the issue would remain that they spread colds and flus and

• Testing
• Infect rest of their family
• Result in 4+ covid tests

If there is a cut off at 10 as pp say it is being ignored. as at our school the after school club has all ks2 so those yr 5 and 6 are infecting the yr 3 and 4s. It maybe many of the issues in primary couldbe linked back to secondary siblings or teacher s? So the argument then is stronger that more needs to be done to stop transmission in secondary

New york has considerably higher immunity than anywhere in uk. Their kids from early primary in masks so probably on transport etc.

But seriously you need to stop starting threads spouting crap, when you have no understanding of the situation.

Although criticism is welcome, I couldn't work out if you don't believe the graph was accurate or interpreted it differently from me?

I think we need to stop talking about schools as one.
We need to break it down into age ranges and then talk.
There’s too much skew in the data either way

I think we need to stop talking about schools as one. We need to break it down into age ranges and then talk.

Yes I agree. It really does seem that the infectiousness of children starts very low and increases until they are adults.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence

That's a uniquely unhelpful phrase if misused. You can use to argue for the existence of tiny dancing green goblins in your front room.

Schools may need to close to some year groups, former adviser warns (from Prof Neil Ferguson)

He was referring to the latter years in secondary school. But really what I got from him was that we are running out of good options, sadly.

@notevenat20

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence

That's a uniquely unhelpful phrase if misused. You can use to argue for the existence of tiny dancing green goblins in your front room.

You mean like linking it to "dancing green goblins"?

We all should know by now that the government is not testing in schools.

They are not testing asymptomatic cases. Yet schools are being linked to the rise in cases.

It would be interesting to see what the numbers would be (either way) if testing in schools were the norm.

It would be interesting to see what the numbers would be (either way) if testing in schools were the norm

Yes although the important question is how often infected children infect adults. Locally there have been lots of children sent home from school but few infected parents it seems.

But really what I got from him was that we are running out of good options, sadly.

If only we hadn’t opened schools in a completely unsafe way. If only action was being taken to make them safer.

If only we hadn’t opened schools in a completely unsafe way. If only action was being taken to make them safer

I don't think schools are driving infections. The second wave seems to be happening all by itself.

I don't think schools are driving infections. The second wave seems to be happening all by itself

All by itself. Nothing to do with proximity of humans. Got it.

Magic, innit

The second wave seems to be happening all by itself.

All by itself. Nothing to do with proximity of humans. Got it.

:) Without the help of open schools, in case it wasn't clear.

I don't think schools are driving infections. The second wave seems to be happening all by itself.

I think this has descended into the depths of magical thinking now!

The link between schools and spread is currently trending top of BBC News.

Without the help of open schools, in case it wasn't clear

Because....

I hink this has descended into the depths of magical thinking now! The link between schools and spread is currently trending top of BBC News.

I realise it's big in the news. But the fact is that the exponential rise in hospitalisations predates schools reopening. See the graph (sorry if you saw it here).

There is no way to explain that graph in terms of schools reopening.

It is possible, in fact likely, that older secondary school children are part of the general epidemic. But I don't think it's possible to say that schools reopening started or drove this second wave.

And how do you explain this graph. not, if schools aren’t an issue?

Given that we know the worst infection rates are in young people in education, why the denial that educational settings are contributing to the rises in those age groups?

There were 30 cases in a local secondary's year 13 where they had been keeping year groups completely separate. I guess all those teenagers must have something other than their school linking them....

In a fair proportion of the UK schools return in August....

Also, you can't dismiss the psychological message given to students and parents in an immanent returning to crowded stuffy classrooms with no masks or social distancing. A lot of people thought "sod it, what's the point in obeying all the rules when they are just being shoved back in classrooms in a week or so". And behaved accordingly.

"A lot of people thought "sod it, what's the point in obeying all the rules when they are just being shoved back in classrooms in a week or so". And behaved accordingly." To be fair, I know a lot of people who realised they needed to ease their children back to a bit of normality if they were going to cope with being in non-socially distant classrooms. We were absolutely stringent about social distancing, but they needed to start doing some group sport, etc (within the guidelines but still more "risky" than our stringent social distancing) before going back to school as it would have been totally overwhelming for them to be shoved up against 150 other kids in their bubbles when they had only left the house to walk in the woods for six months.