More evidence that schools don’t drive a rise in infections?

[notevenat20]

www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/health/coronavirus-schools-children.html

From another thread but here is some evidence op.

It makes the point that in the 10+ age group the key is robust distancing

This is key. Secondaries and primaries are different, distancing is needed in secondaries, UK doesn't have that, so the article doesn't apply to the UK setting.

So basically - it backs up the fact that UK secondaries are a problem.

This graph in particular influenced me a lot. Notice that it looks like things might be improving in the last week or two (fingers crossed).

This chart shows cases coming down in the 10-19 age group:

Keep an eye out for results of the next phase of the UK sKIDS study.

@sunflowers246

That's a very worrying graph. We really don't want to see the numbers of over 70s going up like that. I assume the govt has seen this and that is causing their panic.

@lljkk That doesn't look at child to adult transmission does it? That seems to be the key question for which the preliminary evidence is good news.

That seems to be the key question for which the preliminary evidence is good news

The preliminary evidence is inconclusive and only about those under 10.

Fixed it for you.

Except we reopened schools and saw an immediate increase in transmission. And we have daily cases of positive cases in schools and an abundance of published literature showing children can be infected. There’s no scientific basis why COVID-19 wouldn’t be able to pass from adults to children. Difference in symptoms yes but on a cellular level the virus is going to infect and transmit exactly the same way.

@sunflowers246

This chart shows cases coming down in the 10-19 age group:

In a lot of the country last week was half term. It will be interesting to see if that fall off is even more dramatic next week with more schools closed.

It might give us a bit of breathing space to get through the next half term if it does fall. The next half term will be tough as cold and flu season starts to get going and pressure on testing will make it harder and harder for us to keep going. We had one or two weeks this term that we’re tough (and expensive) to staff because some of our staff had to wait 5 days for test results. If they’d had their results in 24 hours the days of absences and cover costs would have been a fraction of what they ended up being. If we have a few quiet weeks after half term then we might just about make it to Christmas.

@sunflowers246

This chart shows cases coming down in the 10-19 age group:

No, it shows the number of confirmed cases coming down in the 10-19 group. Given the mass testing in that age group a couple of weeks ago, that would account for the spike and drop.

The ONS random sampling shows that the infection rate in that age group remains fairly steady.

As you have been told before.

@MrsHerculePoirot

😂😂😂 Have you even read this? And their actual recommendations for opening schools based on this.

It practically fully supports what teachers have been saying since the start. In summary - masks should be worn, children should only attend school from zip/post codes with low or declining rates, large scale testing should be in place, contact tracing should be robust, social distancing measures should be in place and enhanced cleaning. They say families with vulnerable members should continue to have access to remote learning. And that if transmission continues to rise, especially linked to schools, they should revert to remote provision until under control again.

Thanks for sharing - glad to see you finally agree with what we’ve been saying for a few months!

🤣🤣🤣

lljkkThat doesn't look at child to adult transmission does it? That seems to be the key question for which the preliminary evidence is good news.
@sunflowers246 graph does though as do the heat maps.

Well, at least you put a question mark at the end of your OP.

My cousin teaches in NYC. It is not remotely (pun intended) comparable to the situation in UK schools.

Not downloaded whole report so apologies but the transmission rates were low during the summer when most kids weren't in school and those that were in small bubbles. Very reassurring!

Sorry I think I misread first quote. Apologies

As pps have said the message to take is that, in secondary, we need more physical distancing and more openmindedness about learning in a range of different settings, including home.

I think the drop in the 10-19 line is the university mass testing wave coming to an end.

@Northernsoulgirl45

Not downloaded whole report so apologies but the transmission rates were low during the summer when most kids weren't in school and those that were in small bubbles. Very reassurring!

Yes, the data suggests that the conditions in June didn't result in increased spread. The conditions now do, and this can't really be a surprise to anyone.

The mumsnet 'experts' and advocates of 'schools shouid be closed' gang will not like this
That didn't take long.

@Remmy123

The mumsnet 'experts' and advocates of 'schools shouid be closed' gang will not like this 😂

Agree that a balanced view is needed.

Here's a thread for the 'Let's try to keep schools open for longer by making them safer' gang.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4059472-Ways-to-make-schools-safer-without-closing-them

Cant read it but lol.
At this point only an idiot would deny that it's schools (and uni) fuelling this.

@notevenat20

Not sure how well you read the article,

I read it carefully. The truth is that there is no 100% solid proof yet so all decisions have to be made on the basis of the best guess so far.

Well, if you read it carefully and still decided to post it with that title then you’re a numpty

As far as the graphs go - most graphs show a downward shift in the last two weeks of the graph. This doesn’t indicate a downward trend but reflects the fact that there is a lag in testing.

@notevenat20

How can anyone think that since schools returned in September and the r rate has risen so much that the two are not at all connected ?

There is no obviously correct conclusion but I am influenced by the graphs showing the exponential increase starting on August 26.

Jesus wept. When will you stop wilfully misinterpreting everything you read?

What exactly is you agenda?

The UK data all shows a huge increase in cases/hospitalisations in the weeks after school/Uni went back. Even the Govt acknowledges this, but they need to find a way to back down from all schools will be open & all students will return to educational facilities.

They're just fine tuning how to blame schools/parents.

But seriously you need to stop starting threads spouting crap, when you have no understanding of the situation.

Just on BBC news: Covid-19: Schools may need to close to some year groups, former adviser warns (from Prof Neil Ferguson)

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54673558