What happens if they don't get a vaccine

[fuckrightoff]

Will this be the new life forever? Is it ever going to end

Will a vaccine even work on a big enough percentage? They don't always work on everyone and there's already stories of people getting this twice. I don't think it's a simple as just waiting for a vaccine.

Oh I don't know...perhaps the government who imposed the lockdown in the first place?! Or is that too much to ask?!

You can criticise the government for a lot (and I do) but criticising them for not knowing the end date of a new pandemic is unreasonable!

It doesn’t need to work on that many, just enough to bring the R down from above 1 to below 1.

It doesn’t need to work on that many, just enough to bring the R down from above 1 to below 1.

We could do that ourselves by each reducing the number of people we see by 25%.

Professor Sir Jeremy Farrar from SAGE and the Welcome Trust was on Newscast yesterday. He was advocating a short harder nationwide lockdown now to rein back the infection rates enough to carry us over the winter, but he was very clear that he was only advocating that because he expected significant breakthroughs in both vaccines and treatments in the first quarter of next year: that’s why it was worth going to huge lengths to repress the numbers now.

Professor Sir Jeremy Farrar from SAGE and the Welcome Trust was on Newscast yesterday. He was advocating a short harder nationwide lockdown now to rein back the infection rates enough to carry us over the winter

It's a sightly miserable deal being offered based on an uncertain bet.

Back in April our lockdown roughly halved the number of new infections every week. So after 2 weeks we would have one quarter of the infections we did at the start of the circuit break and then restart our exponential rise again getting back to where we were before in about 3-4 weeks.

I am sure this would mean fewer people dying of covid. But it's not great.

This ft article says near the end:

It is widely believed that any vaccine against Covid 19 will limit the damage caused by the disease, rather than prevent transmission.

Article obviously talks about only vaccinating over 50, health workers and care workers.

It’s not the panacea most people will be expecting in my

amp.ft.com/content/d2e00128-7889-4d5d-84a3-43e51355a751?__twitter_impression=true

@YellowishZebra

I honestly think vaccine or no vaccine, Social distancing with those outside you household will be here forever. Mandatory masks indoors in public will be here forever. But within 6-9 months we will be able to gather in unlimited numbers as long as social distancing is adhered to - meaning things like nightclubs theatres arena concerts sports crowds etc will be significantly reduced capacity so might not return due to cost.

I don’t agree

Society can’t function properly socially distanced. People won’t keep doing it, it’s nonsense.

@Fizbosshoes

Oh I don't know...perhaps the government who imposed the lockdown in the first place?! Or is that too much to ask?!

You can criticise the government for a lot (and I do) but criticising them for not knowing the end date of a new pandemic is unreasonable!

Well then why didn't they say "until the pandemic is over" if that's the case? I don't expect them to know the end date obviously, but THEY will have a figure we are aiming for in mind surely, for example R below 1 or all cases in country below 50 in 100'000 we have been told nothing apart from we need to halt the spread. When do they actually consider it halted?!

I'm really surprised that anyone believes there will be more effective treatments developed in the near future - flu has been researched for 100+ years and the treatments available are completely hit and miss. A with most viruses the treatment involves keeping the person's bodily functions going as best you can while the immune system fights the virus, then treating the immune system if that starts to get out of control (as it regularly does).

As for when all this will end, it will end when people realise that 'controlling a virus' is a complete nonsense that can never be achieved and that doing the same pointless, damaging things over and over (shutting businesses, denying people human contact) is a waste of time and of lives.

If people's egos weren't so invested in being right - and I include both politicians and scientists in this - we could just admit it right now and get on with life. But to serve their fragile sense of self worth we all have to suffer for an indeterminate amount of time. What fun.

@YellowishZebra ridiculous statement. How do you think mankind will continue

Well said @Qasd

@AKissAndASmile

How long did the Spanish flu epidemic last and did they have a vaccine? Of course this isn't forever!

..as a side point, I don’t expect take-up of the vaccine to be very high, but assuming it is available to those who choose to have it, life can continue without restrictions

Agree with this. I'm not having a rushed vaccine. The swine flu one caused narcolepsy to loads of people.

There never has been a vaccine for Spanish Flu, at the time they couldn't see the virus to make a vaccine, and it infected the majority, who either survived or died so herd immunity.

The MHRA can grant COVID vaccines temporary authorisation for use before it has been officially licensed provided it is shown as safe and effective. They will also continue to monitor after licensing, so hopefully it won't be long before one will pass all the trials. However side effects can be seen after the vaccines are available for use, simply because the studies have a small amount of people in them, in honesty 10,000 people is a tiny number to test a vaccine for public use

I'm really surprised that anyone believes there will be more effective treatments developed in the near future - flu has been researched for 100+ years and the treatments available are completely hit and miss.

If we had a vaccine for covid that was as effective as the seasonal flu vaccine, that might well bring R below 1.

@notevenat20

I'm really surprised that anyone believes there will be more effective treatments developed in the near future - flu has been researched for 100+ years and the treatments available are completely hit and miss.

If we had a vaccine for covid that was as effective as the seasonal flu vaccine, that might well bring R below 1.

A vaccine isn't a treatment - I'm talking about treating someone who has it, rather than trying to prevent it.

I hope we get a vaccine but from what I've read and heard the efficacy might only be 30-40% which won't be enough and the Oxford vaccine only stops you getting seriously ill, it doesn't stop the transmission of the virus so essentially makes you asymptomatic.

I do wonder how confident the government and it's scientists are bearing in mind they are looking at spending 100 billion on the 'moonshot' testing program - seems an awfully big amount to commit on an insurance policy unless they aren't confident in the vaccine at all.

Where have you heard or read that 30-40% is likely? I haven’t seen that figure anywhere.
Even if it was true for the Oxford vaccine, the chances that subsequent vaccines would improve on that seem pretty good.

@bathorshower

In answer to your question OP, other pandemics have largely receded after two years - that's the rough time frame for Spanish flu and the 1968 pandemic; by that point the combination of herd immunity and the virus mutating to something less lethal mean that the death rate falls right off.

I'd be the first to say I don't fancy two years of restrictions, but that's the time frame that similar diseases in the past point towards.

Those were flu pandemics, we developed herd immunity and they were no longer such a big issue. In history several pandemic causing viruses have become endemic. E.g. measles was phenomenally distructive after it emerged in the 11th century, and again when it arrived in the New World, 50% death rate in some places. But once it was endemic there were much smaller outbreaks only affecting children, that still killed 2.3M a year before the vaccine, now it's about 50K deaths a year but most people are vaccinated.

I think we'll be like this for another year to 18 months going in and out of lockdown. The only people I'm concerned about are those that live alone with no support bubble and those in abusive relationships, the rest of us can cope without being in the same room as extended family.

No! I can't cope for that long, I need to get back to my hobbies for the sake of my mental health.

new tests very close to being released as well - much faster results with accuracy

so that could help a lot at airports and hospitals etc

Even with a vaccine anyone under 50 not a key worker such as NHS or HMForces or vulnerable won't be getting it any time soon.
But at least if th elderly and vulnerable are protected you wont have to worry about infecting them.

@sally067

I hope we get a vaccine but from what I've read and heard the efficacy might only be 30-40% which won't be enough and the Oxford vaccine only stops you getting seriously ill, it doesn't stop the transmission of the virus so essentially makes you asymptomatic.

I do wonder how confident the government and it's scientists are bearing in mind they are looking at spending 100 billion on the 'moonshot' testing program - seems an awfully big amount to commit on an insurance policy unless they aren't confident in the vaccine at all.

They can't know what the efficacy is yet because they haven't unblinded the trials.

The presence of virus was in earlier animal trials, in which the chimp had been blasted with the virus, so understandable that there was residue in their nostrils. We won't know for sure until 75 people in the trial contract the virus and they can look at interim results.

1. transmission will eventually drop as more people become infected.

1. better treatments will be developed - several promising ones in trials.

1. everyone will finally start taking their vitamin d supplements.

1. in warmer weather the virus is less transmissable, restrictions will reduce in warmer weather.

1. there will be vaccines at the latest next year and they will be improved over time.

1. Rapid tests will mean you can be tested before doing anything risky so those who test negative can happily go to their mass event knowing its safe.

Eventually this will be no more than flu - and if people continue to wash hands and wear masks flu will no longer be as much as a problem as it is now. New Zealnad didnt get a flu season this year.

Maybe we'll all stop being spoilt children throwing toys out of the pram and GTFU and we can get to that stage a lot sooner.

I would like to see more research into what separates the symptomatic from the asymptomatic, what is it about someone that makes them immune to harm from the virus even though they are carrying it?

@YellowishZebra, don't be silly of course social distancing won't be here forever. There was no vaccine for the Spanish Flu during that pandemic and that ran through its cycle and declined, even in places that took no lockdown measures, and life got back to normal. The same has been true of pandemics throughout history. Herd immunity always comes eventually and the infectious agent settles into an equilibrium with its host. Life then goes on as before with all it's normal human interactions.

Social distancing is a choice made for now, a temporary measure to help reach this equilibrium without too severe loss of life. We are in charge of this, we can vote the politicians out if they take measures we don't agree with, and I'm pretty sure that going into an election with a policy of keeping families and friends separated for ever will not be a vote winner.

Even without a vaccine, we will make a choice, sooner rather than later, that the risk to our wellbeing of social distancing outweighs the benefits, then it will end.