WHO peer reviewed study. IFR of 0.05% for under 70s. It is like flu

[hamstersarse]

www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

Conclusion
"The inferred infection fatality rates
tended to be much lower than estimates made earlier in the pandemic."

Can we get a grip yet?

@notevenat20

That's a very good point. The figures only include deaths up to 28 days. More people go on to die from covid after 28 days, so overall the 45,000 is a significant underestimate in various ways.

This is not right. The ONS estimate is just under 50,000 which is more than 45,000 but not hugely more.

Significant for the 5,000 people who died, don't you think?

The point is that the figures are an over rather than an underestimate.

I can't comment on the stats but our ICU is virtually full with covid patients, 3 admissions yesterday, 2 intubations as soon as we came on. We've also now extended into a neighbouring ward to accomodate these patients. Things feel very much like march.

St helens and Knowsley NHS Trust, Hakton and St Helens NHS Trust and Liverpool Hospitals NHS Trust are almost full in terms of normal ICU provision. All three are already into contingency planning. Whiston Hospital (st helens and knowsley) has set up 4 dedicated covid wards for less serious patients.

I dont know what other hospitals are struggling but earlier this week it was stated that Manchester hospitals were already over 30% in icu capacity and im pretty sure parts of the NE are in a similar position. And whats concerning is the rate of increase in hospitalisation.

There is a very real problem developing which this white paper does not cover.

That's also why you can't say "well that can't be the IFR because there would be more deaths in the UK". We had many infections in the elderly in march and April so this would have led to higher deaths

One sensible interpretation for IFR for a country would be, if everyone in the country were infected, what percentage would die.

We were told that another local icu was struggling with staffing last week. Temporarily couldn't accept admissions. Yet on local facebook pages people are still saying it's a hoax and exaggerated. The mind boggles....

7% of hospital staff in Liverpool are currently off sick / isolating / off with child care problems

This is a bit of an issue.

Well - what happened in Wuhan and Italy? The difference between corona and flu is the transmissibility.

Even if the fatality rate is low for younger people, the transmissibility means that many more people get it, which means already stressed hospitals (which struggle with normal winter pressures) have additional load and staff isolating. This impacts care for everyone.

Btw - this is not even going into the point of over 75s and vulnerable people also having a right to attend medical appointments or receive care without high risk of catching corona.

Corona measures including isolation and lockdown do have downsides too - but the time course of these is longer and it is possible to mitigate these over a longer period. I suspect the countries that take quick, decisive, holistic action will do better economically in the long run.

@isitorisntit

Sorry to say, I'm 7 months and 1 day in... I can't smell or taste.
Oh, how awful. I can't imagine how that must feel. Even though it has been so long I really hope hope that your senses come back.

"One sensible interpretation for IFR for a country would be, if everyone in the country were infected, what percentage would die."

Yes, that is what an accurate IFR will reflect if it has been age and population adjusted.

Ignoring the over 70's is a very odd/ selective way of looking at it given that the biggest risk factor is age and the IFR increases dramatically with age. It's like saying yesterday was a lovely sunny day if you just ignore the fact that it pissed down with rain all afternoon!

An overall IFR doesn't tell you much anyway, for people under 20 years old the IFR is practically zero, but for a 71 year old it's much higher than the overall figure.

Rather than focus on overall IFR, it's more useful to look at the age-mortality curve. Variation in overall IFR is largely due to population age distribution and who gets infected. So for example countries with a population of lower average age than others should have a lower overall IFR.

The IFR that is relevant to the UK and similar countries, will be completely different to one for countries whose population have a much younger average age.

As example for the UK, the large serological study done recently in the UK gave an IFR figure of 0.9% excluding care homes. (The figures are adjusted to allow for those who did not produce antibodies or whose antibodies have faded.)
mobile.twitter.com/DevanSinha/status/1293830021199679488

For an age based breakdown of likely IFR, see the figures here for an example:
mobile.twitter.com/GidMK/status/1300644364117356545

Of course it's not just an outcome of you will either die or you will be fine, a minority will become seriously ill but recover and some may experience longer term illness, even from relatively mild or moderate cases. How many and how long term we don't yet know but it's a reason to remain cautious.

As others have said it's not just about the deaths but the pressure placed on healthcare by people who get ill enough to go to hospital. Average age of ICU patients is around 60, in other words half the patients are over 60 but half the patients are under 60.

I could have just interpreted it wrong and correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think that react study does adjust for how many don't produce antibodies vs T Cells as we don't have that into yet do we? When I read it it said it was adjusted for accuracy of test (false negatives and positives?) and was averaged across genders etc but didn't make a prediction on how many they estimate have had covid but never produced antibodies in the first place. You could have antibodies but get a false negative and I thought that's what was being adjusted for in that study. I could be totally wrong but that was my interpretation.

Lies, damned lies and statistics!