WHO peer reviewed study. IFR of 0.05% for under 70s. It is like flu

[hamstersarse]

www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

Conclusion
"The inferred infection fatality rates
tended to be much lower than estimates made earlier in the pandemic."

Can we get a grip yet?

@notevenat20

This is the risk with just taking whatever is on the web. Nature is a leading journal and there you get

The IFR was close to zero for people between the ages of 15 and 44, increasing to 3.1% for 65–74-year-olds and to 11.6% for anyone older

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02483-2

Notice that the reference the OP gave is outlandish in a number of ways. For example it claims that over 500 million had already been infected at the time of writing. I would just ignore it.

Standard response

This is not a deadly virus

The vulnerable group were always vulnerable. To all the other endemic disease we have. Nothing has changed

But it has England's IFR at 0.27 for the under 70s and 1.16 for all ages, with 20% of deaths occurring in the under 70s.

Which part of that are we supposed to find reassuring?

No I’m fairly sure those are stats from China. Will try to link the study.

In England we’re currently hospitalising 650 covid patients a day. Since it takes on average a week from infection to admittance into hospital, that would be 13000 or so infections, so 5% of cases. When you consider that a substantial figure of new infections is among the under 30s who rarely require hospital treatment, that makes the 9% figure very plausible.

I can’t believe the callousness of some of the replies. The sense of smell contributes a lot to enjoying food and life.

The comment people were replying to said it was the “cruellest symptom” of a virus. You don’t think that’s a tad melodramatic? You don’t think the maybe things that cause death are perhaps a little worse?

This is not a deadly virus

Look, I'm also worried about the impact of restrictions and how sustainable they are, but this is a bonkers thing to say. 43,000 people have died. You can't have any sort of sensible discussion about ways forward by just claiming that this isn't a deadly virus anymore than you can by claiming that black is white.

@notevenat20

This is the risk with just taking whatever is on the web. Nature is a leading journal and there you get

The IFR was close to zero for people between the ages of 15 and 44, increasing to 3.1% for 65–74-year-olds and to 11.6% for anyone older

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02483-2

Notice that the reference the OP gave is outlandish in a number of ways. For example it claims that over 500 million had already been infected at the time of writing. I would just ignore it.

time.com/5896734/10-percent-world-infected-covid-19-who/

Tbf I read this the other day. WHO estimates 10% of world have had virus which is over 700 million people

And...about 50,000 people have died in the UK so far of covid. An overall IFR of 1% implies 5 million infections so far which is plausible. If you are going to claim 0.1% IFR you have to believe that 50 million people in the UK have already been infected. The total population is only 66 million. But even you try to believe this, then how can we still see case numbers going up if almost every has already been infected?

As I say, these claims of really low IFRs are best ignored.

Boring, bore off op

@notevenat20

This is the risk with just taking whatever is on the web. Nature is a leading journal and there you get

The IFR was close to zero for people between the ages of 15 and 44, increasing to 3.1% for 65–74-year-olds and to 11.6% for anyone older

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02483-2

Notice that the reference the OP gave is outlandish in a number of ways. For example it claims that over 500 million had already been infected at the time of writing. I would just ignore it.

The nature article (not study) references studies that have assumed you've only survived Covid if you test positively for certain antibodies.

Virologists have discovered this isn't true. One that I know has said many staff tested positive on PCR tests when they had active infections, then tested negative in subsequent antibody tests.

It’s all bollocks anyway. My dear 88 year old DGM is currently in a hospital waiting for an urgent operation for a burst gall bladder. She may not survive the operation and yet neither of her two children are allowed in to see her. They have spoken to her over the phone (at £1 per minute I might add) and she has heartbreakingly been trying to tell them which ward she’s on so they can visit. It’s pure evil and makes no sense to me. Here we are all going through these endless restrictions to protect our elderly and vulnerable, however once again that’s totally the opposite of what’s actually happening. Tonight for certain, there’s at least one elderly and vulnerable lady out there facing an operation she might not survive completely alone. Her children denied any chance to see their mum for what might be the last chance they have, but hey, at least she might not get covid!! I’m so angry and so totally over the whole thing.

Thank you @LadyWithLapdog .. yes it's really not something you'd want to lose.

The point of my post was I don't think it's right to let it rip through the population, as the OP seems to imply.

Tbf I read this the other day. WHO estimates 10% of world have had virus which is over 700 million people

The official current number is 38 million but maybe it's in fact much higher. The rest of OPs link is still obviously rubbish.

Hospitals are already starting to be overwhelmed- what do you suggest we do about that?

This!

I suggest anyone saying “we’ve just got to get on with it” go and volunteer in hospitals because the staff there are already at breaking point. I expect they would soon be calling for a lockdown.

@Malteserdiet

That is just terrible. I am so sorry.

If someone said that an illness might make you completely blind or deaf would you scoff so much?

@notevenat20

Tbf I read this the other day. WHO estimates 10% of world have had virus which is over 700 million people

The official current number is 38 million but maybe it's in fact much higher. The rest of OPs link is still obviously rubbish.

Yes but we know the official number is magnitudes smaller than the actual amount of cases

@Frazzled13 - one of the cruellest, not THE cruellest.

Far too much money involved to give up now.

@swg1 not comparable. And this is most likely temporary.

I'm not saying it doesn't suck. But I don't think it's the "cruellest" and I don't think that in balance it justifies the death of thousands with other diseases who can't access healthcare. And the utter destroying of our economy which which fuck up the lives of millions for years to come. No. I do t think that at all.

@LadyWithLapdog

I can’t believe the callousness of some of the replies. The sense of smell contributes a lot to enjoying food and life.

So does having a job. Getting married and celebrating with friends. Studying at uni properly. Socialising. The arts. Theatre. Live music

@whereisthejoy so if ONE of the cruellest, which other of the cruelest is it on par with?

@swg1

If someone said that an illness might make you completely blind or deaf would you scoff so much?

Not comparable. I lost my sense of smell on a car crash. Counted my luck I can see and hear and I'm not registered disabled.

OP you are postings things people don't want to know, for some reason, so even though your source is perfectly credible it's getting dismissed as bollox and "boring".
Its all very odd.

Four in 10 people in intensive care are in their 40s and 50s.
They might live OP but who wants to got through being on a ventilator, having months of recovery (maybe never fully recovered).
There is also so much we don’t know about the long term effects of Covid.

@swg1 exactly!

I'm posting as someone who lost their job in June FYI. And my toddler has had 6-7 months with pretty much just me and DH.

So no, I don't want the economy and country to crash (does anyone?) but you don't want to let it rip through.

I really don't understand why people feel the need to be so unkind on here. But I guess if you're happy for it to rip through and kill off the old and vulnerable you're not a very kind person anyway.