WHO peer reviewed study. IFR of 0.05% for under 70s. It is like flu

[hamstersarse]

www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

Conclusion
"The inferred infection fatality rates
tended to be much lower than estimates made earlier in the pandemic."

Can we get a grip yet?

@Ecosse

It is accepted for example that the flu is more deadly for under 30s than COVID.

Perhaps everyone over 30 should stop paying tax? Seeing as they're expendable.

@Ecosse

It is certainly true that many people who would otherwise have died from flu this year have instead unfortunately died from COVID, particularly in care homes (where the average resident will only live 2 years).

I suspect a lot of flu deaths have also been put down as COVID on the death certificate due to the very similar symptoms.

Rubbish! Lots of care home residents have years in them. Having care needs (which happens at any age) does not = being at death's door.

But how could they all be people who 'would have died of flu anyway' - excess deaths were far in excess of (2 to 3 times) average annual flu deaths?

@Mischance

"It is like flu" - no it is not; that is the whole point.

If could be like man flu though. That's fucking awful or so it seems...

@SheepandCow

The average stay in a care home is 2 years- that is a fact.

@Hardbackwriter

I’m not saying everyone who died after w positive COVID test was at death’s door.

But given for one thing that the average care home resident will only live for 2 years and half of deaths have occurred in care homes, I suspect there will be many fewer deaths from flu and dementia etc over the next few years.

@Nellodee

Sorry - it has us as 0.27 for under 70s, I was reading from the overall column. 1 in 400 dying for the working age group is high, though.

0.27 is pretty high given this includes young people who basically have zero risk. Once you hit 45 the risk ratchets up quickly. It’s definitely best to look at narrower age bands.

Yes, but to put it bluntly a lot of people who would have died from flu this winter have already died from COVID.

The number who die from flu every year just isn’t that large. For 2017 to 2019 it was 458, 1,598, 1,223. You may be thinking of pneumonia which can be over 10,000 but that is still nowhere near 50,000. Also, according to your logic almost no one would have to die from pneumonia this winter which extremely unlikely.

www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/influenzaandcovid19deathdata

Maybe the fatality rate is lower...but that doesn't mean getting it is as mild as the flu.

What do we know about the hospitalisation rate, because that might be a little important too...

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-its-life-or-death-in-warringtons-covid-wards-as-hospital-deals-with-surge-in-patients-12104233

Dr Murthy says every infection, every case, brings more pressure on the hospital.

"Infections are really high, people still ending up in hospital," he says.

"It's not just a simple cold. It's much worse than that.

"People are presenting earlier and slightly milder but you still wouldn't want to end up in hospital, you wouldn't want to end up on a CPAP mask, you wouldn't want to end up on a ventilator. God forbid.

The risk is not just about age at all, the key issue is underlying health conditions. A healthy 75 year old is at much less risk than a 50 year old with diabetes and heart disease.

Even for someone over 70 with health conditions though, it is far from the death sentence some would like to portray. As what happened to Donald Trump shows.

www.southwalesargus.co.uk/news/18788894.dr-david-hepburn-coronavirus-situation-newport/

This is Dr David Hepburn, an ICU doctor in Gwent. Their department was part of a documentary series pre-covid so you can see him in action. Excellent doctor, level headed, expert in his field and compassionate. Not prone to hyperbole or hysteria.

At the start of the first wave he was interviewed on TV and said that ICU there was full and that the patients were all under 50. Some very fit and many with no pre existing health problems. In this article he says that they have got covid patients on the ward again and that it’s surprising that they are not as old as you might expect. He says that it can effect anyone severely.

The higher death rate in the elderly makes sense but this is not just ‘the flu’. Remember that many deaths will have occurred in care homes and at home, not just in hospital.

There is a natural, normal and understandable human reaction to something scary and uncontrollable that creates loss and it’s called ‘denial’. It’s a process. Anger is also a natural reaction. We need to move through denial and anger towards acceptance.

It’s here, it’s shit and things will be shit for some time to come but we need to do what is necessary to limit just how shit it could get by all pulling together and making some sacrifices to our freedom and lifestyle whilst making the best of it and looking after ourselves and each other as best we can.

It’s got to be a balance between limiting the damage of covid and limiting the damage of lockdown. If we all stick to the guidelines then the lockdowns won’t need to be as severe and the consequences of that will be less severe.

The issue is not with the CFR. It's a new virus that nobody has any immunity to and there isn't a vaccine to protect those most likely to get sick enough to need hospitalisation. And the long term effects of CV aren't known, either.

This is not a deadly virus

It was fairly deadly for the people that have died.

I don’t know the answer, I just find it hard to get on board with angry people on the internet that think they have some insider knowledge because they read something on the internet. I can’t help but shake the feeling that posters like OP might not be the experts they presume.

There were 50,000 excess deaths in winter 2017 @notevenat20. Flu was a large part of that due to an ineffective vaccine.

@Ecosse

The risk is not just about age at all, the key issue is underlying health conditions. A healthy 75 year old is at much less risk than a 50 year old with diabetes and heart disease.

Even for someone over 70 with health conditions though, it is far from the death sentence some would like to portray. As what happened to Donald Trump shows.

Trump was given a very expensive medication that isn't available for most of us. Aside from the cost, it's still in trial stage and therefore not yet in mass production.

He also had a guaranteed hospital bed, which most of us won't get - because they're filling up!

There's a huge number of diabetics in this country. Even more if you count all those not yet diagnosed. Millions. Many are essential workers. Doctors, nurses, other HCP, social care staff, teachers and other school staff.

Try running the economy without them.

If you have health anxiety you might not want to read the article below.

Let’s not forget the consequences of needing intubation:

www.npr.org/2020/04/20/839138100/life-after-intubation-people-face-physical-cognitive-issues?t=1602713185193

[quote Ecosse]@SheepandCow

The average stay in a care home is 2 years- that is a fact.

@Hardbackwriter

I’m not saying everyone who died after w positive COVID test was at death’s door.

But given for one thing that the average care home resident will only live for 2 years and half of deaths have occurred in care homes, I suspect there will be many fewer deaths from flu and dementia etc over the next few years.[/quote]
The average stay is not the same as life expectancy.

Some of them, particularly the young ones, might have only gone in temporarily to give their parents or whoever their regular carers are some respite.

People do know that young disabled people live in care homes? It's not just elderly people.

We've know this for months now. Right at the beginning when we knew literally nothing about the virus it was vastly overestimated, or estimated based on doing nothing to reduced it. Either way the figures given then compared to now seems excessive.

None of that changes the facts we do know now. In the NW hospitals are in danger of being over run, people are dying, others are in ICU, on ventilators, Oxygen. This means that people who need treatment for other things are having to wait longer.

It doesn't matter that the figures were wrong then, we're still up shit creek regardless. So yeah let's stop over reacting to this because it's hard for you.

50000 deaths in 2017 were all the winter excess deaths.

There's a huge number of diabetics in this country. Even more if you count all those not yet diagnosed. Millions. Many are essential workers. Doctors, nurses, other HCP, social care staff, teachers and other school staff.

Try running the economy without them.

Well said SheepandCow!

Flu wasn't a large part of that.

Through the USISS mandatory scheme, a total of 3,454 ICU/HDU admissions of
confirmed influenza were reported across the UK from week 40 2017 to week 15 2018,
including 372 deaths, based on combined data from England, Scotland and Northern
Ireland. In England, the total number of influenza confirmed admissions to ICU/HDU
was 3,175 (rate of 0.22 per 100, 000 population) and 320 deaths during the same
period...

I should add, I cut and paste that from someone complaining - with references- in the BMJ about the misreporting of the figures. I'm not taking credit for it.

Two years is the average stay ending in death @SheepandCow.

www.pssru.ac.uk/pub/3211.pdf

I feel sorry for the younger generation. I’m surprised there hasn’t been an uprising and riots tbh.

I think if they try and do another mass lockdown- there will be. I actually thunk Boris has got it right.

The irony in the posts of those calling for national lockdown at the posters not in favour of it. The younger generations are getting shafted as it is.

Only a few days ago, the WHO said:

Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s technical lead on the virus, told Monday’s briefing that it was estimated that 0.6% of people who contract Covid-19 die from the disease.

“That may not sound like a lot,” she acknowledged, while stressing that it was “a lot higher than [for] influenza”.

At the start of the pandemic, upwards of 6%-13% of people infected in different parts of the developed world were dying hideously, but measures taken to reduce spread and better understanding of treatments and newer drugs have helped reduce those numbers.

Assessing the Age Specificity of Infection Fatality Rates for COVID-19: Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis, and Public Policy Implications

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6.full.pdf

While the NYC data indicate an IFR of about 1%,
seroprevalence estimates from other locations have yielded a wide array of IFR estimates, ranging from about 0·6% in Geneva to levels exceeding 2% in northern Italy.
.....
We find that differences in the age structure of the population and the age-specific prevalence of COVID-19 explain about 90% of the geographical variation in population IFR.
......
These results indicate that COVID-19 is hazardous not only for the elderly but also for middle-aged adults,
for whom
the infection fatality rate is two orders of magnitude greater than the annualized risk of a fatal automobile accident
and
far more dangerous than seasonal influenza.