Two week circuit breaker - who's in favour?

[zafferana]

Keir Starmer is in favour - so are you?

If they did it over the next two weeks I actually wouldn't mind that much, as it's half term.

@PolarBearr

NRatched

The death rate is definitely increasing nationwide

ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-7-day?tab=chart&time=2020-05-16..latest&country=~GBR

Just a few more weeks at this rate of growth and the UK will be back to those March/April daily death rates you speak of.

The question is, will it keep increasing to that point, or will it level off beforehand.

Given that 90% of us are still susceptible because we haven't had it yet, and they're not shielding the Extremely Clinically Vulnerable it's expected to continue to double beyond April's levels if we let it.

[quote Waxonwaxoff0]@MJMG2015 how am I supposed to work if school is closed? We can't all work from home.[/quote]
Key worker child needed will have school
places & others would be furloughed.

School staff - bonus paid for those who work & a larger bonus for those who work remotely in school.

@HumanFemale1

The plot has been lost. "The definition of insanity is repeating the same thing over and over again and expecting different results"

We're not expecting different results! The lockdown worked. The numbers came right down.

@northernmonkeys100

No. It’s a waste of time.

How can something that saves lives be 'a waste of time'?

@BoardingSchoolMater

Our School (day pupils at 18 house school/16 boarding) have a plan for pretty much every option. For this they would do 'Teams' (as they did last time) with the ones not physically in class. They'd be 'at home' in their 'house'. Year group per floor and set areas in communal areas.

For all I eyeroll about them in general, with
Covid they have been brilliant.

@Judashascomeintosomemoney

Yes, if it would actually work. But it won’t. Madrid had one of the strictest lockdowns in Europe previously. Once they went back to even semi normality the infection rate is rocketing. So what’s the point?

It's about how low you get the numbers and how you open up. Madrid did what we did, opened up too much, too soon.

Fiddling about with ONS stats (not a statistician), and looking at values since the NHS started to record deaths attributed to Covid, it's interesting to note that there have been 11,000 fewer deaths recorded against flu/pneumonia compared with the five year average, to week 39. Of those deaths attributed to Covid, 39,373 people were over 75 . Six were aged 0-14, which might be similar to juvenile death mortality rates from flu - which has always been a killer.

What I'd like to see measured and broadcast is all those people who have not received care for heart attack, stroke, cancer, suicide ... how does the mortality rate for these (and other) conditions compare with the five year average?

@MeltingIceCaps

I don't really get what it would achieve? When we had the first lockdown, experts all said that all it would do is reset the pandemic, if we end the lockdown and go back to normal life, the exponential increase would just restart. And lo and behold, they were right.

There were some good articles about how coming out of the lockdown with mask-wearing, social distancing and good Test and Tracing would probably work because it would keep the R0 down. But seems like the government and/or the public failed on that.

So what's the point of another lockdown now then? It would just do the same thing, wouldn't it? Reset the rise, only for it to restart again in a few weeks time.

It's like a pressure cooker, the steam needs to be let out & tightened up. This was explained in the beginning, but people seem to have put their fingers in their ears when that but was mentioned!

It will save lives, 'flatten the curve', & give them (another) opportunity to sort out the complete fuck up they've made of testing, tracking & tracing.

They need to incentivise the morally corrupt who currently leave fake (or no) contact details.

A big issue in the UK seems to be a large number of people still don't understand the virus, how exponential growth works, and the risks of the NHS being overwhelmed,bad well as the risk to other services.

This thread is full of 'what's the point' type comments. You can only ask that if you don't understand the risks properly.

I'm tired of pretending this is an interesting discussion topic with equal but different viewpoints. If you don't think the virus is rising dangerously fast in the majority of the country, you are wrong.

Selfishly, no, because DC have 1 week of at half term and I have 2. I'm looking forward to a relaxing week off

Seriously though, yes - absolutely. And I would happily work and welcome in the vulnerable children with open arms. Knowing what they face at home, it pains me to let some of them go home at the end of each day. 2 weeks in school would be better for many, many children.

@Ecosse

Absolutely not. All it would do is push the can down the road by a few weeks, destroying businesses and livelihoods in the process.

The government have failed to get a test and trace system working in 6 months, now on earth could they do it in 2 weeks?

It is beyond me however why shielding has not been reintroduced on a voluntary and funded basis. This would be far more effective in preventing hospitals being overwhelmed.

It has been explained over & over why that would not work. Bloody hell - even Boris understands that wouldn't work!

@Varjakpaw

Yes and I will happily continue to work in school to support vulnerable and key worker children.

Thank you ⭐️🌷

@PracticingPerson

A big issue in the UK seems to be a large number of people still don't understand the virus, how exponential growth works, and the risks of the NHS being overwhelmed,bad well as the risk to other services.

This thread is full of 'what's the point' type comments. You can only ask that if you don't understand the risks properly.

I'm tired of pretending this is an interesting discussion topic with equal but different viewpoints. If you don't think the virus is rising dangerously fast in the majority of the country, you are wrong.

I still keep trying to explain.

But yeah. We need to stop giving the time of day to the lazy, negative, fatalistic covid-denying, science denying, disingenuous fact free bullshit. It's making it worse for all of us.

No chance.

SAGE have suggested that a 14 day lockdown would push transmission rates back by "at least 28 days". It's hardly a game changer is it? So on that basis, how many more lockdowns are we going to have to endure this winter/spring? There is no guarantee that a vaccine will eradicate the virus so presumably we could be in this cycle every winter, playing cat and mouse with a virus that is mild/asymptomatic for the vast vast majority of people.

Imagine the carnage left behind from all these lockdowns in the long-term. The economy would be destroyed, children's education severely compromised... I also think something too often overlooked is the amount of quality time people are being asked to sacrifice in these lockdowns. None of us live forever and many people view time in lockdown as somewhat wasted time with very little quality of life. Surely there comes a point where trying to give a relatively few number of 80+ year old a couple of extra years of life isn't worth tens of millions of non-vulnerable people sacrificing so much time?

It's happening in Northern Ireland and we have been advised by SAGE to do this too. The numbers in the UK are looking dreadful - how can anyone think we can just carry on as we are? The new restrictions we have now will do very little to help.

Schools to close and tight new hospitality rules https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-54533643

SAGE have suggested that a 14 day lockdown would push transmission rates back by "at least 28 days". It's hardly a game changer is it?

This is a prime example of someone not understanding the objective.

Pushing it back 28 days is good and would save large numbers of lives because fewer people in hospital over depths of winter is good. The numbers of beds in winter is always a problem.

Look at these two groups of numbers and see if you can work out which is bigger. When it comes to hospitalisations, big numbers in the middle of winter are bad and little numbers are good. If I sound frustrated, I am.

A: 200, 400, 800, 1600, 3200, 6400, 12800, 25600, 51200, 102400 = 204,600

B: 200, 400, 400, 400, 800, 1600, 3200, 6400, 12800, 25600 = 51,800

This is an example with made up numbers but please try to understand why pushing it back four weeks is very valuable.

Look at the way the numbers work. You need to stop the bigger numbers from happening in ten weeks' time.

What SAGE is trying to tell the government and us is we are on a dangerous trajectory.

I really wish there was an election looming. I would vote for an anti lockdown party.

Pushing it back 28 days is good and would save large numbers of lives because fewer people in hospital over depths of winter is good
I agree

Also as I see it, this isn't one of several equal choices to reduce numbers, it seems to be the only option right now.

It is a shit option but in the absence of anything else

@JamSarnie

I really wish there was an election looming. I would vote for an anti lockdown party.

Then you’d be a fool

@PracticingPerson
Of course I understand the objective, my point is that a two week lockdown won't nip this in the bud or stop deaths climbing very high over a very long winter and spring period. Any lockdown might over the relative short term bring down potential deaths, but if we can't eradicate the virus then the people who would have caught it in this wave and have been spared through lockdown, may well get it in the next when hospitals are again overwhelmed and death rates are spiralling.

Ultimately unless we commit to a continuous round of lockdowns, potentially forever more as the virus mutates, then we are simply delaying the inevitable. I don't think the economy and the general population are able to sustain living like this for a long period of time, so this little fortnight lockdown seems pretty futile.

@JamSarnie

I really wish there was an election looming. I would vote for an anti lockdown party.

You could set one up with Piers Corbyn

In your opinion I would be a fool but then I think MN seem to have quite a high proportion of people screaming for lockdown (as well as bleaching food, wanting masks outside, wanting to lock people up).

Most people I know in RL from a variety of backgrounds, jobs and incomes do not favour lockdown at all.

Not in favour.

[quote Bumpitybumper]@PracticingPerson
Of course I understand the objective, my point is that a two week lockdown won't nip this in the bud or stop deaths climbing very high over a very long winter and spring period. Any lockdown might over the relative short term bring down potential deaths, but if we can't eradicate the virus then the people who would have caught it in this wave and have been spared through lockdown, may well get it in the next when hospitals are again overwhelmed and death rates are spiralling.

Ultimately unless we commit to a continuous round of lockdowns, potentially forever more as the virus mutates, then we are simply delaying the inevitable. I don't think the economy and the general population are able to sustain living like this for a long period of time, so this little fortnight lockdown seems pretty futile.[/quote]
Well, yes it will nip it in the bud and stop it climbing for now which is all we've fucking well got.

The economy and general population are not going to be able to cope with what's coming now.

It is doubling every week. This is basic maths.

Doing something or doing nothing are our options. The people who want to do nothing are wrong-headed. The numbers are bad.

Christmas will be fucking carnage the way we are headed.

My question would be and then what ?