Two week circuit breaker - who's in favour?

[zafferana]

Keir Starmer is in favour - so are you?

If they did it over the next two weeks I actually wouldn't mind that much, as it's half term.

Yes I’m in favour. The other measures won’t work

@NannyMcphee39

Yes I’m in favour. The other measures won’t work

So how do you think this would work, then?

(Beyond making even more people unemployed).

@Autumngoldleaf

Secondary schools should switch to rota on line someday and in some days so they are thinned out.

All parents should support school with getting windows open and dc in warm clothes.
They should all be encouraged to wear clean clothes whether it's school uniform or not.

So how would this work for children at boarding schools 200 miles from home?

SAGE is in favour.

Boris Johnson's going to have to be in favour now that Keir Starmer has pointed out that he would follow the advice of the governments science advisors if it was up to him.

(Otherwise the inevitable thousands of deaths will be his fault, and we can't be much more than a month away from 1000 deaths a day again.)

I live in a covid free area.

The restrictions were lifted only after no cases for two weeks, plus two weeks in lock down - the only cases that were appearing were linked to the hospital. Staff members or patients etc or their families. It’s obvious a breeding ground.

So even if community cases reduce the risk is still there in the hospitals.

Plus, unless you are going to restrict all fights in and out of the UK and enforce quarentine for two weeks, with fines or prison sentences, then nothing with change.

People spread the virus, it can’t spread in its own. Unless everyone in in bored, it’s never going away.

@RonaLisa

Both the SAGE minutes and Keir Starmer described the purpose of it I believe. And Chris Whitty alluded to it in the last briefing.

@IronLawOfGeometricProgression

There’s absolutely no evidence that there will be 1000 deaths a day. Spain is weeks ahead of us in terms of the virus and they are seeing fewer than 200 deaths a day with the vast majority in one area.

We would be seeing even fewer deaths here if we reintroduced shielding on a voluntary and funded basis.

@IronLawOfGeometricProgression

Johnson came up with rules based on "scientific advice", which Cummings chose not to follow.

I don't give a toss about Cummings, as it happens, as I didn't stick to the rules either, though I wouldn't have invented shit excuses about my eyesight in order to justify breaking stupid and ill conceived rules.

I wouldn't trust anyone on this, because - as I keep saying - it's a virus. Who knows how to "control" it ? They can't, because viruses can't be controlled.

As for Starmer: I despair. I thought he was a reasonable prospect, until today.

@RonaLisa
Of course the government should provide support for those who cannot WFH. I just didn’t write the obvious.

It should be obvious, Greenlynx. But it's not obvious to the government. I'm into the 8th month of no income and no support.

[quote Ecosse]@IronLawOfGeometricProgression

There’s absolutely no evidence that there will be 1000 deaths a day. Spain is weeks ahead of us in terms of the virus and they are seeing fewer than 200 deaths a day with the vast majority in one area.

We would be seeing even fewer deaths here if we reintroduced shielding on a voluntary and funded basis.[/quote]
With respect @Ecosse that's what people said in February when the deaths were in single figures. The 1000 deaths a day we had in April were infected in late February and March. It feels very much to me like we're there again.

Today's numbers don't need to be doubled much to get there. And it is doubling.

They can't, because viruses can't be controlled

Of course they can. How many measles, polio, smallpox, rabies, yellow fever outbreaks have you had to worry about recently?

I'm into the 8th month of no income and no support
I have heard a lot of people say this on the news and I am interested to know why some people have had no support at all.

If I believed it would actually be for 2 weeks (last one was meant to be a few weeks..), and might help (ie. government actually sort T&T during the fortnight, rather than doing fuck all) then I would be for it.

I believe neither of the above things, at all unfortunately. I wish I did.

Half my friends think there should be another lockdown and half think that their will eventually be many more deaths caused by the serious economic downturn.

Yes, reaction to measures/covid seems to be just as divisive as Brexit, with people almost 50/50 seemingly!

I have just been looking at the numbers, and actually expected them to be much worse than they are, based on reactions on here. There appears to be no 'curve' to 'flatten' right now? Assuming the main results when you search 'uk covid' are correct, you know what I mean, the (google?) graph? Very very low death numbers, the headling about being highest number since june is a lie seemingly as july beats the most recent one in a few places. Deaths seem to be remaining low, with odd spikes in random places but they are up and down daily. I actually did expect smething approaching March/Aprils numbers, but nowhere near. Which tracks with my sister saying her hospital..is still quite dead, despite seemingly all hospitals in the country being overflowing And we are in a local lockdown area with apparently bad numbers (though not as bad as surrounding areas granted)

Yes I am aware the numbers could go up quickly. They could also go down, its not necessarily all bad news like many seem to think.

In short, fuck knows. But the reaction seems a bit odd for the numbers I am seeing, assuming those are accurate anyway.

NRatched

The death rate is definitely increasing nationwide

ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-7-day?tab=chart&time=2020-05-16..latest&country=~GBR

Just a few more weeks at this rate of growth and the UK will be back to those March/April daily death rates you speak of.

The question is, will it keep increasing to that point, or will it level off beforehand.

Ah yes, thats a lot clearer, thanks. WIll save that page I think. Does show rises, luckily still very low though..again a hell of a lot lower than I thought they would be. And extremely low given numbers of infections too.

It wouldn't just be for 2 weeks though, despite what they say. So no way, I'm not up for that.

I'll find the nearest cliff now and jump off it I think (plenty around here). I've got zero access to medical care, not from the hospital and now not from my useless GP surgery, who won't let me in. A bloody lockdown would stop me finding one that will see me.

The plot has been lost. "The definition of insanity is repeating the same thing over and over again and expecting different results"

We’re barely halfway through October and already we’re contemplating shutting down the economy. How on Earth are people meant to survive to the spring?

Looking at the death curve (god, fuck you 2020) it does seem to be climbing much more slowly than march? Or is that overly optimistic?

No. It’s a waste of time.

@Bouncycastle12

Looking at the death curve (god, fuck you 2020) it does seem to be climbing much more slowly than march? Or is that overly optimistic?

Due to the restrictions it's "only" doubling about every nine days at the moment. In March it was every seven to eight days then it sped up to every three days in the week or so before Lockdown.

But it's a snowball. It gathers momentum if the restrictions aren't enough to slow its toll.

The doubling from 1 - yesterday's 143 doesn't look too bad unless you recognise exponential curves doing what exponential curves do.

But doubling 143 gives us 286 deaths a day in 9 days unless the restrictions help.

Doubling 286 gives us 572 deaths a day in about 18 days unless the restrictions help.

And doubling 572 gives us 1144 deaths a day in 27 days unless the restrictions help.

I'm not clear if yesterday's is just the 28 day cut off deaths, or up to 60 days, or all of them. The average time between test and death is 29 days. 60 days is pretty standard.

Government policy doesn't seem to be to prevent these deaths. Just spread them out.

Most of the people who will die in the next 60 days are catching it now. They just don't know yet.

"Effective policies are essential to forestall the possibility of worse outcomes, and the necessary measures to reduce contagion and protect lives are an important investment in long-term human and economic health.

Because the economic fallout is acute in specific sectors, policymakers will need to implement substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial market measures to support affected households and businesses domestically. And internationally, strong multilateral cooperation is essential to overcome the effects of the pandemic," IMF

www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/World-Economic-Outlook-April-2020-The-Great-Lockdown-49306

@Bouncycastle12

We’re barely halfway through October and already we’re contemplating shutting down the economy. How on Earth are people meant to survive to the spring?

Because it's a snowball, earlier action has a bigger impact than waiting. To replicate the braking effect of a short lockdown now we would need a longer lockdown later.

A functional test and trace system could avoid the need for further lockdowns altogether.

But not now that we've allowed the infection level to build this high.

And not the current system which despite being one of the most expensive in the world, doesn't even meet minimum requirements.