Who will be in tier three? New announcement next week?

[rosesandchips]

With profuse apologies for the daily fail link:

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8819333/Heat-map-reveals-200-towns-cities-high-Covid-19-infection-rates.html

Does anyone know if this is at all accurate? According to this my area (and much of the country) is in the 'red' and soon to go into some kind of lockdown...

Everything credible that I've read seems to be 100 per 100,000 for tier 2. Which does not place everywhere into that zone, and would at least give the majority of suburban areas a chance that they will dip in and out of harsher measures (though my area up from 30 to 80 this week, it has fluctuated quite a lot week by week). I have not seen anything indicating where tier 3 will kick in but perhaps will be > 200 per 200,000 as there are fairly few areas at that.

It needs to be proportionate, even Nottingham at 600 per 100,000 is only 0.6% of the population.

Case rate of 50 bringing in no household mixing would be far too extreme I think. That's 0.05% or 1 in 2,000 people.

Tier 2 is not mixing with friends at all isnt it? Like having a friend over in your garden. I cant see them actually doing that everywhere.

After the scientisit/health guy spoke a few weeks ago I was surprised it wasnt strict lockdown everywhere... ilI just dont see them doing it other in the cities badly affected m

@CoffeeNights I am in a similar position. Over 50 in the area I live but all surrounding areas are under 50 including the nearest city. We are a very rural area. I have been told on the grapevine that the reason the cases have gone up in our area is because there has been an outbreak at the local boarding school. If that is the case, it would be crazy to introduce additional restrictions.

I read 100 for tier 2 and 250 for tier 3 in a more reputable publication. We have 22/100k here and can't believe anyone would suggest further restrictions to areas like mine (semi rural) when 3/4 cases are linked to 1 factory

I'm in Derbyshire although I'm about an equal distance in between Derby and Nottingham. I expect tier 2 for Derby and tier 3 for Nottingham. All of my family and friends are in Nottingham so even if I escape tier 3 I won't be able to see anyone anyway!

We have gone up from 10 per 100,000 to 90 in just over 4 weeks .Yet they seen fit to have travelling fair amd just allowed extra week .as apparently things in place.You drive past and way more than groups of 6

In tier 3 but only 59 so doesnt seem right or fair

@GabsAlot

In tier 3 but only 59 so doesnt seem right or fair

I'd be very surprised because that would be most of the country. I know that's what the daily fail is suggesting but I wouldn't worry about that too much.

There will be an algorithm for this. It will take into account cases, rate of change and things such as hospital beds and more crucially Icu capacity of local health facilities, numbers of aged, composition of employment (wfh privilege), perceived compliance.

The BBC were saying >300 for tier 3 this morning which will be interesting here in the NE as Newcastle is above that now (uni figures are astounding) but Northumberland where I am is around 100.

What will happen if Northumberland is T2 and Newcastle is T3? Will people just hope across the county border for a pint?!

@LatteLover12

The BBC were saying >300 for tier 3 this morning which will be interesting here in the NE as Newcastle is above that now (uni figures are astounding) but Northumberland where I am is around 100.

What will happen if Northumberland is T2 and Newcastle is T3? Will people just hope across the county border for a pint?!

i posted up thread that your mayor thinks you WON't be in tier 3. If the vast majority of cases are confirmed to be uni related then it would follow that they would not necessarily put you in tier 3 just because of that.

FYI, it'll be announced in Parliament in the daytime before the evening's announcement to the public. So they need to decide by ? Monday morning at the latest.

Anyone know if you can still move house if in a local lockdown area?

@Feefifo9 I moved house during the national lockdown so would have thought you could during the local one.

yes frazzled it does seem extreme i really shouldnt take notice of the tabloids

I am predicting that we'll be in tier 3 (urban NW England). We decided to go out for lunch today as it's DC2's birthday in two weeks and I think it's quite likely that we won't able to eat out by that time.

How granular is this going to go?

I live in a small town with minimal amount of cases, the next door city is a uni city with lots of cases. Even the local authority area has many more cases. Small towns and therefore small businesses will be utterly fucked if they don’t get the granularity right.

We are listed in Tier 2. Having my parents round for dinner tomorrow in case we can’t mix households from next week - I know it is against the spirit, but sod it. Also DS supposed to be celebrating his birthday next weekend by going to a restaurant with 4 friends - he has gone to the same place today with one friend, just in case - if there are no restrictions here he can go again next week!

[quote Waxonwaxoff0]@Feefifo9 I moved house during the national lockdown so would have thought you could during the local one.[/quote]
Thanks!

I think the tier 3 over 50/100,000 is rubbish - the average in England last week was 74. BBC were saying tier 2 over 100/100,000 and tier 3 higher than that, possibly 200.

Mind you, I looked up my area, and we have jumped from 28 to 74 per 100K since the previous week. There is a large student population in the neighbouring town, which is within our district....

I hope that's wrong as we'd be in a tier 3.

We’ve got nearly 300 cases per 100,000 here so we’re screwed 😰

22 per 100,000 here with a population of 155,000

@WiseUpJanetWeiss He seems to find it funny.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8827027/Matt-Hancock-makes-tasteless-Covid-test-joke-Commons-bar-joined-MPs-flouting-10pm-curfew.html

Some early local lockdown places had rates of just ~30 per 100k at the time double standards