Who will get the vaccine

[IrishMamaMia]

I've been following on the news today about the revelation that not quite as many as us as expected will be getting the vaccine. The Evening Standard ran this interesting editorial on it :
www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/coronaviris-vaccine-political-bombshell-george-osborne-a4564456.html
Now don't get me wrong, I don't begrudge care workers and the vulnerable the vaccine. However, I'm mid-thirties with children and work in a public facing role.. How long do they really expect the average adult to live with these restrictions if Covid is still rampant with only a percentage of the population immunised?!

Do you get a flu jab?

If you are vulnerable you will probably get it after a few months. If not then you are unlikely to get it if you are emid-thirties. Your children won't get it either.

People who are low risk won't live with restrictions.

I pay for one annually but it was cancelled this year due to lack of supply. I will try again later in the season. I've always been cautious about this but I know someone in their early thirties who died of the flu.
This issue has also got me thinking.. If the government, NHS and pharmacies are having major logistical issues getting the flu vaccine out this year, how on earth will they manage to roll out the covid vaccine?!
Obviously I hope the vaccine even if rolled out to a small percentage of the population is successful in suppressing the disease, I just feel a bit uneasy about the issues raised and what that will mean for the average Joe soap.

However once the elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated we shouldn't need to have these restrictions. It will be like the flu jab, the vulnerable are protected and the rest left to get on with it as they are unlikely to be affected.

@eurochick I hope you're right.
I also wonder what role long Covid will play in this? The working age population, 30-60's, are statistically most at risk to suffer long Covid. This always seems to be brought up as an issue during information about covid. I think it's strange not to make provision for this age group in future vaccination plans.

Long covid aside, isn't this what people have been wanting?
The over 50's and vulnerable to shield and the rest of us to get in with it?
It's just the "shielding" is via vaccine

Many viruses have long term effects though. Glandular fever is linked to MS (mine was definitely caused by the Epstein Barr virus). That’s just one example.

Everyone will get it eventually, there is just a priority list. Those with higher risk get it first, those that have lower risk get it last. It makes sense.

I thought the most vulnerable would get it first and it would then be rolled out to the working population. Apparently the decisions haven't been made fully yet according to Matt Hancock. I don't have much faith in the government to sort it out. I'll keep a close eye on what's being planned in other countries.

@icedancerlenny

Many viruses have long term effects though. Glandular fever is linked to MS (mine was definitely caused by the Epstein Barr virus). That’s just one example.

But if some 30 million people are going to be left unvaccinated and so totally vulnerable to Covid, we could potentially end up with millions of people with long term damage.

I thought a vaccine only worked if a majority had it? So how will it work at all in that case??

@IrishMamaMia

I pay for one annually but it was cancelled this year due to lack of supply. I will try again later in the season. I've always been cautious about this but I know someone in their early thirties who died of the flu. This issue has also got me thinking.. If the government, NHS and pharmacies are having major logistical issues getting the flu vaccine out this year, how on earth will they manage to roll out the covid vaccine?! Obviously I hope the vaccine even if rolled out to a small percentage of the population is successful in suppressing the disease, I just feel a bit uneasy about the issues raised and what that will mean for the average Joe soap.

The government have said they will use the army to roll it out.

@IrishMamaMia

I thought the most vulnerable would get it first and it would then be rolled out to the working population. Apparently the decisions haven't been made fully yet according to Matt Hancock. I don't have much faith in the government to sort it out. I'll keep a close eye on what's being planned in other countries.

There is a priority list published on the Government website.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/priority-groups-for-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-advice-from-the-jcvi-25-september-2020/jcvi-updated-interim-advice-on-priority-groups-for-covid-19-vaccination

It could change (this is already the second version) but this is their plan for now.

I am waiting for the racist anti Vaxxers in my local fb group to start kicking off once they realise the BAME community will be offered the vaccine before them !

The government has ordered 60M doses of each of the vaccines it's bought. That's assuming a double dose so about half the population. But like the flu vaccine private companies will buy doses as well so I think most people who want one will be able to get one.

@Dumpypumpy

I am waiting for the racist anti Vaxxers in my local fb group to start kicking off once they realise the BAME community will be offered the vaccine before them !

That has changed now. They are no longer priority.

@icedancerlenny I knew about post viral fatigue with glandular fever but didn't realise about MS link :(
I'm not too worried about long Covid as it is so out of my control, I just think if there are large numbers of working people and parents with it, we'll have a whole other public health crisis.
@Char2015 I did think this but the George Osborne article makes me think the process could be a lot longer than I thought.

[quote IrishMamaMia]@eurochick I hope you're right.
I also wonder what role long Covid will play in this? The working age population, 30-60's, are statistically most at risk to suffer long Covid. This always seems to be brought up as an issue during information about covid. I think it's strange not to make provision for this age group in future vaccination plans.[/quote]
You're right OP. Long Covid is a risk.

It's right that the most vulnerable should be prioritised first, but they should then plan for younger people.

They're also massively fucking over the 45-50 age group if it's over 50s only. The age risk (of death or hospitalisation) starts at 45, as noted by SAGE and evidenced on data from the world.

That's what's alluded to in the article I linked @meloraspalm and that is a bit worrying. More on a societal level and where are we going with this. I'm not so concerned about my personal situation as I work in a school. I'm sure I'll have Covid sooner rather than later.

How many 45-50 year olds do we have in the UK?

@sheepandcow I do notice a lot of victims in the 45-50 age group when I have read about fatalities in the press.
@Char2015 it seems like the higher BAME risk has been quietly dropped!

OP, the logistical issue with this year’s flu vaccine is the unprecedented demand for it! There was plenty for the regular patients, but we’ve been swamped by younger fitter people wanting it too.
The Covid vaccine has already been manufactured in sufficient quantity for the whole population- it’s just waiting to complete safety/efficacy trials.
If it gets the go ahead, it makes sense to give it first to the very elderly and frail. Because they are most at risk from Covid, and also have les years of life expectancy to spend damaged if the vaccine turns out to have an unexpected adverse side effect.
Care home workers and NHS staff also need to be in the early cohort for vaccine, as they are also at high risk of exposure themselves and onward transmission to vulnerable patients.
Healthy young adults are a lower priority as they are unlikely to die from Covid, so the risk/benefit balance is less convincing. But they are at risk of chronic disability from long covid, so it probably will be worth immunising them once the more urgent groups are done, and once we have had the chance to detect any adverse reactions.

It's all speculative until an actual vaccine has been approved, along with the expected efficacy of that particular vaccine for different groups and the risks of taking that particular vaccine for different groups (age / vulnerabilities / already had covid). Some vaccine types may need more than one dose, others may be annual one-offs. The first vaccine type that's approved may only be suitable for a narrower remit and future vaccines suitable for all, even one for children in a few years. Some vaccines may be available privately. Some people won't want to have a vaccine. I wouldn't pay it all too much attention until there's a vaccine getting near approval; ultimately decisions will be made based on the best expected outcome for the population as a whole (with priority lists), and the details will change whether you fret about them or not.

Thanks @Babdoc and @MRex for the reassuring comments. As things have been chaotic with the government response so far it's easy to automatically to speculate negatively at the moment. No need to worry yet without a confirmed vaccine.