In the long run, will more people die as a result of lockdown than of covid?

[JKRowlingIsMyQueen]

Saw this comment in another thread and the last bit especially shocked me:

"Hospitals have been told to ignore anyone who needed them unless its covid related since then. GPs arent seeing anyone unless absolutely necessary. I know people having assessments over the phone that are impossible, Drs should assess the whole patient not just a couple of symptoms they cant even see. Its medicine 101.
People are dying at home from lack of care, Doctors have predicted tens of thousands will die in the next year because their life saving treatment was cancelled, they werent diagnosed in time, they were too scared to go to hosital because eveyone was screaming at them not to 'overwhelm the NHS with their problem' while A & E units stood empty.
I know nurses who have sat on their backsides for months, worrying about thier patients who arent allowed back for treatments and checkups.
I know people who have relatives who have illnesses which are now terminal due to lack of care.
There were 10,000 excess deaths due to neglect in their own homes in people suffering from dementia in April, due to lack of carers going in and making sure they were eating, drinking and taking their meds, not dying from lonliness and confusion. How many do you think there will have been by now?"

Between this, the suicide rates rising due to lockdown, elderly in care homes deteriorating due to isolation/lack of social contact and the missed cancers due to delayed cancer check ups, I cannot help but to come to the conclusion that the cure is showing to be worse than the disease. Am I alone in thinking this?

Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.
Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed

From The Great Barrington Declaration signed by over 3000 epidemiologists other respected scientists and Drs world wide.

Yes

The number of cases/ hospital admissions are thr issue not lockdown. Going yo be a hard winter
.
Daily Brief: 14,542 new cases as medics fear tsunami of hospital cancellations

f7td5.app.goo.gl/WgV9cx

Sent via @updayUK

The comparison isn't between those who have died of Covid versus those who have died as a result of lockdown. It is between

(those who have died of Covid + those who have died as a result of lockdown)

compared to

(those who would have died of Covid without lockdown + those who would have died of other things because the hospitals were overwhelmed treating Covid patients)

I'm not expressing a view as to which is the worse scenario. Just pointing out that, if Covid had been allowed to run freely, not only would there have been a lot more Covid deaths, there would have been more other deaths as well, not just in the short term either. Plus, a larger number of people suffering Long Covid/Post Covid - which, as yet, we are still not able to quantify how many it affects and for how long.

I am not sure if it easy to quantify.
In the initial lockdown, I suspect there were fewer non-covid deaths due to people staying at home, ie fewer car crashes, fewer pub brawls, knife crime, etc
On the other hand, I read that domestic abuse had gone up, and child abuse. If austerity kills (we heard this pre-covid), then the economic crash may also have devastating effects.
Non-Covid health matters have not resumed, or not resumed to normal capacity. Whittey says the NHS IS Open, but unfortunately the GPs are not seeing people (or in our case, not actually answering the telephone, to book that telephone appointment), so it is presumed that based on previous years, that many cancer patients will have been missed. (treatment will eventually start, but may be too late).
I certainly read that mammograms had not yet resumed, so there will be a backlog there.

I certainly read that mammograms had not yet resumed, so there will be a backlog there.

Funny that. My mother had hers not long ago, and I've recently had an invitation for a cervical smear. She also had an elective cardiac procedure in June.

I know a couple of people who have been diagnosed with cancer and started treatment as promptly as they would have at any other time. Maybe it's different in different areas, I don't know.

I've had no difficulty getting through to the GP - mind you, our practice does telephone triage by GP's as a matter of course. Yet I know of people who can't get through to their own GP in normal times. So maybe it's not Covid that's the problem, but the inconsistency and underfunding of the NHS?

In the initial lockdown, I suspect there were fewer non-covid deaths due to people staying at home, ie fewer car crashes, fewer pub brawls, knife crime, etc

Yes, during the initial 'full' lockdown while excess deaths soared overall, they actually fell in the youngest adult population group, suggesting that the fall in road traffic accidents etc saved some lives.

I don't know. I have clients who died of COVID and quite a few others who were treated for urgent health conditions during lockdown. I know two others whose surgeries were delayed due to COVID, but they were for less life-threatening issues.

I've worked supporting families for 15 years. Never before have I spoke to so many people contemplating suicide. And I can't even go visit them, I can only speak to them on the phone and encourage them to share what they've shared with me with their GP to get (maybe) some proper help.

From personally experience if it’s essentially what you would like to see your Gp for initially they may be a bit reluctant. However I doubt they will refuse if you be direct and polite and just state you would much prefer to be seen in person. I saw my Gp in person around 6 weeks ago.

Just to have some facts. Suicides have not gone up. In the 0-19 category they have actually gone done a bit in Q1+Q2 compared YoY.

It irks me when people make up data to make their point.

I saw a comment somewhere how the restrictions are contributing to privatization of healthcare - a result of years of underfunding and cuts topped up by Covid.

@Nikki078

I saw a comment somewhere how the restrictions are contributing to privatization of healthcare - a result of years of underfunding and cuts topped up by Covid.

@Nikki078 it wouldn’t surprise me. I know a few folk who had never used private healthcare before who turned to it out of desperation recently. My friend really needed postnatal physio but it’s still not happening on the NHS where we are so she eventually paid for it. Another friend is paying for a counsellor for her 10 year old after all her CAHMS appointments were cancelled.

And not of the same importance but I’m about to sign up for a private gym so I can swim because the council pools near me haven’t reopened. I can’t really afford it but to be honest I’m desperate.

Be interesting to hear from more mental health professionals and also social workers on this.

Well my monthly blood test at the gp surgery has gone ahead as usual.
So presumably the path lab is still open for business at the hospital
I had my hospital appointment initially ‘demoted’ to a phone call but then reinstated to a face to face albeit at an alternative location
And the further treatment is going ahead as normal

So it’s not all doom and gloom

I think it’s important to remember that even if things are up and running in the NHS where you are, they aren’t everywhere. And that means the NHS is not in fact ‘open,’ as we’ve been told.

Furthermore, it certainly wasn’t open when many, many people needed it. I don’t know if anyone else heard the Woman’s Hour items on breast screening and miscarriage over the past few months but they were very upsetting.

@Susannahmoody did you see this article re: mental health?

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/sep/21/left-no-one-uk-mental-health-deteriorated-covid

I didn't, agent copper, thanks for the link.

I have a social work friend who has recently started doing home visits again after the restriction period and she said what she saw wasn't good. Vulnerable kids and adults who don't have access to social care can quickly be in dire straights.

My mum cares for a 93 year old man. The other morning she found him on the floor, blocking the door with where he was lying. She had no idea how long he had been there - and he was conscious but unable to explain what happened.

It took 15 minutes discussion on the phone to 999 - due to all the precautionary Covid questions. Did he have a temperature, had he been exposed to Covid, did my mum have any symptoms? Then she was told there would be an hour's wait for an ambulance.

Poor bugger lying on the floor but at least he's not a Covid death... Ridiculous.

I personally think yes, in the UK, the long-term cost won't be worth it.

Globally, absolutely certainly more will die due to lockdown impacts. The World Health Organisation has now come out against lockdowns (seems a bit of a u-turn but there you are): www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/coronavirus-who-backflips-on-virus-stance-by-condemning-lockdowns/news-story/f2188f2aebff1b7b291b297731c3da74

A doubling of world poverty by next year. We already lose over five million children globally every year, mostly directly due to impacts of poverty, so I dread to see what that toll will wind up being over the next few years.

In general, I'm sad that people weren't so inclined to make economic sacrifices to save lives before this year. It could have been done. But unfortunately most people only care about what is being shouted into their faces by the media, hence the covid obsession while millions of children die elsewhere and out of sight.

I'm still reeling from a picture doing the rounds on social media, from my home country. 70 jobs were advertised at a factory, paying approximately £140 a month. The queue was ten of thousands of young people.

Lockdown and the economic consequences of it are a total global disaster.

@Derbygerbil

I don’t know why people conflate: a) the NHS cancelling or postponing treatment to manage Covid infection with b) Lockdown restrictions.

What am I missing because it makes no sense at all?!... But it keeps on getting repeated, again and again and again. It’s exasperating!

It is strange and has been around for a while.

Personally I think we may look back and determine lockdown was not the best option..but that is an impossible call to make right now, and the vitriol is so sad.

We are trading off trying to stop people dying from a virus that can kill or have long term health consequences verses future mental health damage, deaths from delays in treatment and austerity deaths.Devil and the deep blue sea if you ask me.

Everyone is struggling in their own way too, be it job, health, relationships. People are scared and lashing out as a result. We can and must all help each other. No matter how shit you feel, say good morning/afternoon to someone, offer to help someone even if it feels like no one is helping you. I honestly think we all have to do our bit, however we are able, to try and get through this.

Friend works in an eye clinic - backlog is now two years long and thousands of people will lose their sight.

My mum needs an urgent endoscopy - next appointment is December 2021.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8824905/amp/NHS-faces-lawsuits-cancer-patients-scans-tests-operations-cancelled-lockdown.html

Yes.