In the long run, will more people die as a result of lockdown than of covid?

[JKRowlingIsMyQueen]

Saw this comment in another thread and the last bit especially shocked me:

"Hospitals have been told to ignore anyone who needed them unless its covid related since then. GPs arent seeing anyone unless absolutely necessary. I know people having assessments over the phone that are impossible, Drs should assess the whole patient not just a couple of symptoms they cant even see. Its medicine 101.
People are dying at home from lack of care, Doctors have predicted tens of thousands will die in the next year because their life saving treatment was cancelled, they werent diagnosed in time, they were too scared to go to hosital because eveyone was screaming at them not to 'overwhelm the NHS with their problem' while A & E units stood empty.
I know nurses who have sat on their backsides for months, worrying about thier patients who arent allowed back for treatments and checkups.
I know people who have relatives who have illnesses which are now terminal due to lack of care.
There were 10,000 excess deaths due to neglect in their own homes in people suffering from dementia in April, due to lack of carers going in and making sure they were eating, drinking and taking their meds, not dying from lonliness and confusion. How many do you think there will have been by now?"

Between this, the suicide rates rising due to lockdown, elderly in care homes deteriorating due to isolation/lack of social contact and the missed cancers due to delayed cancer check ups, I cannot help but to come to the conclusion that the cure is showing to be worse than the disease. Am I alone in thinking this?

But that’s not true.

My MIL has just had cancer surgery after going to see her GP four weeks ago. My own mother and father have been admitted to hospital as emergencies and received treatment. My DH has had is usual consultant appointment but over the phone which was more convenient. His specialist nurse has still been available via email which is how they usual communicate with each other. Ive has a telephone appointment with my youngest’s dietitian which was much easier than the normal situation of me trying to talk to her while looking after a roaming toddler. My Dad has seen a GP in person - just a pile! I managed to get treatment for mastisis prescribed over the phone which was great as I knew exactly what it was and was feeling crappy and didn’t want to drag myself with the toddler along to the GPs where she wouldn’t have feed which would have made the situation worse.

This is just the treatment my family has had from the NHS in the last few months. The NHS has not stopped treating people.

There was a report out saying that for every three people who've died from Covid, two have died from lock down.

Not quite correct and also lacking a bit of context as the report said for every 3 covid deaths 2 deaths could occur over the long term (next several years) due to missed /late diagnosis of terminal illness etc. It did not say that these deaths had already occurred. The report also said that without lockdown there would have been many, many more covid deaths than there has been, so one thing that the report was definitely not saying is that lockdown = a higher number of deaths than no lockdown.

Yes. I don’t know anyone seriously affected by covid let alone dead.

But I know of at least one suicide, several breakdowns, two cancer diagnosis delays and untold misery.

I would riot in the street if I could.

Fucking mad

How could anyone know if suicide rates have increased this year when the data from 2019 has just been released?

It might well be that the rates are increased, and I can see why people might presume that they are but it's not, as I understand it, a matter of record and I think that there are ethical considerations about stating is as a fact, as in the op.

Bloodywhitecat I'm so sorry

My dads been in hospital once for about 10 days
He had nurses come out every day to do his bandages and try to get his insulin correct and have been for the past 2 months
He’s had treatment for his diabetes only 2 weeks ago at a hospital

His eye appointments resumed 2 months ago
So from my point of view it’s all pretty normal

@milkysmum

I'm a mental health nurse. The impact of lock downs and restrictions has been horrific already. I don't know how this can carry on.

Thank you for all that you do I know of 2 suicides one last week 31

I don't know of anyone who has not been receiving treatments for other illnesses. My dad and my best friend have both had operations, MIL is about to have her cataracts done and my aunt has been consistently receiving her cancer treatment. Even I'm having my wisdom teeth issues seen to by my dentist.

DH has had 25 plus treatments for cancer.
DS had a follow up consult for detached retina.
DD and myself have had face to face with gp.
Nothing has been different to normal for us.

These are the figures. They do not look like people dying in their droves due to the effects of lockdown. They look strangely like a raging pandemic which was swiftly brought under control due to drastic action.

One member of my family has just completed his course of radiotherapy for cancer diagnosed immediately prior to lockdown.

Another has had extensive hospital investigations for a complicated but non-lethal condition which came to light as a result of their GP’s in depth telephone consultations for an apparently minor complaint.

Another has had a very swift and thorough consultation at A&E for worrying symptoms which turned out to be harmless.

Another has bought their own blood pressure monitor and used a very nifty system to log the results with her GP for their regular medication checkups.

I accept that some people are having poor or no treatment at the moment but it’s not my experience at all.

Where is this 'data' from?

ONS. Here’s an article about it: www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/05/covid-19-causing-10000-dementia-deaths-beyond-infections-research-says

It’s so hard to tell. Some of the people who are dying “because of lockdown” and missed treatments would also do so if the NHS was overwhelmed. It’s not a binary issue.

[quote BikeTyson]Where is this 'data' from?

ONS. Here’s an article about it: www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/05/covid-19-causing-10000-dementia-deaths-beyond-infections-research-says[/quote]
No national lockdown wouldn’t have meant no restrictions in care homes. This a really sad consequence of Covid itself and our rightful attempts to protect the most vulnerable not lockdown itself. It’s all so hard on so many levels and in so many different ways.

I agree with you too. I've lost someone close to me already because of this. Someone way to young and previously healthy and he died through fucking NHS neglect.

Yes. I don’t know anyone seriously affected by covid let alone dead.
But I know of at least one suicide, several breakdowns, two cancer diagnosis delays and untold misery.

Whereas I don't know anyone who has committed suicide, had a breakdown or a cancer diagnosis delay as a result of lockdown, whereas I do know one fit cyclist/canoeist/potholer who died of covid and one 90+ year old who contracted it and survived.

The impact of missed cancer diagnoses will be very significant in the longer term, yes.

But it’s not Covid so it doesn’t matter, hey.

?!

@JKRowlingIsMyQueen

What you’re describing isn’t the impact of “lockdown”, it’s the impact of the NHS’s response to Covid. The two are completely different. If we didn’t lock down or take any measures, the NHS would be stopping more, not less services.

Yes.

I am glad to hear that some NHS activity appears to be normal. I have not heard a single story in my area of people not suffering problems and delays. I myself had to see a GP privately during lockdown and am only grateful that I was able to afford it. Likewise, my mother. Not only are there the knock on effects of delays but the economic harm will also have ramifications.

I don’t know why people conflate: a) the NHS cancelling or postponing treatment to manage Covid infection with b) Lockdown restrictions.

What am I missing because it makes no sense at all?!... But it keeps on getting repeated, again and again and again. It’s exasperating!

Some people talk about the wholesale locking down of society between March and June (rather than targeted protection of the elderly and vulnerable) as though it unarguably saved hundreds of thousands of lives.

This is not accepted as gospel.

Not half as exasperating as being told repeatedly by everyone you speak to that your partner's surgery should take place in the next 2-4 weeks but no-one can be certain due to the restraints of COVID. He has one chance of surviving this cancer and every day we wait the tumour is growing. He's been told he has 6 months without treatment. Six fucking months. Do you know how hard we have had to fight to get him seen during this bloody pandemic? He turned up at A&E, dayglo yellow and was turned away because of bloody COVID.

I agree and time will tell.. Yes for some people that hVe know many who have been badly effected it's horrible. However the vast majority of people don't even know someone who has had the virus let alone died from it.

@bloodywhitecat

Yes, your experience puts my exasperation into perspective... I think the problems are a) we let Covid get out of control back in March meaning more extreme action needed to be taken than would have been necessary, b) NHS wasn’t well enough resourced to manage it; c) there was an overreaction in some parts of the country that weren’t especially badly affected.

No of this changes the fact that lockdown restrictions didn’t cause the NHS to take the action they did though. If we hadn’t have locked down, it would almost certainly have been worse. Having said that, I don’t think we should lock down again.

@RepeatSwan

There were 10,000 excess deaths due to neglect in their own homes in people suffering from dementia in April, due to lack of carers going in and making sure they were eating, drinking and taking their meds, not dying from lonliness and confusion. Where is this 'data' from?

It's just a quick Googl m not required.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/05/covid-19-causing-10000-dementia-deaths-beyond-infections-research-says