The Great Barrington Declaration

[Ibake]

I watched this today and then read the subsequent articles. I found it very powerful, not least because it talks very specifically about how we protect the old and clinically vulnerable. They call it Focused Protection and argue that it is what we should replace lockdowns with so that we don't destroy our children's education, our healthcare systems and the economy whilst trying to mitigate the global effect of Covid.

World renowned epidemiologists and immunologists have put their name to it (attached pic)

It's 30 mins long but worth watching.
unherd.com/2020/10/covid-experts-there-is-another-way/?fbclid=IwAR0UZJSBkqMZwNxhZsgrFxQikRPpEj6IvxsaCO6r12RK5BCYeRz6gk0QyPQ

gbdeclaration.org
If you agree with the content you can also sign the declaration.

reaction.life/we-are-throwing-the-working-class-under-the-bus-an-interview-with-professor-martin-kulldorff/

On South Korea ...

The government has access to personal data on its citizens that is unthinkable for Western countries.

It can access individuals mobile phone records, bank transactions. It has permission to use all CCTV footage to track people. It can and will publish the exact geographic location of people diagnosed with Covid.

It's not a like for like comparison at all.

redbushtea

twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1314125847272587264?s=19

3 times more deaths from Covid than flu and pneumonia combined.

@TheKeatingFive

On South Korea ...

The government has access to personal data on its citizens that is unthinkable for Western countries.

It can access individuals mobile phone records, bank transactions. It has permission to use all CCTV footage to track people. It can and will publish the exact geographic location of people diagnosed with Covid.

It's not a like for like comparison at all.

Just like here then actually

This is the conservative strategy to cope with Brexit

The conservatives have a strategy to cope with Brexit?

There is a middle ground here of keeping the sensible measures in place i.e. 2m SD, but spending more resource on investigating breaches and fining (workplaces / ensuring proper quarantine) but stopping with the stupid stuff on not allowing families to meet indoors, or stopping students socialising when they aren't in touch with anyone at risk. People won't follow rules they feel they are unnecessarily harsh/ impossible.

And as for the death rates, you do realise that a Covid death is classed as a death where there has been a positive test within 28 days of death. It means there may well be people who just happened to have covid at some point, not necessarily that their death was caused by Covid. Case in point, someone in hospital with another life-threatening condition, they pick up Covid in hospital and die - what kills them? The Covid or the other condition? We don't know.

And as for the death rates, you do realise that a Covid death is classed as a death where there has been a positive test within 28 days of death.*

Funny enough, I do realise that. Just as I realise that there are people who die of covid more than 28 days after the test, so that overall, deaths from covid are likely to be an under- rather than an over-estimate .

(though this is common practice in other countries also)

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

This is the conservative strategy to cope with Brexit

The conservatives have a strategy to cope with Brexit?

lol

@herecomesthsun course they have a strategy! Take the money and run 🏃‍♀️

@Bupkis

...oh and a question for the Barrington fans. When ds is shielding, what is supposed to happen with his sister's? ...do they go to school? And his dad and I? Continue working or not? Because when we shielded before we had to do it as a family

No of course you don't all shield!

You put DS in the shed & deliver a survival box out to him once a week. Obvious thus applies from the newborn baby with a heart problem to the 92 yo great grandmother who up till now is still looking after her own home, doing her own garden, driving & shopping.

People don't seem to realise that 'the vulnerable' are not just living alone & 'waiting for God'.

They'd be amazed to see what 'with co morbidities' includes and that 'the vulnerable' Is anyone age 45+

the vulnerable' is anyone age 45+

Really? What evidence is there for that?

Best not to talk about sheds and caves.

You may give this government ideas. They could go full on City of Ember.

The age 45 Icomes from the calculation of how many hospital beds you can spare for covid patients and how many people would get ill at the same time

I did a rough sum and came up with age 50, but the scientists said 45... probably because of how long people stay in hospital

I did a rough sum and came up with age 50, but the scientists said 45... probably because of how long people stay in hospital*

I thought the real 'vulnerability' starts from age 60 - 70 onwards? I thought most healthy 50-60 year olds had a very low risk of becoming hospitalised with Covid?

This Nature paper says that COVID becomes very dangerous from the mid-fifties onwards:

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02483-2

Shielding everyone from the mid-fifties onwards, plus the people they live with, plus extremely clinically vulnerable younger people, means a high percentage of the population will need to be confined to their homes.

Rather difficult logistically apart from anything else.

I've just listened to Dr John Campbell's video on this.

I'd recommend it. His videos are always evidence based and he puts references underneath the video.

One of his criticisms of this declaration is that it is not evidence based, there are no references to back up their claims. Which is highly dodgy, especially from supposedly senior scientists.

They assert things as fact without providing evidence that their statements stand up to scrutiny.

He's invited the authors onto his channel to discuss it though, so hopefully they'll take up his invitation and we'll see if there's really any evidence behind what they're saying.

What references and evidence does sage or gov for curfews, locking up students?

It’s all scientists vs scientists and rushing guidance through. His view is no more valid than many others.

People aged around 50 to 60 do have have relatively low risk, but low risk multiplied by lots of people getting ill still leaves a lot of those people in hospital

So say around only 1% of 1 million people end up in hospital , thats 10,000 people.. around 10% of hospital beds

Only it's a higher hospitalisation rate for that age group, and probably a couple of million people. Yes they won't all get ill at once, but hospital stays are quite long , average 4 weeks ? and hospital admissions will be concentrated into quite a short time period

It’s the same old argument. Those most at risk and in hospital seem to be very overweight, mostly men. We really should be supporting people to look after their general health which is why the uk was allowed to do outdoor exercise even when other countries weren’t (we are the most overweight European country)

Why a population immunity strategy wouldn't work

by proper experts in the field, none of whom have signed themselves off as Dr Johnny Bananas

I have an alternative plan for those fed up with the vulnerable making life hard for the people who matter.

Let's inject all the non-vulnerable people with the virus. They will be fine as it's 'only like flu' and in a week they will be immune. Problem solved!

We could prioritise the non-mask wearers and also the Barrington bunch as we already have a handy list of those who signed.

Excellent plan @LastTrainEast!

If I were them I’d be taking it down about now. Removing the search button doesn’t seem to have helped much.

@Newgirls

What references and evidence does sage or gov for curfews, locking up students?

It’s all scientists vs scientists and rushing guidance through. His view is no more valid than many others.

Sage didn’t advise on the curfew. This has been said. The government made it up themselves

The view of the president of the Academy of Medical Sciences:
acmedsci.ac.uk/more/news/navigating-covid-19-through-the-volume-of-competing-voices

@LastTrainEast

I have an alternative plan for those fed up with the vulnerable making life hard for the people who matter.

Let's inject all the non-vulnerable people with the virus. They will be fine as it's 'only like flu' and in a week they will be immune. Problem solved!

We could prioritise the non-mask wearers and also the Barrington bunch as we already have a handy list of those who signed.

I think you're onto something there! I'll volunteer to hold the thick fuckers down while somebody else jabs. I mean, if herd immunity is real, and the virus is harmless, then there should be queues around the block of eager volunteers and their families! Job done.