The Great Barrington Declaration

[Ibake]

I watched this today and then read the subsequent articles. I found it very powerful, not least because it talks very specifically about how we protect the old and clinically vulnerable. They call it Focused Protection and argue that it is what we should replace lockdowns with so that we don't destroy our children's education, our healthcare systems and the economy whilst trying to mitigate the global effect of Covid.

World renowned epidemiologists and immunologists have put their name to it (attached pic)

It's 30 mins long but worth watching.
unherd.com/2020/10/covid-experts-there-is-another-way/?fbclid=IwAR0UZJSBkqMZwNxhZsgrFxQikRPpEj6IvxsaCO6r12RK5BCYeRz6gk0QyPQ

gbdeclaration.org
If you agree with the content you can also sign the declaration.

reaction.life/we-are-throwing-the-working-class-under-the-bus-an-interview-with-professor-martin-kulldorff/

@SarahMused

mrshoho We don‘t have a vaccine and maybe not for months or longer. Out of the many millions around the world that have had are very few cases of people catching covid more than once and there seem to be very specific circumstances in those cases. This is the best we have at the moment. Could be that those university students with covid are doing everyone a favour.

I'll say again this is a new virus. I suggest reading @Chathamhouserules link.

Downing Street have rejected it anyway.
I would not have signed anyway for reasons given on this thread.

@Newgirls

We can’t protect the vulnerable without a functioning economy. The uk is in massive debt. With over a million job losses and counting. I think people don’t understand how bad our economy is - we have more in poverty than ever before. It’s creating a new vulnerable. Sorry but we don’t have much choice now - we need to get those able out working. And I say this as someone who hates this dire gov. We’ve run out of options sorry.

You think the economy is bad now, well imagine the state of the country (the world) after 6 - 12 months of letting the virus spread for a non guaranteed herd immunity.

Why not choose the version where we will at least have a more functioning economy?

Because even if we reintroduce some sort of shielding we need to try and mitigate the spread of the virus through the rest of society as well, we could still otherwise end up with a scenario over the winter where society and the NHS are overwhelmed.

We need an intelligent balance where we protect the most vulnerable and also try to minimise spread over the depth of the winter, while trying to find creative ways for businesses to stay afloat and continue turning a profit.

I don't think however it should be Christmas party season in the usual way however.

Intelligent balance is the key isn’t it - how to define it is the issue!

Not saying let the virus run rampant - we have loads of measures in place.

To be honest I don’t think it should be the usual Christmas parties either @herecomesthsun. But I do think the non vulnerable should get back to some kind of normality. Limit gathering sizes (10 may work?), keep masks in public places. But scrap social distancing and allow all businesses to open as that’s what is so damaging to businesses and people’s mental health.

Newgirls has got it exactly right. How are we going to pay for this stuff if we are all stuck in our houses? Lockdown is a luxury that only those with money or the ability to wfh have. They outsource their risk of catching covid to the rest of society who still have to go out and try and make a living.

think the economy is bad now, well imagine the state of the country (the world) after 6 - 12 months of letting the virus spread for a non guaranteed herd immunity

Imagine the state of the economy after another 6-12 months of various lockdowns.... There will be no economy left!

Mass graves. Countries that let the virus just run without social distancing, masks etc have mass graves.

The vulnerable are too interconnected to be protected without spending vast sums of money (that we don't have) on separating them out - you'd need a separate medical system and as covid rates go higher and higher it would be more and more difficult and costly to keep that separate medical system covid-free.

It's absolutely insane that people are suggesting this as a real strategy.

Suppression is the only way as has been shown around the world multiple times over.

Imagine the state of the economy after another 6-12 months of various lockdowns....shock There will be no economy left!

Worst case scenario (no vaccine/treatment) then suppression to a level where we’re not swamping the NHS could take a LOT longer than that.

Suppression is the only way as has been shown around the world multiple times over.

Has it? All I've seen is disaster after disaster of trashed economies, a high price of human suffering and inevitable case rises as soon as restrictions are eased.

Ferguson’s worst case scenario of 500,000 deaths was based on ‘no measures at all’

And no one is suggesting that

And even if that were the case most people now accept that half a million fatalities won’t happen

If we were to pursue (or had done from the start) a policy of herd immunity it is likely there would more deaths but exactly how many we will never know unless we try it

Herd immunity is a risk - so is suppression while searching for a vaccine but if a vaccine doesn’t turn up by the new year we will either have to change tactic or there will mass poverty on a scale not seen since the 1930s and all of the hugely negative economic, health and social impacts that will accompany it.

@MaxNormal

Suppression is the only way as has been shown around the world multiple times over.

Has it? All I've seen is disaster after disaster of trashed economies, a high price of human suffering and inevitable case rises as soon as restrictions are eased.

Really? How about South Korea, Taiwan and the numerous other countries that have successfully delivered test-trace-and-isolate? It is possible to control this virus without repeat lockdowns.

The fact that people in English-speaking Western countries are ignoring the alternatives to lockdowns are pure arrogance and exceptionalism. We should be able to do the same as countries that have delivered contact tracing and the fact we can't is down to government incompetence.

Londonwriter I suspect we are more in agreement, the first part of my post was quoting someone else.

I'm not sure there is a brilliant understanding of the economy on here.
Do you know just how very little of the economy relies on PAYE tax ?
Many, many jobs are so poorly paid, workers pay no tax at all.
Government debt is not like household debt- it is a sign of a strong economy.

If a country can't borrow money it is generally because it is seen as a failed state with no ability to ever repay.
The government was able to bail the banks out in 2008.
They could pay everyone a basic minimum income tomorrow so no one would be in poverty.
It's a choice.

If we had a more competent government with proper social welfare then we might have a better chance against covid.
For all the people who love the Swedish approach that is one of their hidden strengths- no one fears or ignores self isolation or sickness absence for financial reasons in Sweden.

Suppression would mean closing all transport/flights/businesses which we just haven’t done nor can afford to. The uk gov should have stopped flights and done better testing in feb. This ‘leadership’ lost that window and now we can’t afford it.

Absolutely isk - the poverty in uk now is a national disgrace

@iskwobel

I'm not sure there is a brilliant understanding of the economy on here. Do you know just how very little of the economy relies on PAYE tax ? Many, many jobs are so poorly paid, workers pay no tax at all. Government debt is not like household debt- it is a sign of a strong economy. If a country can't borrow money it is generally because it is seen as a failed state with no ability to ever repay. The government was able to bail the banks out in 2008. They could pay everyone a basic minimum income tomorrow so no one would be in poverty. It's a choice.

If we had a more competent government with proper social welfare then we might have a better chance against covid.
For all the people who love the Swedish approach that is one of their hidden strengths- no one fears or ignores self isolation or sickness absence for financial reasons in Sweden.

This exactly.

If you the Covid19 virus is damaging the economy, just wait for Brexit to impact.

If we had a more competent government with proper social welfare then we might have a better chance against covid.*

But unfortunately we don't. And the current Government has increased national debt to the highest level in 60 years, exceeding the value of national income in 2020.

Government debt is not like household debt- it is a sign of a strong economy.

Sure.

Debt repayment options:

Repay through continued growth in the economy (ok, but will likely take forever, so fact remains we will be saddling younger generations at minimal risk from Covid with this debt - seems very unfair to me)

Cut government spending. Even after the Covid dust settles, I really don’t think there is much appetite for a return to austerity either after 10 years of it.

‘Inflate the debt away’ - essentially a tax on money & creditors. So we pay anyway.

South Korea has not shut down. They have not suspended transport in and out of the country.

There are measures - universal mask wearing, excellent test, trace and isolate, and occasional closures when there are outbreaks (e.g. in nightclubs). Their economy is faring far better than ours.

They have fewer than 500 deaths still (some of the 45k who died here were people like senior hospital consultants who will be very difficult to replace)

We still could adopt an approach more like Korea but because everyone's too precious to wear a mask or get their kids to wear masks in schools we're going to trash our economy and destroy many people's entire lives (not only those who die, but their family and friends).

So many people saying it's not possible. IT IS! There are many countries who have done it - look at Germany if you want somewhere closer to home. Doing so much better.

Re herd immunity

The idea seems to be that people catch a disease and then develop immunity to it in the community, and then the disease dies off and becomes less important.

However, if this were the general rule, we wouldn't need vaccinations. Vaccinations were developed, because herd immunity generally doesn't just develop like that on its own.

Before we had vaccinations, quarantine was the big development that helped reduce the impact of plague episodes.

"Just let everyone get it and hope for the best" is not a recipe for successful management of episodes of infectious diseases.

If you have a business, you need customers who are healthy enough to come and buy your stuff, maybe with enough confidence to go onto your premises.

So we need a well organised society that can protect your more vulnerable customers (as your consumers) and also that will allow your employees to get to work safely and where the hospitals, finance systems, emergency services and of course schools can open safely.

If we are ingenious, then we can balance opening up with safety,but I think mitigation measures are inevitably part of the equation, to balance social mixing and preserving the fabric of society.

I think we need to prioritise where we put our energy. Education is hugely important, we can balance safely distanced or online tutorials with on line lectures. If students need to quarantine, then can there not be a business case for getting food and other supplies to them in an effective way. Also people will want nice things and fun experiences at Christmas, even if it's not a normal Christmas, and there will be business opportunities in that. And so on.

As a vulnerable person, I am fine with effectively shielding for another 18 months or so, but I think there should be an element of choice in this because of people's different circumstances.

I also hope that we might get some roaring twenties action after this is over, as people make up for a difficult year or 2.

@MummyPop00 inflate the debt away is fortunately an excellent strategy as we have such historically low interest rates. It's a fabulous time for government to invest in infrastructure and for other investors to buy government bonds. People with mortgages are set to gain from negative interest rates and this will stimulate the housing market and building. Classic big government.
This is the conservative strategy to cope with Brexit and will work for covid recovery too. Ironically all the profit will go into the hands of a few, but we could use this money to build a fairer society and support business and individuals while suppressing the virus.
Guess we might not though.

www.wired.co.uk/article/great-barrington-declaration-herd-immunity-scientific-divide

Might be useful

I thought it was arrogant bollocks myself, and the sheer ridiculousness of naming it as they have really didn't help.