Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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What about children with someone ECV in their household BCF? Or who are in a support bubble with someone ECV (eg mum is providing support for grandma). It still wouldn’t be a huge % of the pupil population but it would be more than the children who are ECV in their own right.

I personally would have identified all the children in that group, match them with ECV teachers, ship them all out laptops where necessary and set up a separate home learning school system. The children who lose out in that scenario are the ones allocated to home learnings whose parents are working FT and can’t supervise but I think that’s literally an unsolvable problem - at least they’d have allocated live full time teachers.

@ancientgran

Small class sizes are proven to be beneficial - but they are not possible to achieve during ft schools Why aren't they? When I was at primary school in England in the 50s I was in a class of 48, it was normal where I lived. I can remember when it was decided that class sizes had to be reduced and they were. It took money, there was alot of building new schools and new classrooms, presumably they trained more teachers but I can't see why there should be some reason why it would be impossible if it was agreed that is what we should do. Obviously it couldn't happen overnight but if that is a target why couldn't it happen?

.... It would cost a lot of money and voters keep choosing tax cuts, or at least not choosing tax increases

We wouldn't have had 10 years of Tory govt, the last 5 with a majority, if voters actually cared

@BigChocFrenzy

I'm happy to listen to the experts as long as I don't necessarily have to agree with Profs Gupta, Viner and on occasion Heneghan.

I'm very happy to campaign for ECV, staff and children to have vulnerability taken into account. Though I would of course like families previously shielding to be in there also. There could be a proviso that the child's academic needs should be met.

Unfortunately, ECV people are not well placed to take part in political demonstrations.

So they are possible to achieve if people decide they are a priority.

@MsWarrensProfession

What about children with someone ECV in their household BCF? Or who are in a support bubble with someone ECV (eg mum is providing support for grandma). It still wouldn’t be a huge % of the pupil population but it would be more than the children who are ECV in their own right.

I personally would have identified all the children in that group, match them with ECV teachers, ship them all out laptops where necessary and set up a separate home learning school system. The children who lose out in that scenario are the ones allocated to home learnings whose parents are working FT and can’t supervise but I think that’s literally an unsolvable problem - at least they’d have allocated live full time teachers.

... In Germany, ECV staff & students, or those with an ECV household member, can stay home A doctor's certificate is required first to obtain permission Additional staff have been hired, as well as funding of online teaching, laptops etc

This costs money, which the govot and taxpayers here have chosen to accept
Judging by the grumblings about the cost of existing measures, including on MN, I don't know if the UK would accept this costs

The German system does not consider people who choose to bubble with someone in another household who has ECV
because that is choice, not necessity

• and some states have allowed up to 500 people to meet, so obviously it would be unworkable !

The lowest limit for gatherings in any state is 10, iirc.

I’d like to see an election with education as a priority. Unfortunately people were turned away by the last Labour runner and Brexit reared its head.

Blair did Education speech didn’t he? I remember that line

@Frazzled2207

Listening to Andy burnham’s weekly Covid conference and one very interesting statistic. Although the numbers in hospital WITH Covid are rising quickly the vast majority are in there For other reasons and diagnosed while there? So the high number of people in hospital with Covid is very misleading as they were not admitted as Covid patients

That's very interesting Frazzle. Every admission, for whatever cause, is routinely tested. With higher levels of community infection it makes sense that increased numbers of people who are being admitted for other things will test positive. Plus, nosocomial infection is always a risk particularly in the vulnerable. Hopefully, better testing is reducing hospital spread which was rife in the spring.

@Frazzled2207

Listening to Andy burnham’s weekly Covid conference and one very interesting statistic. Although the numbers in hospital WITH Covid are rising quickly the vast majority are in there For other reasons and diagnosed while there? So the high number of people in hospital with Covid is very misleading as they were not admitted as Covid patients

But couldn't this reflect the very high rate in Greater Manchester of Covid generally. Testing for Covid would be automatic on admission to hospital so they are most likely picking up asymptomatic cases or those without classic symptoms.

I’d like to see an election with education as a priority. I second that.

"Education, education, education" worked well for years
but then people chose "tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts"

and since then, Brexit has switched off rational thinking of anything else

Note: the tax take is likely to be significantly lower and the public expenditure on unemployment considerably higher with the double whammy of Brexit and Covid,
so realistically it will be a struggle even to maintain pre-Covid standards, let alone improve things

Anyway, planning to rebuild is fine, but doesn't help us to get through the next few months of this crisis

@Frazzled2207

Listening to Andy burnham’s weekly Covid conference and one very interesting statistic. Although the numbers in hospital WITH Covid are rising quickly the vast majority are in there For other reasons and diagnosed while there? So the high number of people in hospital with Covid is very misleading as they were not admitted as Covid patients

I find this interesting too. And the line in the death Excel sheet

This file contains information on the deaths of patients who have died in hospitals in England and have tested positive for COVID-19.

I had seen people say on here it’s dying with COVID not of it but this seems a glaring issue. How much of an issue is it in reality?

We can use excess deaths I know. But all
our data seems a bit rickety - cases / hospitalisation / deaths. I had thought the middle one more sound.

Has anyone any new statistical meat we can chew on.
About anything related to Covid !

@EducatingArti
Yes absolutely. I was just thinking that the numbers of people in hospital are alarming as you would imagine everyone to have been brought in as they have covid but in fact that isn't the case at all. Clearly it seems to be endemic in the population to a degree. But if these people aren't ill (from Covid at least) then in a way that is a good thing.

The other very important point that AB makes is that we are all going to be very resistant to any extra lockdown measures here because the ones which have been in place since 31st July clearly aren't working. I'm not sure what the answer is but there obviously needs to be some intelligent thinking here, not that there is much at all happening in the government right now.

"With" and "of" Covid has always been controversial

wrt deaths, imo the ONS is the gold standard, about 10 days in arrears
and they also show excess deaths at regular intervals

Currently ONS say > 57,000 deaths with Covid on the death cert
and iirc they posted that at least 90% would be caused either by Covid directly, or by Covid worsening an existing ailment to the degree of causing death

Uni of Leeds have reported 558 cases over the past week, so about 20% of cases. There's also Leeds Beckett, Leeds Trinity and Leeds Arts which aren't included in the figures, I think their students also live in the same areas predominantly.

coronavirus.leeds.ac.uk/statistics-and-support-available/

@MarshaBradyo
yes absolutely a similar tale is true with the death stats. I honestly didn't think it was a huge thing before. But if in GM hospitals 90% of people with covid are actually in hospital for something else, if that translates to deaths....then suddenly an awful lot less people are dying directly of this awful disease than we think.

ONS found a great leap in lockdown deaths among the elderly caused by conditions like dementia
this could have been put down to being caused by isolation and changes to routine
EXCEPT
that this increase stopped after the Covid deaths dropped to a low level, but while the restrictions on care homes were still inplace

Statistics in Devon are interesting. Plymouth has a higher population than Exeter, it has two universities (Plymouth Uni and Marjons) Exeter has one, both have an art college.

At the moment Plymouth has 30 cases per 100,000 and Exeter has 283 per 100,000 with most being said to be student related.

That seems such a big difference for two neighbouring cities and I wondered if anyone has any idea what is going on with the Devon statistics?

Nicola Sturgeon live now talking about new restrictions if anyone wants to watch.

We discussed before about the increase in cases for women aged 20-40. I've just seen some relevant info; 54.8% of people tested are female and 54.1% of cases are female: www.gov.uk/government/publications/demographic-data-for-coronavirus-testing-england-28-may-to-26-august/demographic-data-for-coronavirus-covid-19-testing-england-28-may-to-26-august. This suggests the disparity may be more to do with women being more likely to get a test, having very slightly lower positivity than men.

[quote Frazzled2207]@MarshaBradyo
yes absolutely a similar tale is true with the death stats. I honestly didn't think it was a huge thing before. But if in GM hospitals 90% of people with covid are actually in hospital for something else, if that translates to deaths....then suddenly an awful lot less people are dying directly of this awful disease than we think.[/quote]
I suppose, just because they come into hospital for another reason, it doesn't mean that their Covid symptoms might not get worse and be the thing that kills them.
eg - someone comes in with stroke or heart attack. They would normally have a percentage x of making a full recovery, but complications from Covid ( eg blood clotting) reduces the percentage chance of surviving dramatically and they die. They would still be dying of Covid (imo) rather than with it in such a case. I guess comorbidities are difficult to unpick though.

[quote Frazzled2207]@MarshaBradyo
yes absolutely a similar tale is true with the death stats. I honestly didn't think it was a huge thing before. But if in GM hospitals 90% of people with covid are actually in hospital for something else, if that translates to deaths....then suddenly an awful lot less people are dying directly of this awful disease than we think.[/quote]
...
ONS proved this issue was spurious in the 1st wave by comparing total deaths from all causes to the same period in previous years
there was an excess of ~ 65,000 for the 3 months of the 1st wave

This was distributed over all UK regions and tailed off before lockdown ended, so lockdown itself wasn't killing people

Most other countries in Europe showed a similar pattern, except v low sparsely populated countries like Norway, Iceland

That doesn't prove the situation isn't different now wrt "with / of" Covid, but be aware that the same arguments were used then:

Exeter had rapid tedting

Sorry, I missed the real gem "The biggest differences are seen for age groups 20 to 29 and 30 to 39 where around 40% more people who identify as female were tested than people who identify as male."

This also mathematically suggests anther interesting girls under 20 and women over 40 are LESS likely to be tested than boys/ men of the same age. Any theories?

Keepdistance, is that the testing they are doing on campus?