Cases rising in secondary school-aged children - more mitigation measures needed?

[noblegiraffe]

The graph that was notable by its absence in this week's briefing has been released and it shows a steep increase in infections in 10-19 year olds. This is backed up by the ONS survey showing an increase in infections in years 7-11.

The Guardian appears to be the only newspaper to have noticed this, with government mouthpiece Prof Viner blathering 'it is likely that much of the transmission among groups of young people may be outside school settings, as we really have limited evidence of transmission within schools', completely ignoring the graph in front of his face that shows the rise looking remarkably coincident with the date schools re-opened.

With people on here insisting that the number of outbreaks in schools ( 13,000 kids in Birmingham currently self-isolating ) is nothing to worry about and that 'educational settings' just means that university data is being misinterpreted as applying to school children, surely this data must give pause for thought?

Maybe cramming kids into small classrooms with poor ventilation and no mitigation measures isn't the brightest idea and a rethink is needed before winter really sets in?

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/02/covid-cases-among-secondary-school-aged-children-rise-in-england

Noblegiraffe you can’t use university examples for secondary schools. If there were large amounts of asymptotic children then surely we would see symptoms in their parents at least.

Children may spend less time with their faces close to each other than adults.

Is this some kind of a joke? Have you ever seen a group of children/teenagers?

It's hard to know what to think. Obviously this is one anecdotal story but I know two sisters who tested positive recently (one asymptomatic and the other mildly unwell) who both closed their bubbles (one primary, one secondary) but didn't spread it to any other child, or none have had symptoms anyway. If there was huge numbers of asymptomatic cases in schools would loads of parents be ill and it would become very noticeable?

There's always some way to try to dodge the data isn't there? Cases in secondary school children are rising.

You have to be careful with statistics. All children are in school. So any child with covid will be labelled as a case in a school.

Really what matters is how much children are infecting adults as they rarely get very ill themselves.. For schools this is the question of how much more likely are teachers to get covid than non teachers.

If there are currently thousands of asymptomatic DC at school will CV surely this could lead to CV not being an issue in education in few months, as most DC will have had it.

That’s a great point!

Noblegiraffe you can’t use university examples for secondary schools

What is the difference between a university student and a secondary student that means a secondary student is less likely to be asymptomatic than a university student?

We've been told all along that younger people experience covid less severely and are more likely to be asymptomatic. That was sold as a positive thing. Now you're denying it??

so that the kids don't die of cold
Lol, get a grip. Teenagers are not going to die of cold in the UK in the autumn.

You have to be careful with statistics. All children are in school. So any child with covid will be labelled as a case in a school.

Yes. And cases are rising rapidly in secondary children who are in school, compared to when they were not in school.

And given that they spend the day shoulder to shoulder with other kids in poorly ventilated classrooms - a situation that is acknowledged as high risk by scientists and actually would be illegal outside of school, are we really supposed to believe that school isn't a factor?

If there are currently thousands of asymptomatic DC at school will CV surely this could lead to CV not being an issue in education in few months, as most DC will have had it.

Alternatively, they could pass it on to a) their teachers and b) their families, in which case they would a) not being taught properly, and having to isolate and b) out of school, isolating.

Not such good news educationally.

Not that there are asymptomatic children spreading it
And how exactly do you suggest anyone with no symptoms knows they have it ? We are way off being able to test people on a regular basis just on the off chance they may have it asymptomatically. You've more chance of getting a unicorn off Santa this year than getting children tested regularly without symptoms

It's astonishing the nonsense people spout because they are desperate for schools to stay open. Kids spend less time with their faces close to each other than adults . Yeah sure they do.

They are packed into small, poorly ventilated classrooms but they're more likely to have caught covid elsewhere with the rule of 6 in place? Sure.

There aren't large outbreaks in schools? How would you know, since kids are often asymptomatic but won't be tested unless they have symptoms.

I'm not saying schools should close, but people should stop making things up.

Is this some kind of a joke? Have you ever seen a group of children/teenagers?

Yes I have. It’s only a possibility but my DC at least don’t face each other close up for long when they are talking. It’s not like sitting opposite each other at the dinner table for hours. Of course there is a huge risk of infection if they have a friend round in their room but we are discussing schools.

@feelingverylazytoday

so that the kids don't die of cold Lol, get a grip. Teenagers are not going to die of cold in the UK in the autumn.

I know that, but try telling that to a bunch of kids in a classroom with the windows open this last week.

They will also die if they are made to wear a vest. Or, if you're a boy, a jumper. Social death I think.

Kids spend less time with their faces close to each other than adults hmm. Yeah sure they do.

To be fair, this was just a possibility. Please feel free to disagree.

How about my other two possibilities?

Cases have gone up since the start of term. Schools are the only place where these children are mixing in large groups, in close proximity, with poor ventilation and no masks.

Yet people are insisting they are getting infected anywhere but school.

Just doesn’t make sense.

Young children are just much shorter than adults so won’t be breathing on them as much.

Secondary school children are not all “young children”. Every single one of my students is taller than I am.

And given that they spend the day shoulder to shoulder with other kids in poorly ventilated classrooms - a situation that is acknowledged as high risk by scientists and actually would be illegal outside of school, are we really supposed to believe that school isn't a factor?

No. The question is the size of the factor. I really do think looking internationally is the best way to understand this.

Cases have gone up since the start of term. Schools are the only place where these children are mixing in large groups, in close proximity, with poor ventilation and no masks.

Cases starting going up at the end of August. It could be people coming back from holiday or going back to work.

For God's sake women just shut up. I am sure I don't speak only for myself when I say I am sick to death of you.

My advice to you would be to log off from MN and do something else.

If you don't then get out. You have a choice.

1. Noblegiraffe may be your child’s maths teacher. Be careful what you wish for.
2. She doesn’t actually have a choice, at least until Christmas.

No one is forcing you to read her threads, which factual and measured.

It could be people coming back from holiday or going back to work.

Workplace outbreaks are increasing, stupid of Johnson to insist people go back to work. But the graph in the OP shows that the highest numbers of cases recorded are now in the age brackets 20-29, followed by 10-19.

But the graph in the OP shows that the highest numbers of cases recorded are now in the age brackets 20-29, followed by 10-19.

It makes sense that those at least risk are taking the fewest precautions.

I think LynetteScavo is right it that younger people are less likely to have symptoms and there is evidence that people without symptoms spread it less, also younger people have different symptoms.
I do also wonder if people werent trsting this age group as much before as what was the point - they werent going anywhere. I know lots of people who didnt test in summer if there children had a temp. They just kept them in for a few days.

At a local school to me-Rainford High School they had 10 test positive

Because of this they then tested 1100 in the achool and found 40 positive but they also counted ‘inconclusive’ as positive for monitoring purposes