“Together we can defeat this virus”

[IfIHadAHeart]

From Boris’s press conference.

I really don’t think this is a helpful message. A virus cannot be “defeated”. Not to mention that the strategy is completely impossible to understand due to being different across different nations/areas, and the measures themselves seem contradictory and pointless.

Somebody somewhere is gathering fascinating data on all this as a study of social compliance (not a conspiracy theorist, but I’m sure this is all useful information for future governments).

open I don't agree, it was pure media frenzy surrounding Cummings - and most people by that point were completely fed up with the lockdown, so the approval ratings were always going to go down.

You know as well as I do this has more to do with Brexit than taking a child to be cared for by their family. It was an attempted strike for revenge and nothing at all to do with covid. Had it been a Starmer or a Labour minister driving her child to family it would have been seen as something any parent would do when desperate. It was simply an opportunity to hurt Cummings is my view. By the way I don't even like him, but I can see it for what it is. Revenge.

The polarisation in this country should be a bigger worry than covid.

@Friendsoftheearth

open I don't agree, it was pure media frenzy surrounding Cummings - and most people by that point were completely fed up with the lockdown, so the approval ratings were always going to go down.

You know as well as I do this has more to do with Brexit than taking a child to be cared for by their family. It was an attempted strike for revenge and nothing at all to do with covid. Had it been a Starmer or a Labour minister driving her child to family it would have been seen as something any parent would do when desperate. It was simply an opportunity to hurt Cummings is my view. By the way I don't even like him, but I can see it for what it is. Revenge.

The polarisation in this country should be a bigger worry than covid.

This attempt to make the anger about the eye test drivel about Brexit is contemptible. Conservative ministers tried this line a bit at the time, but I think it just made people angrier.

When the only thing people can do is try to turn it part political, they know they've lost on principle.

The Barnard castle story was embarrassing and inexcusable.

Part political = party political

I have no problem with Cummings driving his child to his family house. The only outrage I see about this is on the news. The rest of us are more realistic in real life. They both had covid, the PM was in intensive care what they supposed to do???? No nannies were available at that time as you well know, and they couldn't ask friends. It was a media witchhunt whipped up to try and get rid of him

@Friendsoftheearth Ill take your summary of the facts at face value rather than argue about the detail, so on one level your point makes sense.

But if you’re right that what he did was a perfectly reasonable thing to do, then the rules which he had a hand in making should have allowed for someone to obtain childcare if they were ill, and that should have been made clear.

The fact the government thought it was a perfectly reasonable thing for him to do, all the while enforcing rules on the rest of us which would prohibit us from doing the same and gaslighting us by saying any reasonable parent would and the rules always allowed it, pissed fuckloads of people off and I’m astonished you say that doesn’t reflect opinion of people you know in real life. Almost everyone I know, including tories, were furious and this mirrors polling, and opinions which can be seen on social media etc

Again friendsoftheearth, the data is really clear. Johnson's approval ratings dropped by 20 over the course of the Cummings situation. There was certainly a downward trend before that, but not 20 points over the course of four days. There simply aren't two ways of interpreting this situation.

Your second paragraph is pure speculation and isn't relevant in any case: you can argue all you like that the press should've handled the issue differently, that they were covering it for partisan reasons, whatever. You may be 100% right, 100% wrong or somewhere in the middle, but whatever the reasons for the drop in approval because of Cummings, it is a fact. It happened, and we now all have to deal with it. Railing against it because you find it inconvenient will not make it go away.

Things for which we should be criticising the government (a few of many)

• corruption e.g. giving multi million pound contracts to unsuitable mates for PPE which then didn't get delivered

• disrespect for the process of international law that appals even Conservative politicians

• poor judgement e.g. the A levels debacle, quite a bit of that fall out could have been avoided with more intelligent planning.

• confused messaging which is a crucial thing in a public health crisis. This may well derive from a vague understanding of the principles involved. It really helps to have politicians, as in Ireland and Germany, who have a good scientific background. Failing that, more involvement of scientists would be good (Independent SAGE are very sensible).

So, there are issues where the government could be doing better.

It is important that we can and do discuss these, in the hope that there could be some improvement.

fractional The reason Cummings is still in post lies in the fact there was a provision in the guidance to allow parents to secure childcare for their child in an emergency, that is why he is still working! You are acting like he broke the law, he did not.

The restrictions are mainly recommended by the scientists not government advisors. That is done through a committee. You seem to think Cummings is sat there making up the restrictions as he sees fit, he most certainly isn't. The government is advised by SAGE. The PM makes the decision with the guidance provided by SAGE.

The ratings would be no higher if Corbyn was running the show, or anyone else for that matter. It is largely irrelevant anyway as the government is in place now regardless, for the next three and a half years. So I don't really see the importance particularly at this moment in time.

If people feel we should be following a different path, they will have that view regardless of what you or I may feel, and therefore base their decisions around socialising on that rather than politics.

fractional The reason Cummings is still in post lies in the fact there was a provision in the guidance to allow parents to secure childcare for their child in an emergency, that is why he is still working! You are acting like he broke the law, he did not.

Yes he did. There were two relevant trips. The one from London to Durham seems to have been legal, the one from Barnard Castle based on the explanation he gave was not. It's really, really important to understand this. You're not going to be able to accurately appraise the situation and impact if you don't.

There wasn't anything in the regulations that were then in force permitting people to leave the house to go for drives to see if they were physically fit to do a longer journey. If you think it was legal, explain why.

The ratings would be no higher if Corbyn was running the show, or anyone else for that matter. It is largely irrelevant anyway as the government is in place now regardless, for the next three and a half years. So I don't really see the importance particularly at this moment in time.

Speculation about Corbyn is irrelevant. He's politically dead. What matters is now. And the importance is that low approval and trust in government impacts on people's behaviour.

mobile.twitter.com/richardhorton1/status/1309262641664327682

This tweet from Richard Horton seems timely for this thread.

I honestly don't understand why anyone not directly politically or personally invested in Cummings even bothers trying to defend the Barnard Castle idiocy.

open Actually taking a drive to check your eye sight is not illegal or wrong, and I would like you to attach the link that clarifies the legal standing on any of the journeys that he made. I can assure that firstly the advice was just guidance anyway, and secondly it is a known fact that some people do experience problems with their vision after covid. I don't feel the need to defend him or anyone, but I can understand as a parent with no living family nearby the predicament they were in.

I suspect we all know why you don't want to discuss Corbyn being in charge of the country with covid! Can you just imagine???

We had the choice of two PMS in December: one was Johnson and the other was Corbyn. I actually think it IS worth considering the outcome had Labour won - can you only imagine how Corbyn would have coped?? It actually doesn't bear thinking about.

Calling Corbyn politically dead when he was the only real opposition just a few months ago is closing the stable door after the horse has bolted somewhat.

Interestingly friendsoftheearth, Durham Police disagree with you on the legality of Cummings' actions. They think the Barnard Castle trip was likely to be a breach.

www.politicshome.com/news/article/read-in-full-durham-police-statement-on-dominic-cummings

Note that a minor breach still means illegal.

The Regulations that were then in force only allowed people in England to leave their home for a limited list of reasons. Here they are.

www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/contents/made

It was then illegal to leave the place where you were staying if you weren't doing it for one of the listed reasons. Please explain to us which of the reasons checking your eyesight comes under. Once you've done that, we can move on to the Highway Code.

I think ordinary voters have moved on from Corbyn. Who cares what he'd have been like? I live in this reality, where he lost, Starmer took over.

What matters now is covid19, the economy, public health.

As for Corbyn, yes of course the horse has bolted. That's entirely the point. He's dead in the water. He does not matter. His political career is over. Starmer is about as likely to promote him as he is to fly to Pluto, and enough of the PLP hate him that he'll never get on a leadership ballot again.

The only people who don't get this are the more deluded of the Labour Left and rightwingers who want to use him either as a comfort blanket or a way to stop people slagging off the incompetence of the Tory government. Both extremes are very daft indeed.

So why wasn't he charged? If you are so certain that the law was broken why not charge him for the 'minor breach'?

repeat you obviously don't feel comfortable talking about the realities of a Labour government, and to be honest the party isn't doing much better under Starmer. It is almost like we don't even have an opposition! The only opposition I can see is the one coming from the Tory backbenches!! Starmer has no view on anything. He is firmly straddled on the fence. I have no idea what he even stands for! What he believes in, what he cares about. It is all a mystery to me. Apart from the fact he is a sir, and that is rather revolting to me. Sir Keir. WTAH? It is supposed to be a party with its roots based in the working classes and yet they have Sir Keir as their leader. I think they seriously lost their way to be honest.

The one great thing about supporting neither main party is the ability to not care either way, and not to feel an attachment to any one side. I can see Johnson scrabbling around with too much on his plate, I can see Starmer scrabbling around for meaning and definition.

I don't see any improvements in Labour fortunes to be honest.

Read the Durham Police statement again. They didn't think it appropriate to retrospectively charge for a minor breach. One might agree or disagree with that but the justification they set out is clear. And honestly, make sure you actually understand the law before trying to argue about it. You have clearly been labouring under some misconceptions.

I'm saying regular voters - the sort who might change their mind - have probably moved on from Corbyn.

Unfortunately my real-life prime minister has done a huge amount to damage my country. That bothers me more than what any leader of the opposition might or might not have done. Johnson has been PM while friends' parents died in care homes, while businesses in my town close and while schools in my area have shut.

Durham police would not normally go around arresting people for driving to and from a place, they would ALWAYS give a caution, at the very very most, and even that would seem extremely heavy handed (and very unlikely) given his reasons.

So the reason why he would never have been charged under any scenario open boils down to the fact it would have been entirely disproportionate. The courts would have thrown it out, it would never the light of day.

but you can keep on banging away. I might add I work for the MOJ.

repeat covid has caused your problems, not the PM but nothing anyone says will sway your gov bashing it seems, not even the facts.

Are you impressed with Starmer's sterling job so far? I am not.

@Friendsoftheearth

Durham police would not normally go around arresting people for driving to and from a place, they would ALWAYS give a caution, at the very very most, and even that would seem extremely heavy handed (and very unlikely) given his reasons.

So the reason why he would never have been charged under any scenario open boils down to the fact it would have been entirely disproportionate. The courts would have thrown it out, it would never the light of day.

but you can keep on banging away. I might add I work for the MOJ.

That's nice. I'm a solicitor, someone who actually has to know that the law is and interpret it. Whatever role you have at the MOJ it clearly isn't one relating to the area we're talking about. And no doubt if you had any legal qualifications you'd have mentioned it.

Back to Cummings, nice goalpost move. Whether his actions were legal and whether a fine would have been proportionate are two separate issues. We're discussing the first.

I don't necessarily disagree with you or them on the second point, particularly if they were acting in line with their usual practice during lockdown (we don't know if they were but it seems at least a realistic possibility). However, that still makes you wrong in your claim that he didn't break the law. There is a reason you've not been able to tell us which part of the Regulations then in force covered the Durham Castle trip.

You constructed a whole theory about how he didn't do anything illegal and it was all dastardly Remainers, without even understanding the relevant legislation. That's an egg on face situation, I'm afraid, and I'm going to keep banging on about it for as long as your bullshitting continues.

@Friendsoftheearth

repeat covid has caused your problems, not the PM but nothing anyone says will sway your gov bashing it seems, not even the facts.

Are you impressed with Starmer's sterling job so far? I am not.

I'm not government 'bashing', I'm saying what I see happening to me, my area and my country.

Johnson hasn't just got Covid wrong, there's a lot of concern locally about the planning rules changes for example.

I don't feel I need a strong view of Starmer now. My biggest concerns are covid-related, both health and the economy.

Yes it can, with a vaccine. We don't need to live with covid forever

Eh? Yes we will have to live with it forever. We have a vaccine for flu, we still have to live with that killing 1000s every year.

Thousands is rather different from tens or hundreds of thousands. It's the scale of the problem.

@OpenlyGayExOlympicFencer everything you have posted is bang on the money. Bravo.

@Friendsoftheearth

to be honest the party isn't doing much better under Starmer. It is almost like we don't even have an opposition!

link to Telegraph article

"Sir Keir... has given the party a three point increase in a fortnight, putting them on 42 per cent,... The Conservatives are on 39 per cent, a drop of three points.

The poll also suggested 55 per cent of voters believe Sir Keir is ready to be prime minister, and 40 per cent believe Labour is ready to form the next government."

I don't feel I need a strong view of Starmer now

Well that is just as well isn't it, very convenient one might say, because how would you form a view on what the party now stands for when no one knows!

here

I agree the Tory backbenchers are doing an outstanding job as the opposition, given we don't seem to have a coherent one from the Labour party currently.
I would be reluctant to give the one poll much credence, or a bunch of polls even - they will be different again next week, and it hardly matters anyway, given the next election is years away.