Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Hello, following you as always! Thanks to all.

Just a point about Italian schools- masks ARE mandatory (at least where I am) until seated at SD desks when they can be removed. Schools are handing out packs weekly. As far as I know, each school is making its own decision about class sizes, DD is in a class of 24 and they have been split into 2 groups and are in school one day and participating in the same class but on Meet the next. Etc. We've not been back as long as other countries so it's still difficult to tell if there has been a real school-cases connection so far.

Also re: Croatia- it's also THE holiday destination for this part of Italy and it was returning holidaymakers who saw our first "second wave" cases back in August leading to the obligatory testing and quarantine if you go there.

It’s worth highlighting that the govt data on the coronavirus dashboard does not double count People who have more than one positive test.

“If a person has had more than one positive test they are only counted as one case.”
Source: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/about-data
see section “Daily and cumulative numbers of cases”

It explains how they count cases quite well.

Test and trace data is similar and only counts positive cases once.

“Figures for people tested, and people testing positive have been de-duplicated so people who have multiple tests in both pillars 1 and 2 would only appear once.“
Source: www.gov.uk/government/publications/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-methodology/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-methodology

Hope this helps !

@MRex thank you for the background on Oxford. I appreciate it.

@MRex

By the way, anecdota - anyone in Oxford who has a quick panic soon about a massive increase (and *@littleowl1* on their behalf), huge numbers of students have tested positive and been confined to flats. Better flats than halls, but of course it increases the risk of cross-infections.

Oxford Uni isn't back yet, they start 0th week (Freshers) on Sunday, so I'd guess the majority of students are from Oxford Brookes Uni, which is generally East Oxford/Headington.

So there'll be another influx of students this week, who will generally be in halls (many colleges offer 3 years in halls). That may make it easier to spread, but probably also easier to contain as they are less "out in the community".

Interesting article Molly, I hope Dido's looking at the tracking backwards information. The waste water analysis could be great for identifying clusters, but the results are taking an absurdly long time here.

Thanks for the education link @TheSunIsStillShining, it's useful to see the same effects across many countries.

I don't understand why there isn't a research report examining the link of travel and foreign holidays. Early reports on the pandemic showed a clear link with flights e.g. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1684118220300864. We know from Germany's tracking and the link of infections to tourist countries that there has been spread. It would be useful to understand if it's been a small factor in increasing spread, or a large factor. I suspect it hasn't been done because it's too bloody hard given gaps in so many countries for testing and infection source tracking, but it's an important puzzle piece.

@Witchend - yes, Oxford Brookes, sorry I should have clarified.

On Scotland again. That's an excellent point @littleowl1, there isn't any distinction made for the overall data on Scotland on the main dashboard, the terminology used in Scotland differs but the numbers are the same. Sticking with 29th data as we were looking at that: Pillar 1 - 3,607, Pillar 2 - 9,504, 806 cases and using the 8% say 1000 tests inconclusive and rerun we have 1800 tests rerun, announced tests are still so much lower. There is a discrepancy somewhere, I don't understand what it is. It's either the daft "I tested you in May" issue, or are they running surveillance tests and excluding from positivity but not excluding from pillar 2 perhaps?

Just a point about Italian schools- masks ARE mandatory (at least where I am) until seated at SD desks when they can be removed. Schools are handing out packs weekly. As far as I know, each school is making its own decision about class sizes, DD is in a class of 24 and they have been split into 2 groups and are in school one day and participating in the same class but on Meet the next. Etc. We've not been back as long as other countries so it's still difficult to tell if there has been a real school-cases connection so far.

This is why any study that proclaims 'schools don't drive infection' is a bit suspect.

I have no doubt schools don't drive infection when socially distanced and with masks and small class sizes / bubbles.

That's the opposite of the situation in the UK though. Crowded, very large class sizes no social distancing and no masks.

It's comparing apples to oranges.

I think it's pointless to just look at school reopening without looking at the conditions under which they are reopening.

Anyone here who has real life research experience? I have a few questions (who'd have thought? :) )

www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/18760338.oxford-risking-covid-lockdown-city-nears-red-alert/

From the Oxford Mail - Oxford approaching local lockdown levels. I will be surprised if, with all the Oxford Uni students returning now, they manage to avoid this.

In my opinion, Oxford Uni has less excuse for opening up in the way they have and forcing students to return (by holding in person teaching and not offering purely online with no disadvantage) than many other Universities. Some universities would go under without student accommodation money but Oxford has to be one of the few that wouldn't.

They also have large numbers of international students who could be stuck here indefinitely if things go badly.

I totally agree with you about this.

@BigChocFrenzy - just spotted you said you wanted datasets for the accompanying slides, it's literally just the data shown but you can download it here: www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-7-april-2020.

By the way, did I post this link before? It's quite useful for getting quick comparisons between a local authority and others in the region, plus other regions. lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/lga-research-report-covid-19-rolling-weekly-tracker?mod-group=AllRegions_England&mod-type=namedComparisonGroup

The fact that 1 in 200 people currently have active Covid in the latest Imperial study has really scared me this morning. It seems so high that 330,000 currently have it. Does this mean that we are going to see a huge death rate over half term? Can anyone help me unpick the numbers?

On the education data...
I agree @MRex that there should be a complex study including travel. The problem is the gov is the only body who has the data. They know who came/went/where, when. And that could be overlayed with the tested positive. But unfortunately as important that it could be, it has a lot of legal blocks, so not doable. Which I think is stupid. I think it would be important to analyze john smith's movements and draw conclusions on an anonymized level. But I'm saying that because I could not care less about john's actual movements, and would never think to use that information for anything else than this study. But the paranoia that it could be used for other things, could be sold,... is too valid.

I looked around a very tiny bit at night on which country opened schools how, but it looks like there is a huge difference in between schools within the same country even, so on this level it's useless analysis :( and I'm not sure that the data is available readily.

@IloveJKRowling it is Oxford Brookes university that has gone back so far and that article is talking about, not Oxford Uni. Oxford Brookes is a different uni and prob not so financially affluent as Oxford uni.

My friend went there and I visited her in halls. They are very ordinary uni halls like standard unis. Nothing like oxford accommodation.

There is clearly an issue there and been handled badly

1 in 200?!!?!? Really? Given theres 300 families at our school (say avergae 3ish in a family) that means 5 people would have it in our school community alone...

@Mrex you are absolutely right and sorry I should have been clearer. My earlier post relates to case count methodology for England. There are separate methodologies published for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

Yes, I know the cases are at Oxford Brookes.

But Oxford Uni are going back too around now (a lot of students already coming back). So the influx of additional students from all over the world to live in cramped conditions probably isn't going to improve the situation. And Oxford (not Oxford Brookes) CAN afford to do completely online tuition and take the hit on accommodation, they just don't want to (I know the finances are more complicated than that, but at base this is true).

(For many subjects, obviously medicine etc does need to be in person, but they're bringing everyone back)

Also, Oxford has the college system and while some colleges have great accommodation, other colleges don't and many of their students live in rented accommodation in the city. With no guarantees as to quality.

@littleowl1 - you were correct though because no difference is highlighted for Scotland's data tracking. The difference I'm noting is what Nicola Sturgeon says versus the PHE dashboard.

@PineappleUpsideDownCake

1 in 200?!!?!? Really? Given theres 300 families at our school (say avergae 3ish in a family) that means 5 people would have it in our school community alone...

I know, that’s what I thought. I was scared taking the children to school this morning

Can someone explain for me, why are Imperial saying the rise is slowing if the incidence is now 1 in 200, thought to be 1 in 500 last week (by ONS iirc)?

I'm sure I'm missing something here?

And what about all the people who have already had it? Has it been more prevalent than we thought? (Im ina low risk area and not conscious of knowing anyone who has had it. However I suspect a few of us did in March....)

The other thing that I am wondering about is if there is anyone doing 2 things:

1. cross analysis of schools and economical impact? Eg. how much more does it cost to the gov to test, how are sectors affected by schools being in or out...cost of NHS vs cost of online schooling? even to the level of cost of political "points" vs economical damage on certain issues like mandatory mask wearing.

1. setting up a horizontal study to track and see the effects of long covid in kids. Both from health/medical perspective and economical. I am wondering how my son's (15) chances have changed on going to uni because of this. I think that his chances are still great, because he is bright and I am pushing him at home. But his friend has been isolating for 2 weeks with symptoms and did jack in the meantime. Even he thinks that he is already behind his in-class peers and will need a few days to catch up. So I would be interested in their long-term "how are they doing" even though we won't have a control group to compare it to other than historical datasets.

And in all of these longer term analyses Brexit will be another factor that will have to be taken into account. I'm not envying any reseracher who has to set up these studies :)