Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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That is a lot of people unaware they have it

@MRex

From the coronavirus dashboard:

• Antibody / serology test capacity staying flat at 120k/day, but only about 5k tests being done per day on average
• PCR swab / Covid infection test capacity has recently had a low point of 200k, high point 288k and looks to be regularly 230k-260k per day on average
• Pillar 1 NHS portion varies 55k-80k typically 73k weekday results and 57k weekend results
• Pillar 2 general public tests 130k-185k per day, typically about 160k
• Pillar 3 antibody 1k - 6k per day
• Pillar 4 surveillance tests have gone as low as 4k age had catch-ups, but usually about 23k per day.

Now, we know there is some retesting of inconclusives and rechecking in case of false positives - but should still be about 120k general public tests in that (finger in the air, please anyone else to analyse and adjust that number).

.... I agree with your ~ 160k for general bod tests

What info do we have about the % retests ?
My ballpark finger can't really go further than the 160k without that info

Cold food factories have proven to be excellent at covid spread before. The recent huge outbreak in Norfolk was contained fairly well and quickly, so let's hope Cornwall manages the same.

I would be cautious aboit the term asymptomatic, which can refer to:

1. People who are pre-symptomatic as only recently infected
2. People who have had symptoms but all thought it was some other but doing the rounds. Particularly if they all got fairly low viral load or a strain with lighter symptoms (sore throat, fatigue and headache - everyone could have assumed it was a cold).

1. Zero hours and no sick pay, nobody too unwell but also nobody wanted to admit being ill because they can't afford to be and are concerned if they admit it that they'll get a fine.

Seroprevalence just hasn't hit high numbers enough to suggest huge asymptomatic case volumes except among late teens / early 20s.

Does the number of outbreaks in cold food factories mean we may have an increased problem even outdoors as the weather turns?

Large hospital outbreak in Wales:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54351724

@BigChocFrenzy - sorry, I was being lazy with providing my finger in the air backup info because it's a VERY lightweight method: www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-52891611. 22nd May "140k tests on 80k people" - not actually accurate if you read the article as it misses the surveillance tests 10705, so 91k people, plus it ignores routine NHS and care home staff. Good news though is that the surveillance and regular testing are already removed from the 160k.
We know positives get a retest, the article also says 8% tests inconclusive. Say 12800 inconclusive retested, 7000 positives retested, worst case they're all redone twice. So remove 40k. Gives 120k.

@midgebabe
I think so in theory yes.
But if weather miserable as it often can be in winter everyone will retreat indoors to their own families more so than in summer so that should counter it I would hope

Sero studies I've read in Germany of towns, plus detaiiled case reports found 14 -17% completely asymptomatic

e.g. studies of Bad Feilbach and Kupferzell

www.rki.de/DE/Content/Gesundheitsmonitoring/Studien/cml-studie/cml-studie_node.html

Mrex As a first ballpark estimate, 120k seems reasonable

@wintertravel1980
Yes that is worrying. 34 cases there on Mon 21st but more than doubled 9 days later.
But on the plus side cases in Caerphilly and Newport reducing since local lockdowns introduced two weeks ago.
Cases on Anglesey still v low after being skewed higher by meat plant outbreak a few months ago. Hope that bodes well for the Cornwall meat plant outbreak in terms of likelihood for successful containment.
In other (positive) Welsh news, Kirsty Williams, Welsh Education Minister, her usual sensible self at the press conf earlier today re students and schools situations.

Merseyside news - reports that no decision was made tonight after meeting between government and local leaders about what extra measures to bring in here (the mayor wants a circuit breaker of 2 weeks shutting of shops and hospitality) . But interesting that it sounds that discussions focussed on wanting the financial support packages in place before the restrictions come into force. A sign of understanding that people will only obey the rules if they can afford to.

I think so in theory yes.
But if weather miserable as it often can be in winter everyone will retreat indoors to their own families more so than in summer so that should counter it I would hope

We don't actually know if it's the cold, since the other thing cold stores have is little ventilation, they keep the same air in there all the time - 'cos it's expensive to cool the fresh.

That means it might be the lack of ventilation, rather than the cold which is the key factor, which means outdoors in winter would not amplify cases (of course if people are indoors in poorly ventilated 'cos it's winter...)

As above about air continuing to circulate. In addition, the virus can live longer on surfaces at low temperatures, potentially years when frozen, so that means one person's viral load can infect many more people. Another thing cold food factories have is lots of noise, so people shout more.

@Saisong

"This government study ondouble testing for airport arrivalsshowed that on day of arrival, only 7% of infected people showed as positive

However, after isolation, a 2nd test picked up 86% of those infected on day 6, or 98% if tested on day 10"

I find this confuddling. The accepted wisdom seems to be you must get a test within 5 days of symptoms appearing, or it will be about useless. Yet this government study claims testing at 10 days picks up 98% of infections?
Which is correct? (sorry if this has been covered before, I haven't read all threads)

It's day 6 of quarantine, or day 10 of quarantine, not symptoms.

Basically highlighting that if all you do is test at the airport you will only detect 7% of people who would go on to develop covid within 14 days

Other theories I've seen on meat processing plants are 1. They are noisy so workers are likely to shout at each other (spraying viral droplets) 2) they aren't set up for social distancing, production lines result in works being very close together for long periods 3. Frequent washing and cleaning often with hoses causes aerosols

Unverified local intel here in Cornwall is that some of the staff at the factory were migrant Portuguese workers who didn't quarantine on their return from Portugal - couldn't afford to.

I've not seen that confirmed or denied, but it's a common theme across meat processing plant outbreaks apparently.

Sorry if it's been asked already but does anyone know if the datasets are available for the graphs from the press conference today, showing weekly cases and test positivity by age group? The government website only has the slides as far as I can see.

Here are the briefing slides from today again:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/923117/2020-09-300COVID-19presssconferenceslidess_.pdf

I can't find datasets for this

Insights for Education put together an interesting analysis of school and Covid.
Here's the Guardian piece:
"No clear link between school opening and Covid surge, study finds
Widespread reopening of schools after lockdowns and vacations is generally not linked to rising Covid-19 rates, a study of 191 countries has found, but lockdown closures will leave a 2020 “pandemic learning debt” of 300bn missed school days.

The analysis, by the Geneva-based independent educational foundation Insights for Education, said 84% of those 300bn days would be lost by children in poorer countries, and warned that 711 million pupils were still out of school.

“It’s been assumed that opening schools will drive infections, and that closing schools will reduce transmission, but the reality is much more complex,” said IfE’s founder and chief executive Randa Grob-Zakhary.

The vast majority - 92% - of countries that are through their first wave of Covid-19 infections have started to reopen school systems, even as some are seeing a second surge.

IfE found that 52 countries that sent students back to school in August and September - including France and Spain - saw infection rates rise during the vacation compared to when they were closed.

In Britain and Hungary, however, infection levels dropped after initial school closures, remained low during the holidays, and began rising after reopening.

Full analysis of these 52 countries found no firm correlation between school status and infections - pointing to a need to consider other factors, IfE said.

“The key now is to learn from those countries that are reopening effectively against a backdrop of rising infections,” Grob-Zakhary said.

The report said 44 countries have kept schools closed.

It found countries are developing strategies for schools during the pandemic - including some, such as Italy and France, which order temporary school closures on a case-by-case basis.

Other measures include policies on masks, class rotations and combining remote with in-school lessons."

The full report:
education.org/covid-19

Their school measures and covid numbers overlay charts are great :)
Haven't read through it, just looked at the pretty, colorful pictures (it's late) and a few questions come to mind. Just looking at Europe.

It is quite obvious that in countries where the number of cases have been going up and they opened schools the numbers jumped steadily but it doesn't seem that schools are the main drivers: France, Austria, Czech R., Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Greece (there are other factors), Italy seems to be on this trend, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia.
As far as I remember all these countries opened with the premise that no mask mandatory in class, no reduced class sizes. It would be interesting to track when indoor/in class masks got mandatory and will they have a significant effect. I might drop them a mail to include it.
I really don't understand what they were thinking.

There are cases where schools specifically seem to drive the numbers up: Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Hungary, UK, Iceland, Luxembourg?, Poland? - although initially numbers dropped despite schools - then jumped, Romania, Switzerland

Didn't include Sweden. They are a very different ballgame.

And outliers where despite schools opening numbers are going down: Croatia
I do have a theory though on them: for most eastern european country population Croatia is THE HOLIDAY SPOT! (Like Spain is for UK) They flock there like there was no tomorrow. So their smaller July boulder might be the first wave of imported transmissions showing up, with the second bigger peak of late aug, early sept showing for the main tourist mass exodus.

Also, if someone gets sick on a holiday and gets into hospital and gets tested for covid where will that person be registered: home country or a number for the host country? And if they are only mildly symptomatic are they kept in mandatory quarantine (scenario: tourist goes into AE with diarrhea and sore throat. They test him because they have a test lying around and it a +) - what happens then?

One glaring mistake in that article.

Infections in many parts of the UK were already rising before schools went back.

I agree France and Spain for example were further in the curve when schools opened.

I'm not sure if everyone has already seen this but I found it very informative

@SellFridges

I just spotted this and it made me gasp. Does this mean the amounts of asymptomatic cases in general could actually be far higher than previously estimated?

I spoke to a mum in the playground yesterday, she works in a nursing home & 2 staff were found to be positive in their routine weekly testing with zero symptoms & no idea where they caught it.

R4 Professor Paul Elliot - latest survey R reducing. But very early days. So margin there. Still, could be good. Keep going with current restrictions.