Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Links added to OP:

• NHS England Hospital activity
• UK School attendance stats

Links removed:
None

Request to posters giving a link:
. Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
. Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

Thank you big choc.

Re briefing, LBC were saying yesterday afternoon it’ll be today at 5 with Boris, Whitty and Valence and they didn’t think there would be any big announcements there, it was more for the stats/info to keep everyone updated now cases are increasing. Hopefully it’ll be at least a weekly event because I do think it helps keep people focused on where we are. Now let’s hope the press use their questions wisely and for worthwhile questions.

Ooh found it! Fell off the last one. Nothing useful to add but massive thanks as ever for the stats and wisdom

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Thank you!

Than, you

Thanks for the new thread.

Did I imagine it or was there discussion of false positives and false negatives in the last thread?

Good morning!

Apologies to those on iPad as it isn't working for them, but a comment to add. The NHS progression dashboard continues to show a drop in triages in some areas, but from the bubble chart some areas of Yorkshire looks to have increased significantly: digital.nhs.uk/dashboards/progression.
Has Yorkshire just been hit by rhinovirus and we think it's a blip (like was suspected with SW London), or are cases rising in Yorkshire?

According to the map cases are increasing in Yorkshire. I've been watching Leeds get increasingly blue and there are three MSOAs with high levels- in the 50s.

The areas are where lots of students live. However, uni outbreaks haven't been reported.

They just interviewed an ICU consultant from Leeds on the bbc. She said there's a real difference in people presenting at hospital now compared to March in that people are coming in earlier and not as ill. She put it down to testing in that people now already know that they have Covid but I suspect it's also down to people were very scared to go anywhere near hospitals in March....

She also talked about Covid secure hospitals which I experienced last week which are a great idea and worked really well.

Checking in

Thank you

Another ITU consultant in Leeds said the same to me. They're not pouring in, as they were in the spring. People are less ill, and it's not a factor if age, most of the covid patients ( in general, not in ITU specifically) are elderly and from cate homes. They are recovering and being discharged more quickly.

He speculated that it was a decreasing viral dose. I suppose it's probably a combination of factors.

Study on IFR of flu V covid stratified by age. Caution: preliminary analysis and results. twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1311025455655301120?s=19

I've attached the key plot, showing that covid appears to have higher IFR at all ages over 30, with a rising difference in risk as age increases until about 60 (13X at 60, 15X at 70, 13X at 80 are probably not statistically different). I'd be interested to see this broken down by sex, because that might explain the change in trend at age 80+ as there are a lot more women of that age than men.

Viral load may only stay low while community cases are low. Compared with March, cases are low. Large enough to see more hospital admissions, but if they get out of control again there's surely a risk of higher viral load? Care homes back in March still had lots of visitors, testing of staff wasn't happening, limited PPE usage etc.

Thank you for great threads

@NeurotrashWarrior

Thanks for the new thread.

Did I imagine it or was there discussion of false positives and false negatives in the last thread?

.... Maybe my post to correct any confusion caused by Raab on Sky News about testing for airport arrivals ? That was after seeing that someone on another thread had misunderstood him to mean only 7% positives were real: ..... SkyNews@SkyNews

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab says the "challenge" with testing for ‪#COVID19‬ in airports is 'the very high false positive rate'
and adds 'only 7% of tests will be successful in identifying those who have the virus'.
(video)
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1308655561081225217

What Raab meant - if he understood the governments own publications -
is that there is a very high false negative rate especially on day of arrival

This government study on double testing for airport arrivals showed that
on day of arrival, only 7% of infected people showed as positive

However, after isolation, a 2nd test picked up 86% of those infected on day 6, or 98% if tested on day 10

Investigation into the effectiveness of “double testing” travellers incoming to the UK for signs of COVID-19 infection

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909382/s0544-phe-double-testing-travellers-170620-sage-42.pdf

The wider use of masks and PPE, together with better testing, distancing and general awareness will hopefully keep initial viral dose lower than March/April at least.

The wider use of masks and PPE, together with better testing, distancing and general awareness will hopefully keep initial viral dose lower than March/April at least.

I hope so, but let's not forget, none of this is happening in schools (no masks, no distancing, indoor for many hours in large groups) - so viral load COULD be high in that environment which is worrying for all teachers but particularly ECV and ECV parents.

I wonder why schools aren't even adopting masks when there's a confirmed case in the school - it seems like this could be a good temporary measure for the non-isolating years to reduce transmission and viral load given there's no space for distancing.

Posting to catch up!

@IloveJKRowling schools aren't using masks because the DfE effectively won't let them.

@cathyandclare I have heard similar from Bradford

Thank you for this helpful thread, a haven of sense.