Why are we in lockdown when no one is dying?

[SplunkPostGres]

I don’t understand why we’ve got local lockdown again. Cases are high but deaths are still low. Seems like a lot of cases are asymptomatic? So why are the lockdowns and restrictions needed?

The virus is infectious. This means people catch it from each other.

If lots of people catch the virus, the number of people dying will be bigger than if not many people catch the virus.

If a lot of people are in hospital, there won't be room for people who have other problems, so more of them will die too.

How can anyone have lived on planet earth continuously since March and still not know this?

@SoupDragon

so why are we putting curfews on pubs but carrying on with schools

Because education is more important than getting pissed with your mates.

I agree Education is important but it is also the main contributor to the spread of Covid. Is the govt serious about reducing Covid or are we just introducing measures for face value. Is Covid a serious threat or not? How Big a threat obviously not that big or we would close schools again or reduce numbers of pupils at school at any one time . Especially as they keep saying these measures are only needed short term. You can see why people might lose faith in lockdown measures when it seems there are so many contradictory measures and we are just skirting round the edges introducing measures which might reduce number marginly but not addressing the main issues.

I like the phrase used above “you don’t wait to put a seatbelt on when you’re in the middle of a car crash” and think some level of restrictions are appropriate to contain spread.

However, I think the current rules in areas of local lockdown are too draconian and potentially counterproductive... the rule of six should have been the limit. Measures need to be sustainable for a long period without causing undue hardship. Banning people from meeting those outside their households isn’t sustainable, and risks a backlash and non-compliance that will undermine the whole strategy, as people give up on the whole thing.

It’s a bit like a diet... If you go on a hard crash diet (ie “local lockdowns”), whereas you’ll theoretically lose more weight if you stick to it, you’re likely to fall off the wagon as it becomes too hard, than you would be if you cut calories and ate sensibly. I worry for the north of the country.

What about the murderers, rapists, drug dealers, paedophiles.....who's tracking them if the police are stopping people from meeting up?!

Well, if people aren’t meeting up there isnt much scope for drug dealing etc.

Please dont quote New Zealand.......it's not a huge travel hub with millions upon millions of people living in close proximity

No, I’ll quote you Singapore and South Korea

"We all die. And most people on here will have experienced grief and loss.

I lost both parents to cancer. One of my brothers was killed in a motorcycle accident, one of nephews was killed a car crash, I have a cousin who died in a hit and run, a friend who was murdered and another who committed suicide.

Life can be very cruel. It can also be very joyous. Currently there is very little happiness and even less hope.

I cannot envisage that in anything remotely described as the near future we will have zero Covid deaths. So in order to have a functioning, orderly and viable society we need to accept that Covid will cause a certain number of people to get ill and a certain number to die. I think that the acceptable number is roughly a little higher than where we are now."

I'm sorry for your losses @AlecTrevelyan006, I lost both my parents young, 1 to suicide and 1 to a long and painful death by heart disease, all grandparents, a cousin to brain cancer and a number of friends to a variety of illnesses and causes.

What we need to consider though is that we have precautions and restrictions in place to try to prevent motorcycle accidents, car crashes, murder and suicide. We have screening programmes for common cancers, Highway Code, seatbelts, airbags, mental health support services (admittedly poor and increasingly so), police officers, domestic abuse support and so on.

For COVID we have nothing except social distancing, masks and steroids/ventilators if people get so ill they need hospital treatment. We cannot just allow it to run rampant, if we do not only will deaths be at an unacceptable level but we won't see an improvement to the economic situation because schools, hospitals, water treatment plants, supermarkets, train stations, call centres, restaurant ants, pubs....... all need staff to run. People can't work if they are ill or self isolating.

@RepeatSwan

The virus is infectious. This means people catch it from each other.

If lots of people catch the virus, the number of people dying will be bigger than if not many people catch the virus.

If a lot of people are in hospital, there won't be room for people who have other problems, so more of them will die too.

How can anyone have lived on planet earth continuously since March and still not know this?

That's a fair point, however at this point we know that the majority of the positive cases who will need medical help and will possibly die from the virus are elderly. So decisions should be made with that in mind.

Locking down everyone does more harm than good at this point, especially since the young and healthy know it doesn't affect them. They are going to choose to prioritize their mental health and socialize rather than staying at home and following such nonsensical rules like the rules of six, in order to avoid catching the virus and giving it to their boyfriend's sister's co-worker's grandmother.

charities are warning about the victims of domestic abuse
What, that they might catch Covid and die or suffer long-term Long Covid disability?
Or do you mean the need - long before Covid came along - for more funding and better resources? You know, because two women a week were dying before the pandemic.

Yes, amazing the number of posters who have now developed concerns where none existed before

Because certain members of the elite have put a lot of money into commodities related to a pandemic and want to see massive profits. Brexit meant their off shore accounts wouldn't be affected so they now want to fill their coffers.

@Aridane

What about the murderers, rapists, drug dealers, paedophiles.....who's tracking them if the police are stopping people from meeting up?!

Well, if people aren’t meeting up there isnt much scope for drug dealing etc.

Mean nasty world governments taking away the freedom to commit crime. FREEDOM!!!

Actually. Why so much outrage over restricted opportunity to spread an infectious disease, yet mostly public acceptance that an individual has no freedom to take whatever drug they like, for example heroin or cocaine?
A controlled legal dose (if it was decriminalised) risks only the health of the individual taking the drug.

@Pootle40

And why are we ok that our police force are spending their time breaking up 'gatherings'

What about the murderers, rapists, drug dealers, paedophiles.....who's tracking them if the police are stopping people from meeting up?!

Why do we think we can do the impossible - controlling an infection?

Please dont quote New Zealand.......it's not a huge travel hub with millions upon millions of people living in close proximity

My relative is a policeman. He is in his early twenties, fit and healthy. He caught Covid-19 doing his job just before lockdown. He was so ill we thought he might not recover and he suffered from PTSD afterwards because he was so frightened by how ill he was. At the same time, every other policeman/woman in his small police station was off ill with the virus too as they all infected each other. At that point the town where he works was effectively without a police force as the police force in this area is understaffed due to cuts, they had to keep it very quiet.

So, it is really not as simple as your post makes out.

@user1487194234

Agree it seems to be a massive over reaction which is likely to end up with more non Covid deaths

This twitter thread by a doctor explains the issues well. Amongst other things he pointed out if the NHS becomes overwhelmed, ‘the NHS cannot deliver a “normal” service in terms of treating cancer, serious chronic illness and non-covid life threatening emergencies at the same time as dealing with a very high covid infection rate. It simply doesn’t have the resources, particular the staff.’

twitter.com/tristan_cope/status/1310162805241401346?s=21

All the stuff about young vs old is just blah blah blah nonsense.

Your choice at current time is - suppress the virus or have a shit load of deaths.

In fact let's have a plebiscite, 'deaths or suppression'.

In my post about deaths I didn't mention long covid. Was trying to keep it simple as the op claims to still not understand.

Anyone who thinks we should let it run - I hope you are ok with your children potentially having serious after effects, or you yourself not being able to work for a longish time. Mmm, blood clots, anyone?

The flu has a vaccine and lots of people still die, typically those who are the most vulnerable who in turn are the ones who typically get the vaccine.

The true stats aren’t accurately known...yet

Most people who have died its been because of comorbidities not linked to the virus. The same person would’ve died if they got seasonal flu/cold- it’s sad but it’s what happens when people are vulnerable. The high statistics initially it’s unknown how many of those had covid as not all got tested, so again true figures aren’t known.

Isolation is for those who are sick to stop the spread, not for ever Tom dick or Harry to do as a just in case. Quarantine isn’t an effective measure for those who are able to heal from a virus. Psychologically it will have far more effects, so the local and national lockdowns aren’t as effective as people would like. Don’t wear it like a badge of honour when every single year previously most of us have gone out with a cold and potentially put vulnerable people in life or death situations. if People are vulnerable they’re vulnerable to a cold, which is around all year, therefore they’re at risk all year. As a healthy person With no external factors I’m in a good position to heal, like most of the population, but the freedom we have is taken away.

Before any of you think I’m selfish or that I don’t care. I do. But I also care about those who have died because they’ve been locked up with abusive partners, I care about the people who have found it too much and haven’t been able to continue to live, I care about the people who have been all alone since March because they’re too frightened to go and see family or a friend yet they’re physically healthy. Some people could really benefit from a cup of tea with a friend, it could save their life. I care about the people who walk around with utter fear in their eyes over a virus that other countries such as Sweden are overcoming. This virus is effecting people who don’t even have it, yet you lot on here think it’s ok to criticise people when so many are on their knees. Stop getting so personal with people you don’t actually know. stop projecting yourself anger because someone is asking a question.

For those of you who give people dirty looks who don’t wear masks or make comments to them, not everybody is faking it so don’t presume they are because you could be the person that breaks them, you could be the person that makes them even fearful to go out. So whilst you like to think you’re protecting the vulnerable, the way some of you are on here (and probably in person) you’re not protecting the mentally vulnerable.

@Aridane

charities are warning about the victims of domestic abuse What, that they might catch Covid and die or suffer long-term Long Covid disability? Or do you mean the need - long before Covid came along - for more funding and better resources? You know, because two women a week were dying before the pandemic.

Yes, amazing the number of posters who have now developed concerns where none existed before

Yes quite, where were all these allies when it was pointed out that universal credit changes would increase financial control etc?

They didn't give a shit then.

@JKRowlingIsMyQueen Are you saying the lives of The Elderly aka The Expendables (except for the tax they still pay) don't matter as much as anyone else's?

If that is indeed what you're saying then wouldn't you say it's kinder to offer them the Dignitas drugs? A painless and controlled death rather than Covid.

Perhaps we could also stop telling people to quit smoking because 'it shortens your life'. Additional smokers would hugely benefit the NHS seeing as they bring in billions in tax revenue but only cost it millions.

What's your view on the young healthy people who will die when unchecked Covid leads to full hospital beds and staff off ill?

And the young healthy people developing disabling Long Covid? Ten percent of patients is a sizeable proportion of the working age population.

How about the economy? I mean the long-term economy (not next week's). Is that not worth saving?

I supported the restrictions earlier this year

Magnanimous of you. And it is, of course, ALL about you!

I agree OP. It’s madness

Yay- thank,goodness we’ve got the OP and others n this thread to tell us that the whole world has suffered a Collective fit of madness and shut down their societies for shit and giggles and that the WHO,MCDC etc have just called it wrong

I wonder if Chris Whitty thinks how foolish he's been, how all those years of medical school and experience we're unnecessary, all he needed to do was go on Mumsnet to learn the truth about covid.

He probably just feels too embarrassed to back down now.

Even if it's not officially called lockdown, if it involves face masks, social distancing and a limit on the number of people you can see, then to me that's lockdown (aka not normal life!!)

Er, lock down is being locked down in your home with only very limited legal easons for leavIng the home.

Why are we in lockdown when no one is dying?

OP, do you wait till you are actually in the middle of a car crash before you put the seat belt on?

Nicely put

Fascinating how up to 40 deaths in a day translates to "No-one is dying". If we were having train crashes every day involving that sort of death rate there is no question that we would have stopped running trains.

Most people who have died its been because of comorbidities not linked to the virus. The same person would’ve died if they got seasonal flu/cold- it’s sad but it’s what happens when people are vulnerable.

This is simply not true. You only need to look at the intensive care data from ICNARC to see that or at the high number of excess deaths (and that was with suppression measures).

"As before, the vast majority of intensive care admissions were able to live without assistance in daily activities, prior to admission, and only a small minority (one in eight) were living with very severe comorbidities. "
mobile.twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1309959281437966339

Most people who died would not have died from a seasonal cold. Most people with comorbidities who died would still be alive if they had not got Covid-19.

[quote SheepandCow]@JKRowlingIsMyQueen Are you saying the lives of The Elderly aka The Expendables (except for the tax they still pay) don't matter as much as anyone else's?

If that is indeed what you're saying then wouldn't you say it's kinder to offer them the Dignitas drugs? A painless and controlled death rather than Covid.

Perhaps we could also stop telling people to quit smoking because 'it shortens your life'. Additional smokers would hugely benefit the NHS seeing as they bring in billions in tax revenue but only cost it millions.

What's your view on the young healthy people who will die when unchecked Covid leads to full hospital beds and staff off ill?

And the young healthy people developing disabling Long Covid? Ten percent of patients is a sizeable proportion of the working age population.

How about the economy? I mean the long-term economy (not next week's). Is that not worth saving?[/quote]
No, that is not what I am saying. Learn to read. Also it's the lockdowns that are going to ruin the economy long term. Don't say we didn't warn you.

@Staffy1

Get it over and done with, protect the vulnerable and let it rip. It's what most people want. It probably won't be as bad this time anyway.

The problem with letting it rip is people who need hospital treatment for it won't get it as the hospitals won't be able to cope. And how do you protect the vulnerable when it's totally out of control? They can't all stay inside and avoid everything 100% of the time. A lot of them will be in and out of hospital, so if it's rife they have a much higher chance of getting it. Besides which, all the hospital staff that died in the first wave can't have all been in the vulnerable group. Larger load of virus = more risk of death.

I think some people are desperate enough right now that they just won't see it as a problem when people point out that the "protect the vulnerable" part of that plan won't work. They're understandably more focused more on the "let it rip" part, because they think doing that will allow things to go back to normal, rescue jobs and businesses and so on, that it will all be fine because most people only get the disease mildly and so we really won't notice it spreading it that much and it won't cause severe problems.

I can understand why people really want that to be true. The trouble is the evidence from March is that they're wrong - that when cases get high enough and there's a lot of hospitalisation, the effects are pretty catastrophic - on normal (not just covid) healthcare, on businesses (people don't go out spending money in that situation, even if the rules allow it), on education - on everything really. Plus on top of that we now know that some people are ill for a particularly long time.

We don't really have a choice but to keep a lid on cases. Whatever we decide is an acceptable number of new cases, hospitalisations or deaths a day, we need them to stay stable at that level, not to be accelerating. Because of that, we need restrictions of some kind and will do for a while. But the lower we can keep cases, the fewer restrictions we'll need.