Is it really worth all this?

[Dustballs]

What are we shutting down for? What are we trying to save?

I don't understand what the purpose of this is anymore.

@RepeatSwan Yes, I have.

I didn’t say it was like flu (although technically they do share some symptoms - see chart here: 0-i2--prod-coventrytelegraph-net-0.cdn.ampproject.org/ii/w680/s/i2-prod.coventrytelegraph.net/incoming/article17996044.ece/ALTERNATES/s615b/0_252953535.jpg) I was making the point that if cases of flu (which also has risks of complications, hospitalisations and deaths) were reported to the same extent every year then people’s anxiety about it would also be high.

@Bilboard Actually some studies are showing that the herd immunity threshold could be much lower, that there may be some crossover immunity from other coronavirus and that there is already a large proportion of the population with immunity from mild/asymptomatic infection. We may be closer to it than we think right now.

Exactly @FromEden . A lot more of them seem to be speaking out too. Thankfully!

There were scientists who said smoking was not harmful
There are scientists who say climate change is not happening/ not human made
A scientist said the Mmr vaccine caused autism

So, when looking at scientific advice
What do the majority of scientists say, and how big is that majority
What do the minority scientists have to gain / lose . Some scientists will be driven by fame or money like other humans
What could be the effect is the majority/minority is wrong and we follow their advice

If we are close to herd immunity, we will soon see that the rates of infection drop without any behaviour changes. So it's easy to spot that happening and react when it happens

Oh the herd immunity hope never dies does it.

We only have 8% with antibodies, and the scientific consensus is natural antibodies won't last long anyway.

Herd immunity without a vaccine is surely pie in the sky.

Someone just posted this in the local paper comments

'I'm a Martian, looking through my telescope at you, looking at your species that has proliferated to the point of almost eight billion people, uber dominant over its environment & your species under absolutely no immediate threat whatsoever to the absolute detriment of many, many others.

So you've got this disease, that potentially could kill just ca. 1% of your species, mainly the old & weak, as you would typically expect disease to do. As it used to do.

1% of your global population is 78,000,000. Assuming everyone catches this thing. Which they won't, by the way. That's a big number of you no doubt.

That would only leave 7,772,000,000 of you left.

You are making your lives a comparative collective misery for the foreseeable future for such a minimalist threat to your collective existence? I think you Earthlings are off your fecking nut!'

Harsh, but fair?

I think you have a valid point OP.

Considering some places have 60% seroprevalence and we have 8%, I think it's pretty conclusive we're nowhere near herd immunity.

Also, I find the people who are most likely to think this is all an overreaction are the ones from places like Cornwall, which have never really seen the large numbers of cases. Those populations are even further away from herd immunity then the rest of the country. It should bring some kind of cognitive dissonance to be saying simultaneously "I don't even know anyone who tested positive" and "We could be nearer to herd immunity than we think" but there seem to be a good few people who are capable of holding both of those thoughts at the same time.

I'm not accusing every single person who holds one of those views of holding both, but I think there are a lot of people who hear an argument that supports what they want to hear and parrot it, then hear another argument that fits their agenda and parrot that, without ever considering if the two arguments are in any way compatible.

Whole year groups shutting down for me one mild case

But someone having a mild case doesn’t mean they will only pass on a mild case! 🙄

Lockdown 'may kill 75,000' - that's the OFFICIAL projection of the deadly toll of Covid restrictions including missed cancer diagnoses, cancelled operations and health impacts of a recession. The virus death toll? 42,000

Even if that were true (and you linked to the DM so..) how many more than the 42000 would die or have died without lockdown kr other measures in place, In parts of the world they were literally stacking up bodies. Our NHs was only just able to cope and look how awful it was back in March and April.

What do you think will happen if we go back to .normal’.?!

I am at the opposite end of the scale. We need to do more.

It's hardly surprising the biggest no-vaxxer known to MN since forever thinks herd immunity is just round the corner, is it?

@RepeatSwan
If natural antibodies aren’t providing long lasting protection then the vaccine may have the same problem. In any case, t-cell immunity is longer lasting. A new t-cell test has been developed and it has shown that people who previously tested positive for covid but who no longer have antibodies still have t-cell immunity.

@Nellodee I’m not from Cornwall and I do know a few people who have tested positive - all mild, a couple with no symptoms at all (had to be tested due to contact with positive case)

@Scarlettpixie If we go back to normal, case numbers will go up but there will not be the same fatalities. We were only testing the hospitalised cases back at the start - so only the really serious ones - and that gave us skewed fatality rates. For all those cases that were tested, there were thousands that weren’t.

If you knew back then that the fatality rate was going to be well below 1% would you still think a nationwide lockdown that delays cancer and other life saving treatment, closes down businesses, increases unemployment, domestic violence and suicide rates would you still have thought it was necessary and that we still weren’t doing enough?

Yes, because letting the entire population catch Covid would also delay cancer and other life saving treatment, close down businesses, increase unemployment rates, domestic violence and suicide rates plus lots more people have died or been left with serious health problems as a direct result of Covid.

Suicide rates are at an all time low since 2001 according to the ONS. For the lockdown period.

@bumbleymummy
How do you think the NHS and public services will manage winter with a proportion of its workforce ill? Services struggle every year without CV.

Only if the hospitalisation rates increase proportionally and, based on over a month’s worth of data, they are not.

@MummyPop00

Someone just posted this in the local paper comments

'I'm a Martian, looking through my telescope at you, looking at your species that has proliferated to the point of almost eight billion people, uber dominant over its environment & your species under absolutely no immediate threat whatsoever to the absolute detriment of many, many others.

So you've got this disease, that potentially could kill just ca. 1% of your species, mainly the old & weak, as you would typically expect disease to do. As it used to do.

1% of your global population is 78,000,000. Assuming everyone catches this thing. Which they won't, by the way. That's a big number of you no doubt.

That would only leave 7,772,000,000 of you left.

You are making your lives a comparative collective misery for the foreseeable future for such a minimalist threat to your collective existence? I think you Earthlings are off your fecking nut!'

Harsh, but fair?

Yeah, that's a good letter @MummyPop00. Collective madness only seen clearly from afar.

But isn't there often a lag between infections and hospitalisation?

I can't be bothered to engage with any letter that so casually refers to "the old and the weak" as if they are not worthy (or indeed are not part of the workforce holding services together).

@VirginiaWolverine

Yes, because letting the entire population catch Covid would also delay cancer and other life saving treatment, close down businesses, increase unemployment rates, domestic violence and suicide rates plus lots more people have died or been left with serious health problems as a direct result of Covid.

Not to mention that ‘cancer’ would be an underlying condition that would probably put you in the 1% or that giving people chemo while allowing a pandemic virus to run unchecked has some drawbacks as a policy.

Having chemo puts you in the at-risk category for many things but people still opt to have it. I’m not sure that denying/post-poning treatment because it will put them in an at-risk group makes much sense when the alternative is often dying from their cancer!

@Notonthestairs

But isn't there often a lag between infections and hospitalisation?

I can't be bothered to engage with any letter that so casually refers to "the old and the weak" as if they are not worthy (or indeed are not part of the workforce holding services together).

Quite. But the eugenicists are going to keep banging that drum.

@TheSeedsOfADream I guess people are still living in some kind of hope. The suicide rates will sky rocket when the shit really hits the fan in a few months, when recession hits, and millions are unemployed. Saint Boris won’t care because he’ll be out of office by then, no longer his problem, and he’ll probably be replaced by someone less jovial.

[quote wanderings]@TheSeedsOfADream I guess people are still living in some kind of hope. The suicide rates will sky rocket when the shit really hits the fan in a few months, when recession hits, and millions are unemployed. Saint Boris won’t care because he’ll be out of office by then, no longer his problem, and he’ll probably be replaced by someone less jovial.[/quote]
True.
The fact we all (and I'm just as guilty) call him Boris/Bojo whatever) illustrates what a good job he's done on us all. Bumbling yet ultimately kindly oaf. Probably the most dangerous misconception about any govt of recent times. The country has been treated as one big lab rat for 6 months by someone who would fail his General Science GCSE.

tornadoalley

Breathtakingly ignorant as to how many industries are decimated by this but hey, you're alright jack...

The suicide rates will sky rocket when the shit really hits the fan in a few months, when recession hits, and millions are unemployed

To be fair the nation is largely spectacularly unbothered by tens of thousands of deaths (of covid and other causes) in the space of a few short months so I don’t think death rates from other causes is going to particularly move anyone.

Recession is tricker, this is impacting globally and like 2008 is going to be unavoidable in the main. Chuck in the impact of leaving Europe and its going to be hard to unpick consequences of covid and consequences of brexit. The UK was always in for a bumpy 2021 onwards economically but covid has piled on further complications.