Do you think schools will close again?

[Beebityboo]

I'm disabled and considering removing my DC's from school in the near future. There are various reasons for this but obviously the number one thing I'm worried about is Covid. My DD was terribly unwell last year and I'm terrified to put her at risk again I also don't want to leave them without a mum. Numbers are rising, there is no testing and there are multiple children off in each of their classes. We also live close to an area that has absoloutely exploded in cases this week. I'm completely petrified.
After begging for flexibility and support from the school I've been told their hands are tied. Either send them in or deregister them altogether.
However I'm concerned I'll deregister, then the schools will close anyway and we'll have given up their places at a good school for no reason.
I'm massively struggling at the moment and just really need some advice. Every day I send them in I just feel sick to my stomach.
Please be gentle with me. I don't want schools to close, I just want some flexibility over the winter months.

I’m in an area on the watch list. We’ve got bubbles popping all the time.

Sorry, OP, I think it's very unlikely that they'll close, especially primary schools. I can see secondary schools moving to blended learning (2 weeks in, 2 weeks out) or even full-time home learning if things go really badly. The current system is terribly unfair as those in high transmission areas will be doing exactly the same exams as those where schools have minimal disruption.

The reluctance close is partially political, I'm sure, but also based on the well-being of families and the dependence of many on school for childcare.

Having said that, hospital admissions are now starting to go up again and if we can't get control of that then all bets are off. The imminent breakdown of the NHS is probably the only thing that would make a second national lockdown a politically reasonable choice.

I have lots of sympathy for your position. I have kids in secondary and primary schools and was shielded. I don't believe they are 'covid safe' but I do think that being in school is good for them, so for now, in they go and cross my fingers they don't catch it.

I don't think schools will close wholesale, but I don't think they are Covid safe either. My guess is that the government will have to put money into schools sooner or later to enable them to have smaller class sizes and better social distancing. Let's hope so, as they know that this virus is mainly spread in enclosed spaces indoors. I wouldn't deregister your children and risk losing places at good schools. Instead, I'd keep them off when you are especially anxious, but phone in each day saying they are sick. Odd fortnight's self-isolating will be allowed too. Try not to worry, as you won't be the only one doing this.

Current map of school cases.

1,847 schools in the UK infected with CV.
My sons school is closed, so yes some schools will close of course they will.
What do posters saying no think will happen when the teacher is off? The class will close regardless of how many students test negative. Once too many classes shut down then the school will have no option.

Couldn't your white blood count stuff be used to determine if you need to shield? Before the shielding letters were sent out, I was warned by my consultants to be careful because of my immune system. IIRC they also had some flexibility to add people they deemed at risk. I was extremely anxious as I have multiple issues including rare but in the end naturally made the list.

However, iirc correctly shielding only covers that person and any carer so your younger children would still be expected to go to school unless they were told to isolate because of symptoms or close contact with someone who has tested positive.

I think there is a strong possibility that in the next few weeks they will move to part time schooling for secondary. Maybe full time home learning for secondary.
I think it would take a lot before primaries are closed again on a national level.

Worldometer projections are showing a lockdown will be necessary in December when daily deaths reach 1400 per day. The red line is the projection without a lockdown and the purple line with one.

@prettygreenteacup

Posters on MN love to predict the schools closing and rant about schools are not safe. Of course they are not entirely safe, because nowhere in our society is at the moment!! For goodness sake. It's a balance between not damaging our children's futures and education, and the virus. Just like restaurants and other businesses need to stay open for people's livelihoods to survive! National closure would be a very last resort. It is tragic and heartbreaking to think of the effects it would have on some of our children, who do not get homeschooling and who are in abusive homes. School is a literal lifeline for some children. The only place they get a proper meal too. Why on earth would anyone campaign for all children in our nation to be missing out on school yet again. It's hard with the uncertainty but surely better for a small percentage of children to be out of school at a time rather than the entire country.

Absolutely no one has campaigned for them to completely close.

I’ve seen campaigns for sustainable r openings.

I’ve also seen campaigns for unsustainable unsafe opening as now which is causing thousands of children to miss school and cases to rise. They’re the ones campaigning for schools to end up closed.

I think schools will move to part time after half term, possibly sooner depending on whether the current doubling time of 7 days is sustained.

@TheEmojiFormerlyKnownAsPrince

Current map of school cases.

Is that just schools do you know, or does it include nurseries, FE, unis etc?

Also, do you have a clicky link.

Useful into - thanks.

Clicky link!
www.boycottunsafeschools.co.uk/reported-covid-19-cases/school-cases-after-12-8-20/?fbclid=IwAR0LD-QY0AutptKBoHQ_CdU3zj11yumk0U8gG-7LxtHJGgGO1ysuhftoeD0

But it’s not always up to date as it’s just one guy and he can’t keep up with it all. There will be more than on the clicky link. I don’t know about nurseries. I think it might be just schools

This is a good map from Imperial College
imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/

The area search map also gives local info

The emoji def more schools in our area if you include tgose who have sent year groups home.

Canigoout we shielded the whole family when we did as we have a small house, one loo and weren't going to socially distance from my child as they're too young.

@HelloMissus

I think schools will try to limp along as much and as long as possible. And yes some schools will insist parents deregulated rather than keep at home.

I think that's unlikely unless they are oversubscribed with a waiting list as less pupils means less money in the longer term, that can change quite soon depending when in the year the child leaves.

We’re in our 6th week of term, no popped bubbles in any of the three schools in our large village (two primaries and a secondary). One teacher absence so far at our primary, for three days while they awaited test results.
Similar story in all the schools in my area (so far). I know this could change any minute, but there are still plenty of schools which are doing fine. Which is why I don’t think a blanket nationwide closure should happen.
Of course some schools are going to close temporarily due to cases/teacher absences etc, but all of them? At the moment I don’t think so.
And that’s not just because I’m ‘wishful thinking’, I’m at home at the moment so it doesn’t matter hugely to me if they close or not.

The school I work at has been preparing for the inevitability of returning to online learning since the start of term. I think it's not a case of if, but when. Staffing issues will most likely be the impetus of a school shutdown --and the government will be quick to point blame at schools for not keeping their learning spaces Covid secure.

@weepingwillow22

Worldometer projections are showing a lockdown will be necessary in December when daily deaths reach 1400 per day. The red line is the projection without a lockdown and the purple line with one.

Why will it be necessary only when we have reached a total of 1400 deaths per day?

I might be silly, but why are we allowing a bunch of Tory toffs to tell us that the lives of up to1400 people per day are expendable? and why is it that they are not nervous about the demographic of those people? are they not nervous it could include economically very valuable workers? or key workers? or might it be that that figure of 1400 expendables includes those at greatest risk of catching Covid, and that all this clapping for key workers hides the fact that these poorly rewarded, poorly respected people, and Bame people, and poorer people, or those who are in the vulnerable groups are just simply expendable full stop? and why might that be?

@prettygreenteacup

Posters on MN love to predict the schools closing and rant about schools are not safe. Of course they are not entirely safe, because nowhere in our society is at the moment!! For goodness sake. It's a balance between not damaging our children's futures and education, and the virus. Just like restaurants and other businesses need to stay open for people's livelihoods to survive! National closure would be a very last resort. It is tragic and heartbreaking to think of the effects it would have on some of our children, who do not get homeschooling and who are in abusive homes. School is a literal lifeline for some children. The only place they get a proper meal too. Why on earth would anyone campaign for all children in our nation to be missing out on school yet again. It's hard with the uncertainty but surely better for a small percentage of children to be out of school at a time rather than the entire country.

All of this.

I also find it astonishing that there are posters on here actively wishing for schools to shut again, especially on a national basis. There have been nine positive cases in my local authority in the last week - NINE. There would be absolutely no justification for shutting schools around here.

They will close. They will cling on to the veneer of normality for as long as possible but the maths of the situation makes it inevitable.
We live on the edge of a lockdown area & I plan to pull my kids out before half term - with exponential growth, you can only be lucky for so long.
Sending you a hug, OP. It’s a horrible position to be in

So all of you who are convinced schools will shut - will you not be sending your kids back to school or let them socialise with anyone until there is either a vaccine or numbers are 0?

Genuine question

I didn't actively think that my sons school should have closed down.
But here we are a few weeks back.

All those who are vulnerable have been placed in a dire situation by the actions of the government. They are the ones who are closing down schools due to the guidance given to schools.

Once the plans were released a lot of people saw the flaw. You cannot put a group of 30 different people in a room for 6 hours a day and everything will be fine.

Yes they need education but they still aren't getting it.

Whilst the clowns were making deals with Oak Academy and the BBC they should have also looked at how families will access this and how schools would deliver on-line learning. Oops I forgot, they did a failed laptop into schools thing. Have schools that were still waiting back in July received them yet? Nope. Oh and the tutor catch-up scheme that comes with a massive flaw - schools have to also put in money they don't have.

Swimming, but not every area is the same. Manchester has something like 90 schools affected.

Yes of course they will

Every single school around me has cases, whole years of 150 plus out isolating. Lessons being given by teachers currently at home.

Its not if its when.

ours already is closed, as of today.
Staff outbreak, not enough staff to keep open. I am not aware of any kids testing positive. we are in an area with super high rates though. I work for the NHS and although I can do some of my work from home I feel like I'm letting the side down.