Do you think schools will close again?

[Beebityboo]

I'm disabled and considering removing my DC's from school in the near future. There are various reasons for this but obviously the number one thing I'm worried about is Covid. My DD was terribly unwell last year and I'm terrified to put her at risk again I also don't want to leave them without a mum. Numbers are rising, there is no testing and there are multiple children off in each of their classes. We also live close to an area that has absoloutely exploded in cases this week. I'm completely petrified.
After begging for flexibility and support from the school I've been told their hands are tied. Either send them in or deregister them altogether.
However I'm concerned I'll deregister, then the schools will close anyway and we'll have given up their places at a good school for no reason.
I'm massively struggling at the moment and just really need some advice. Every day I send them in I just feel sick to my stomach.
Please be gentle with me. I don't want schools to close, I just want some flexibility over the winter months.

I don’t think they will shut in the same way they did before, the government won’t want to be seen to order that. I think as we get into winter though we will see more and more partial and full closures caused by staff shortages and isolations so the effect will be similar, just with more uncertainty and confusion.

Not in the same way.

We may well see a short circuit break closure around half term for 2/3 weeks and then 50/50 in and online learning alongside partial and full closures in line with positive tests results.

Nothing that will help you Im afraid make the decision that you need to make

I totally understand how anxious you feel. I'm 37 weeks pregnant with multiple high risks including diabetes and conditions that risk stillbirth, and have a toddler in nursery in an increasingly high risk area. My husband as a severe asthmatic. So I totally get it. I've been worried about her and what would become of us all if me and her father both got it while so vulnerable.
But at the risk of sounding really harsh, there are multiple things that disadvantage a child in their life. One is of course losing a parent, which obviously would be terrible. Yet another is missing out on key years of education and socialisation. That's just to put your anxieties about one aspect of the pandemic in perspective.
It such a delicate balance at the moment of risk and benefit. Honestly your children are probably better off if they stay in school and you get some support with your anxiety. Cases are rising, but they are absolutely nowhere near where they were at the peak (untested but approx 100,000 new infections a day). Hospitals better understand how to treat covid patients. No clinicians are currently recommending shielding. It's over for even the most high risk people.
Hang in there OP. This year has been utterly shit. Do get some help with your mental health - that's the most important thing, both right now and in the future xx

I've seen your comments on several threads Beebityboo, and I haven't known how to respond. No one here can calculate your risk of catching Covid, or how it would effect you, or simply address your fears. i wish I could trot out a reassurance that you'll be just fine, but it's not my place to calculate the risk. And I'm assuming your anxiety is directly related to your condition coupled with the way schools are unsafe. What I can say is that I feel much the same anxiety, even without having personal risk factors in regards to existing health conditions. Because it can not be predicted who will catch it, and to what severity.

I think they will close, but maybe that is wishful thinking. Maybe they won't and all those who say they won't are clinging to the idea because they want schools open. Its usually those who want schools open who won't accept the reality that schools are fast becoming very risky places to be. The fact that 1700 plus schools have closures within just a few weeks reflects the fact that you have a very high risk of exposure in this environment. End, it can not be argued otherwise.

DS is taking his GCSEs this year. This is inconvenient in these circumstances. I want schools to close and I want an online curriculum. I am holding out because I can not derigester him now. If he were in year 10 I would have 100%

We are in an area close to local lockdown and my dh and several friends are teachers plus I have three kids at two different schools. There are no issues in any of these schools in terms of bubbles bursting or teacher / pupil absences. There was a difficult second week with back to school germs and a few more kids are off than normal but otherwise they're running as near as possible as normal
I think we are hearing more about areas and schools having issues but I don't think that is generally the picture
I think it's quite probable we may have a two week half term but can't see any more closure than that

OP you have made several threads about the same thing now, I'm not sure what you are expecting to hear that's different from the other threads. Im sure you commented a few days ago that you'd deregistered your child that day
You want flexibility without fines or made to deregister, the schools have told you that isnt an option, no amount of threads on here are going to change that. Sorry if it sounds harsh but you need to concentrate on the things you can do and control not keep obsessing (and it is obsessing) over something that isn't going to happen. Every single parent has their own thoughts on what we'd like to happen based on our own individual circumstances but we can't all get our own way unfortunately we've got to go with what's on offer to us or walk away from schooling altogether.

My eldest will probably be deregistered but her head is being supportive at the moment as she has Aspergers and is struggling. I'm talking about my younger DC's.
Yes I've posted a lot about this but the situation seems to change every day.

Mini the reason I think schools won’t close is nothing to do with my own needs or feelings - my own DC are adults and my foster children will be looked after whatever (and if I’m honest we could afford private Help for then if it comes to that).

No, the reason I think they’ll stay open is politics. The government would have to accept schools shutting was an abject policy failure.
And given that Scottish children have been back an extra month with no signs of NS giving way on her policy to keep schools open, how could Boris present a different course of action?

Hard to say really. I know it is a last resort for the government, but I'd say they are not ruling it out. I think they will try to keep going until October half term but announce an extended half term holiday. Of course that depends on how the spread of the virus keeps escalating. So many schools are already suffering.

I think it would be the last resort.
However, I'm wondering if those who say never live in high risk areas?

In Birmingham my two attend different secondaries. One lasted a week before his y10 were sent home. They now have multiple year groups out.
At his sibling's school they also have multiple year groups out.
Most schools around us have cases, with staff and students out. It's unsustainable.

Now if I lived in an area of low risk with hardly any cases then I might say "never". Each day is a bonus here, yet my relative in Devon, it doesn't factor into her plans that her child might get sent home.

There's major differences in the country. Inequality. This will cloud poster's answers.

Good luck OP.

@middleager

I think it would be the last resort. However, I'm wondering if those who say never live in high risk areas?

In Birmingham my two attend different secondaries. One lasted a week before his y10 were sent home. They now have multiple year groups out.
At his sibling's school they also have multiple year groups out.
Most schools around us have cases, with staff and students out. It's unsustainable.

Now if I lived in an area of low risk with hardly any cases then I might say "never". Each day is a bonus here, yet my relative in Devon, it doesn't factor into her plans that her child might get sent home.

There's major differences in the country. Inequality. This will cloud poster's answers.

Good luck OP.

I live in a high risk area. We have the signs allover and the messages on the radio. I still don't think they will close. Bubbles have closed in some schools in the area due to isolated cases. No outbreaks so far.

@HelloMissus

Mini the reason I think schools won’t close is nothing to do with my own needs or feelings - my own DC are adults and my foster children will be looked after whatever (and if I’m honest we could afford private Help for then if it comes to that).

No, the reason I think they’ll stay open is politics. The government would have to accept schools shutting was an abject policy failure.
And given that Scottish children have been back an extra month with no signs of NS giving way on her policy to keep schools open, how could Boris present a different course of action?

Yes I think you are right. They will step back from admitting that their policy of full school attendance is a failure. They won't admit that their rhetoric about making school Covid secure is nonsense. They will never admit their failure to fund, manage and implement measures that would have made schools safer. They will never admit that children are brilliant asymptomatic carriers and spread the virus, or that their failure to ensure teacher's the same legal employment rights to a safe working environment, and they will never admit their failures even as they trot out "schools to close" because the public are as inconsistent in their thinking as the government itself. As sure as parents demanded schools open, when panic sets in they will demand schools close.

I don’t think you should deregister. Phone in every morning saying they won’t be in due to your mental health and the pandemic. Say you won’t return them until it is safe to do so. But don’t deregister if you ever intend for them to return.

OP I think we will reach a point soon where schools will have to close again. It’s going to be a very long journey to get us to spring.

No, not on a national level. And they shouldn't. Most children are not badly affected and most parents are younger than 60. There are obviously exceptions but they are a fundamental structure of our communities. Apart from education, they provide a reason for parents to get up and out, they structure the week, they make work possible.
Covid has highlighted just how important schools and their staff are to a successful community.

The government have put too much time and effort into gaslighting parents to think schools are way safer than they are. They hope this will stop parents pulling children out like in March and instigating closure. They’re also too stubborn to back down and admit they’re not safe. I hope you’re ok.

If I was a betting person I would put money on them closing within the next four weeks.

I agree with many others that the current measures will do nothing to slow the R rate down, and until it is a proper ‘lock down’ most won’t be taking it seriously enough to change their behaviour.

I am in a locked down area, yet our cases are rising and people are shrugging it off generally as ‘if it’s safe for dc to be in schools then there no need to worry yet’, (I don’t personally agree but it’s what I’m seeing/hearing).

Op, absence for covid symptoms isn’t being penalised is it?

Could your dc have ‘symptoms’? The day you can’t get a test, or pretend the results of a test you didn’t take haven’t come back yet.

That will buy you two weeks.

Your dc could always have d&v and then some kore COVID symptoms to get you through the next two.

Honestly, I truly believe that in around 4 weeks you won’t have to worry anymore.

People were incredulous that it would happen last time too.

I’m thinking there may come a point when they say if you want to take your child out and they can learn at home using Oak or school stuff then you can.

1/4 of cases in education. If the above option happened l think quite a lot would do so. This would make classes smaller and safer. However if numbers rise in schools they may have to shut them.

Remember the government have paid Oak Academy for a year

I think closures will be of individual schools due to unsafe staffing levels. I think schools will limp on for as long as they can but ultimately many will close in areas where Covid is high. This is why I wish the government would sort GCSEs out now as it’s not going to be a level playing field. I do think secondaries will go on to blended learning at some point if infections rise (2 weeks in school and 2 weeks home learning ) but not primaries due to childcare issues and the ability to keep bubbles apart more than secondaries.

Blanket school closures would be a very last resort and I think Boris will blame the general public for not following rules and school staff for not distancing enough if this has to happen rather than look at the real causes.

And l read somewhere that Boris was threatening to close schools if people didn’t comply.....

And we know he works like this by drip feeding

I hate being dishonest and the school will know I'm lying but I don't feel as though I am being left with any choice. Schools in my area are having cases every day. Nobody can tell me whether I'll survive or not because the data for my condition just isn't there. Thank you all for being nice and putting up with my increasingly desperate threads, I just live quite an isolated life right now and literally have no one to talk to except DH.

No schools will only close due to lack of staff. We have been told we will only ever partially close as we did through lockdown so will always provide care for the vulnerable.

Posters on MN love to predict the schools closing and rant about schools are not safe. Of course they are not entirely safe, because nowhere in our society is at the moment!! For goodness sake. It's a balance between not damaging our children's futures and education, and the virus. Just like restaurants and other businesses need to stay open for people's livelihoods to survive!
National closure would be a very last resort. It is tragic and heartbreaking to think of the effects it would have on some of our children, who do not get homeschooling and who are in abusive homes. School is a literal lifeline for some children. The only place they get a proper meal too. Why on earth would anyone campaign for all children in our nation to be missing out on school yet again. It's hard with the uncertainty but surely better for a small percentage of children to be out of school at a time rather than the entire country.

And the large increase in positive cases in 10-19 year olds are all taking place in education.

Tbh l don’t think they’ll have a choice tbh🤷🏼‍♀️

@Beebityboo these are for you 💐
I don’t like the uncertainty of the current situation. There are many people who think the same as you and there will always be people in these boards to offer support. Take care of yourself.