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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

970 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 22/09/2020 22:46

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

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OP posts:
Thread gallery
82
herecomesthsun · 23/09/2020 16:13

It's only to be expected that numbers at this level, given the previous numbers and difficulty getting tests. It's great that the numbers of tests have gone up. It would be really interesting to know the percentage of positives.

Shitfuckoh · 23/09/2020 16:14

That does not really say 6178 cases today does it?! Shock

sleepwhenidie · 23/09/2020 16:17

@Shitfuckoh

That does not really say 6178 cases today does it?! Shock
It would appear so Sad
Beebityboo · 23/09/2020 16:18

West Midlands 907 cases Shock. Where I also happen to live Sad

EmMac7 · 23/09/2020 16:18

Worth putting in context, remember they believe there were circa 100K cases a day back in April. It’s still rising uncomfortably fast, though.

GardenSanctuary · 23/09/2020 16:18

But in March there were probably 100 000+ cases a day. Just keep that in mind

SistemaAddict · 23/09/2020 16:21
  1. Fuck.
BlessedBeTheFruitCake · 23/09/2020 16:21

Crikey Sad won't be long before restrictions are increased at this rate.

Shitfuckoh · 23/09/2020 16:22

I just didn't expect them to be that high.
I'm aware numbers were higher in March, doesn't mean that numbers now aren't worrying now they're rising.

Keepdistance · 23/09/2020 16:22

I just worked out about 17% of our la cases would be schools if they were all in 1 week. Obviously they may be over the last 2+ weeks but still that is very high and only cases i know of... And i would expect a few more from the people isolating because of the cases. And family members.

MarshaBradyo · 23/09/2020 16:25

@GardenSanctuary

But in March there were probably 100 000+ cases a day. Just keep that in mind
Yes I think worth noting. If we had daily announcements of that number this would seem very low in comparison.
Perihelion · 23/09/2020 16:26

A lot of Scottish universities are back now.

Layladylay234 · 23/09/2020 16:27

@cathyandclare

6178 cases, 37 deaths. Testing numbers better today, well over 200k again. Admissions going up by significantly more than the numbers in hospital, this reflects what a local hospital ( in an area with high case numbers) medical director reported that currently people are coming in, recovering and being discharged in a way that they didn't see in March/April.
Hi,can you link me to the doctor who said that. Also,how do I find out admission numbers?
herecomesthsun · 23/09/2020 16:29

From Prof Tim Spector. %positive tests per day (by percentage of people invited to take a covid test).

"Our survey of 1000 daily Covid swab tests since May shows that the recent increases in cases is real and not just due to increased testing as some believe. Cases doubling every week. Keep using the Covid symptom study app"

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20
cathyandclare · 23/09/2020 16:32

Not really, sorry, it's someone I know personally ( I'm an ex-medic). I know that kind of anecdata is not in the spirit of the thread. Of course I could be making it up, but I'm not. In March he was very honest about when things were a nightmare.

The admission numbers are here coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare. I always search under England because they update their figures more frequently than the other nations, so the overall figures can be delayed.

herecomesthsun · 23/09/2020 16:33

@Layladylay234 there are a lot of helpful links in the first post at the start of these threads. Try the first link.

(trying to avoid reduplication).

itsgettingweird · 23/09/2020 16:36

Haven't caught up yet but today's cases Shock

Massive rise of over 2k

My town still only had 1. So far 10 this week so dropped from the 15-18 we had a few weeks ago and remaining static at 10/12 a week 🤞

BigBeanBag · 23/09/2020 16:38

I totally understand we can’t compare number of positive tests now with for eg March but can we compare daily death numbers, it seems like we now have approx same amount of deaths as 17th March www.england.nhs.uk/2020/04/total-number-of-covid-19-deaths-in-england-by-date-of-death/
Incidentally this was the day before they announced schools would all close on the following Friday

littleowl1 · 23/09/2020 16:44

Quick analysis of councils on the watchlist -

Attached are the cases per 100K for each council in England currently on the government's watchlist - note that cases per 100K is not the only driver of watchlist status - latest cases per 100k for all councils in England is published here: www.covidmessenger.com/coronavirusliveupdate/

The data is up to an including Sept 17 as this is the most recent date for which reliable council level data is available.
For those not already familiar, there are three different "levels" on the government watchlist:

Area of Intervention: Areas where additional restrictions and interventions are deemed necessary to reduce the prevalence of the virus. This is the highest risk category, requiring the most support.

Area of Enhanced Support: Areas at risk of intervention where additional support and resources are being provided to help control the spread of the virus e.g. epidemiological expertise, additional mobile testing capacity etc.

Area of Concern: Areas with high rates of new infection where extra precautions are likely e.g. additional testing in care homes, engagement with high risk groups etc.

Usually an area joins the watchlist at the lowest level, as an "area of concern" and depending how the local outbreak progresses, either upgrades or downgrades in status over time.

But last week saw a number of councils added to the highest risk tier - an Area of Intervention - from not being on the watchlist at all the previous week.

The councils were:
Oadby and Wigston
Warrington
Halton
Wolverhampton
South Ribble
Chorley
North Tyneside
West Lancashire
County Durham
Wyre
Fylde
Northumberland
Lancaster
Ribble Valley

If you look at the daily and weekly cases in many of these areas over the latter part of August and early September it is a surprise (to me anyway) that they were not on the watchlist already.
In better news, its also great to see that a number of councils were removed from the watchlist (all had been "Areas of Concern" the prior week):
Great Yarmouth
Norwich
Swindon
Breckland
South Norfolk
King's Lynn and West Norfolk
Broadland
North Norfolk
(Randomly, I had also prepared a table of cases per 100K for councils in Greater London for a colleague which I have attached here in case anyone is interested in that also. The same for every council in England is published daily here: www.covidmessenger.com/coronavirusliveupdate/)
__
At Covid Messenger, we compile the latest number of lab-confirmed, positive coronavirus cases across the country into a bitesize email every day – one for each district council in the UK – and deliver it straight to your inbox.
If you would like to receive a daily update for your council you can sign up at www.covidmessenger.com

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20
MRex · 23/09/2020 16:44

@Layladylay234 - this has even more detailed info if you want it than the main dashboard: www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/.

(@BigChocFrenzy, should it go on the next links? I think it came up in the last thread, but wasn't picked up as a key resource.)

herecomesthsun · 23/09/2020 16:45

@BigBeanBag

Put that way, it is more worrying than looking at the 6k cases,

sirfredfredgeorge · 23/09/2020 16:51

I totally understand we can’t compare number of positive tests now with for eg March but can we compare daily death numbers

No, not really, since daily deaths are a proportion of the total number of people infected over the previous few weeks, which is highly impacted by the doubling rate - if cases are doubling every week now, compared to every 2-3 days then, then forecasting days ahead needs to take that in to account.

Quarantino · 23/09/2020 16:54

I'm finding it hard to keep up with these threads, and wanted to post this on the last one yesterday, but by the time I'd read through to see if it'd been posted, the new thread has started, so apols if discussed already.

What I'm interested in is what caused the second uptick in cases seemingly at a uniform time in nearly every UK LA?
Sparked by this thread: twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1308390716633165824

There is a very useful heatmap which you might have to download from github (link on tweet) to examine properly but the gist is what it looks like.
The colours for each LA row are normalised so show proportional to that LA's max value. Any analysis welcome!

MRex · 23/09/2020 16:55

By the way, in case anyone is interested, here are stats on all other hospital care. Down 41% on last year already, 59.4% if you only look at elective. app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNGU0Y2Q0MjQtZTBmMi00MDRiLTljODAtY2YxOWY4YzFjNTgyIiwidCI6IjUwZjYwNzFmLWJiZmUtNDAxYS04ODAzLTY3Mzc0OGU2MjllMiIsImMiOjh9.

(It comes from here, but to save miles of scrolling: digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/hospital-episode-statistics-for-admitted-patient-care-outpatient-and-accident-and-emergency-data/april-2020---july-2020).

Eyewhisker · 23/09/2020 16:58

Challenge trials of coronavirus vaccine will begin in January.

www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/irish-company-to-test-vaccines-on-volunteers-deliberately-infected-with-covid-19-1.4362506?mode=amp

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