Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

@sirfredfredgeorge - I think it’s a bit of a leap from one anonymous source comment from a single journalist (atm) to claim that the CMO and CSO were ‘politicking’ and to infer their motives in giving that press conference.

@Cornettoninja

I came across this on another site and thought it might be of interest to some of you. It’s not peer reviewed but interesting nevertheless.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.16.20194787v1

Here we show that the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Manaus, located in the Brazilian Amazon, increased quickly during March and April and declined more slowly from May to September. In June, one month following the epidemic peak, 44% of the population was seropositive for SARS-CoV-2, equating to a cumulative incidence of 52%, after correcting for the false-negative rate of the antibody test. The seroprevalence fell in July and August due to antibody waning. After correcting for this, we estimate a final epidemic size of 66%

I posted this on last thread

486 positive tests reported today for Scotland, the highest number in a single day.
7.6 % of newly tested positive
Main driver of the increase seems to students returning to university, with several outbreaks in accommodation and due to parties.

But you've got a few places on there which currently have a small number of cases but are scoring very highly for covid triage. Why? You have to ask the question about what is going on in those places and whether they are likely candidate for new spikes appearing on the case data
Hull stands out to me. I know it well and their published cases are low and (according to Littleowl's emails) falling, yet current triages are relatively high.
I don't know what Current Triages means. Perhaps it's the demand for tests. Certainly I know they have sent whole year groups home from some schools so this could feed demand for tests.

I found an interesting site, for people who want the latest Local Authority info/ reports for a particular area, links include current cases status, population vulnerabilities etc. It's called the Local Authority Containment Dashboard: www.local.gov.uk/our-support/coronavirus-information-councils/covid-19-service-information/covid-19-test-trace-and.
Care homes is interesting, it specifies deaths for each local authority.
Then there's these scatter graphs of cases against population etc: lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-cases-and-area-characteristics.

Loads more, I'm still scrolling through it all.

Oh I so agree about the over messaging muddling the message. it is like Cummings blurts out a slogan or Boris invents one and the ALL get through.

For example, at the end of the summer, to reassure teachers, a separate 4 (?) tier system was introduced by the DfE for schools with actions dependent on alert level, both local and national. I have never heard it mentioned since. The alert level has been so stripped of words that no one knows where school actions go on any one level.

It's an unholy mess.

Messaging has been so frustrating. That face pace mace or whatever thing, back in the summer was woeful. The colouring of it looked like a bubble gum wrapper, it was all the wrong way around. Is it even a thing any more? No idea.

@ohthegoats
My DCs primary school class were 'learning' about that last week, amongst other things.
Yes, the Hands, Face, space thing is still a 'thing'
Makes me shudder & no idea why!

Thank you

@Perihelion

486 positive tests reported today for Scotland, the highest number in a single day. 7.6 % of newly tested positive Main driver of the increase seems to students returning to university, with several outbreaks in accommodation and due to parties.

Seems early for Uni (unless they go back earlier in Scotland).

Thanks for the new thread and the continued thoughts- will try and have some of my own later!

BigChocFrenzy

imo, in such a serious crisis, BJ should have aimed for genuine cross-party discussion and agreement
to get the widest public support and trust, as well as more views than just his own party

In effect a cross-party coalition on Covid only, not on any other topic.

This is 100% correct, however, you can understand why he did not do this. www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.spectator.co.uk/article/labour-frontbencher-covid-is-a-political-opportunity/amp

Seems early for Uni

Looks like the Freshers week at the University of Glasgow ran from Sep 12 to 18. Some other universities might follow similar timelines. Assuming 5-7 days for virus incubation / display of symptoms and 2-3 days for testing (Scotland has got shorter turnaround times than the rest of the UK), we can expect to start seeing first cases now. The bad news is there will be more positives coming - the question is whether T&T can track and contain the spread.

I know people might be skeptical of T&T but the local authorities seem to be relatively efficient at tracking "complex" cases. I assume outbreaks at universities would fall into this category.

USA hospitals row over how virus spreads and hence type of PPE:

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/23/us-hospitals-coronavirus-battle-cdc

Frontline healthcare workers are locked in a heated dispute with many infection control specialists and hospital administrators over how the novel coronavirus is spread – and therefore, what level of protective gear is appropriate.

At issue is the degree to which the virus is airborne – capable of spreading through tiny particles lingering in the air – or primarily transmitted through large, faster-falling droplets from, say, a sneeze or cough.

This wonky, seemingly semantic debate has a real-world impact on what sort of protective measures healthcare companies need to take to protect patients and their workers.

Apologies for butting in, but can't find overall UK numbers for today..... have the England and Wales stats come out yet or is it a bit late?

It is still a bit early. UK wide numbers usually get published between 4 and 4.30pm.

Liverpool data:

Published 17th
Data extracted covering testing up to 14 September 2020 show that the total number of confirmed cases for the last 7 days is 537, an increase of 201 cases on the previous week. The latest weekly rate of COVID-19 in Liverpool is 107.8 per 100,000 population and the latest positivity testing rate* is 7.6%.

Published 22nd
Data extracted covering testing up to 19 September 2020 show that the total number of confirmed cases for the last 7 days is 815, an increase of 291 cases on the previous week. The latest weekly rate of Covid-19 in Liverpool is 163.6 per 100,000 population and the latest positivity testing rate* is 9.9%.

Published 23rd (today)
Data extracted covering testing up to 20th September 2020 show that the total number of confirmed cases for the last 7 days is 845, an increase of 277 cases on the previous week. The latest weekly rate of Covid-19 in Liverpool is 169.7 per 100,000 population and the latest positivity testing rate* is 10.9%.

Source
liverpool.gov.uk/covidcases

on the one hand it looks like the increase in the rate of cases is slowing, but this should be taken with a pinch of salt since that positivity rate is now hitting over 10%...

Friday's PHE report is going to make for interesting reading...

Thank you - wasn't entirely sure of the usual time and am keeping up with it all a bit more attentively at the moment - shall keep me eyes peeled :)

Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister, said the coronavirus rate in Wales was now 46.8 / 100,000 people and there was a “clear upward curve”.

Bloody hell. Over 6000 cases

eek mine says 4926 but that sounds suspiciously like yesterdays number

6178 😬

6178 cases, 37 deaths.
Testing numbers better today, well over 200k again.
Admissions going up by significantly more than the numbers in hospital, this reflects what a local hospital ( in an area with high case numbers) medical director reported that currently people are coming in, recovering and being discharged in a way that they didn't see in March/April.

Is it possible to know what it is comparable to in past date?

Any graph shows a low peak for testing in March almost the same as now. But we would have been missing a lot then, as well as a fair few now.

Ah shows a peak in March (not low no idea why that’s there)

Basically how much were we missing back then compared with now