Week on week London cases down by around 800 this week. Why then is Sadiq Khan on LBC threatening to go it alone?

[Treesofwood]

Just that really. London cases down, from 2300 ish to 1600 ish. But yet Sadiq Khan wants to put further restrictions on Londoners. Does he know these figures? Why otherwise would he say this?

2335 to 1669 are the exact figures, so closer to 700. Apologies.

I highly doubt he knows the most recent figures.

The cases in London ballooned between August 24 and September 7. We have hit 450 positives on September 7 (based on the specimen date). I also thought the virus was completely getting out of control.

However, it does look like the numbers might now be going down. The trend of positive cases looks positive ('ish). Hospital admissions seem to have stabilised at around 30. We had a spike up to 41 on Sep 18 (which was concerning) but Sep 19 is back to 32.

It is still very early to say that London is fine (it may not be and we may see another spike) but it does not look like Sadiq Khan is close to the actual details. He would not have said that we are a few days behind the North otherwise.

Don't you think he should make it his business to know the numbers? He said he would be astonished if he wasn't invited to Cobra tomorrow. I'd be astonished if he was.

I was surprised he was asking for measures as tough as the ones in lockdown as he believes it’s 2-3 days behind however the numbers are around 24 in the boroughs. Against 190 in Bolton. I guess because everything London implies (movement of people and the city for the companies) he’s worried that it’ll get soon bad.

I’d be surprised if he’s invited!

I think it's certain boroughs in London. It's reported that 20 boroughs (out of 32 I think) now have higher rates than other areas of England that have already had restrictions placed back upon them. I don't think it's practical to just have 2/10s of boroughs with restrictions and the other 1/10 without restrictions. So numbers may be decreasing in certain boroughs, but data showing numbers are definitely increasing significantly in others.

Not many people being able to access tests around North London for the past fortnight so we don't really know the scale of infections. Apparently Ally Pally only has 60 tests a day at the moment and it covers a massive area- Lea Valley doesn't seem to have many either. This will have an influence on positive known cases in the community.

Because tests are rationed and people reporting symptoms in London are rising.

The test figures are a big underestimate I fear.

At least he cares about Londoners. Johnson doesn't give a shit.

Hospital admissions are an objective measure that does not depend on the number of people testing. They are not going up (at least for now).

Sorry - pressed "post" too quickly.

The hospital admissions did go up significantly to reflect the rise of cases between August 24 and September 7. They have now plateaued. This seems to indicate that the rapid increase of positive cases might have already stopped.

Theres a massive fuck up with the tests in London and they know there are lots of people with symptoms yet to get a test. The % of positive cases of the tests that are being done has jumped up. Also track and trace is counting the contacts of positive cases. What a mess.

Sadiq Khan is looking out for his city. He's up against it.

There appears to be an agenda from somewhere to deny and downplay how bad things are and will get in London. Not quite sure why but it's dangerous whatever the motive.

It looks like the truth is finally seeping out. It was reported today how London's hospital cases including ICU were increasing.

Cases initially looked artificially low because of the bizarre decision to report by individual borough. It's been confirmed that any lockdown will be city-wide (not individual borough). Because it's a very interlinked city.

Theres a massive fuck up with the tests in London and they know there are lots of people with symptoms yet to get a test.

I am not sure it is still the case although my experience is, of course, only anecdotal.

All the parents in my DD's school and all my colleagues who needed tests for their children last week now managed to get themselves tested.

The thread on MN with tips on how to get a test has also lost popularity.

@wintertravel1980

Theres a massive fuck up with the tests in London and they know there are lots of people with symptoms yet to get a test.

I am not sure it is still the case although my experience is, of course, only anecdotal.

All the parents in my DD's school and all my colleagues who needed tests for their children last week now managed to get themselves tested.

The thread on MN with tips on how to get a test has also lost popularity.

But if they've waited a week that is really bad. What about the people who have needed a test since - presumably waiting?

@wintertravel1980

Theres a massive fuck up with the tests in London and they know there are lots of people with symptoms yet to get a test.

I am not sure it is still the case although my experience is, of course, only anecdotal.

All the parents in my DD's school and all my colleagues who needed tests for their children last week now managed to get themselves tested.

The thread on MN with tips on how to get a test has also lost popularity.

The mums at school and the posters on here are probably the most proactive in jumping through hoops to get a test. There'll be plenty others who try once and then don't bother and also then don't isolate.

Mrshoho What do you mean counting the contacts of positive cases? Does that include tear group bubbles of 300? Or something else? Sorry not sure what you mean.

Sheepandcow so now people are denying the decrease in cases. Is there not the possibility that actually a lot of people have a level of immunity as they were heavily exposed to it February thought to beginning of April?

Thought it was only about 16% with antibodies in London?

@Treesofwood

Sheepandcow so now people are denying the decrease in cases. Is there not the possibility that actually a lot of people have a level of immunity as they were heavily exposed to it February thought to beginning of April?

I'm trying to find the article I read earlier. It reported on the increase in London's hospital cases including ICU. Can't remember which paper it was. Will post if I find it.

Testing is a shambles in the UK (unlike most other countries). No test = no official case. Look to the hospital figures for a better idea of how things are going.

Sadiq Khan was referring to the hospital increases. He's not talking about the need for restricting just for a bit of fun. He doesn't want to shut the city down. If he's asking for restricting, it's for good reason.

Even if 17% have immunity (and it looks like immunity might not last more than a few months), that's still millions of unprotected Londoners, many elderly and disabled.

Barely anyone in London has been able to get a test for the last fortnight... I looked and looked over the space of five days and was offered only one test (which was outside the M25; it was gone before I was able to accept it). That's why the numbers have gone down, not up! The numbers of new cases only relates to the number of tests available.

I'm trying to find the article I read earlier. It reported on the increase in London's hospital cases including ICU.

There is absolutely now doubt that the hospital admissions spiked earlier this month. Here is the official source:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nhsregion&areaName=London

However, the numbers over the past 5 days have been stable which might indicate that the growth has now stalled.

It is disappointing that Sadiq Khan seems to be quoting data that is 2 weeks out of date. He looks too far removed from the details for someone in his role (in fact, this brings him close to Boris).

I just posted on another thread and I'll do it here too.

I make a prediction. I was right that London would be hit hardest during the first wave. We'll find out in the coming months whether this time I'm wrong.

I predict London will be hit harder than anywhere else. Again.

No tests = no cases.
Let's keep an eye on the hospital admissions over the next couple of weeks.

From what I understood, Sadiq was referring to recent data. Time will tell, but if cases are increasing in London (balance of probability says yes) it's morally wrong to deny the millions of vulnerable Londoners the protection of restrictions, which of course are designed to prevent the spread getting further out of control.

@wintertravel1980
I'm being a bit thick. Can you explain the figures in that link? All I can see is today's hospital figures. Not sure where to find the data to compare to two weeks ago?

In my london borough cases are falling.
Plus in my london trust hospital admissions have plateaued.
We also have about 24% antibodies in our 10000 staff , tested in june so that will help slow spread too.
I think sadiq is working in information that is a week or two old but trying to pretend he isn't.
Not sure why he doesn't have latest info though.

@Treesofwood

Mrshoho What do you mean counting the contacts of positive cases? Does that include tear group bubbles of 300? Or something else? Sorry not sure what you mean.

sorry I meant to say they are not reaching enough of the contacts. In the boroughs where the contact rate is low we are now seeing increases in positive cases.

www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-test-and-trace-failings-victims-not-contacted-a4542576.html

Cases are falling in your borough? Not surprised. No tests = no official cases.

Why isn't there talk of individual borough lockdowns? It's because any London lockdown will be city-wide, it being so interlinked.

This is from today's mail. I know some will moan about the source so I'll keep trying to find the article I read earlier (it was either the BBC, the Standard, or the Independent).

Covid infection rates in 20 London boroughs are higher than areas of England already hit by restrictions as Sadiq Khan met council leaders to demand a new lockdown and rush hour traffic dropped five per cent;