Week on week London cases down by around 800 this week. Why then is Sadiq Khan on LBC threatening to go it alone?

[Treesofwood]

Just that really. London cases down, from 2300 ish to 1600 ish. But yet Sadiq Khan wants to put further restrictions on Londoners. Does he know these figures? Why otherwise would he say this?

Sadiq Khan has foresight and common sense when it comes to Covid.

He knows the choice is either:

a) Don't implement London (or national) restrictions. Then express horror and surprise in two to three weeks time when there are 'suddenly' loads and loads of cases and things are wildly out of control.

Or

b) Do something now. Preventative action to halt and contain the spread.

www.guardian-series.co.uk/news/18737376.people-urged-stay-safe-london-coronavirus-cases-rise/

Their info is from Public Health England's figures. It's also on PHE London's Twitter.

Still, I very much doubt any meaningful action will be taken. Even if more people (government included) finally acknowledge London's cases are rising fast. Any lockdown is pointless whilst the borders stay open, with no restrictions or proper quarantine.

@SheepandCow

Hi - if you follow the link and scroll a bit down, you will see the graph of daily hospital admissions for London starting from March 22.

If you then press on the "data" heading, you can see the table that looks more user friendly.

The latest number for Sep 19 is 32.

Hospital admissions usually lag symptoms by approximately 7 days. The spike in cases between Aug 24 and Sep 7 led to the jump in the numbers from Sep 2 to Sep 14. The growth has then stopped and the numbers now appear more stable.

Covid infection rates in 20 London boroughs are higher than areas of England already hit by restrictions as Sadiq Khan met council leaders to demand a new lockdown and rush hour traffic dropped five per cent.

Yes, this is the headline but again it is important to look at the underlying data. Sadiq does not seem to have done that.

The point of comparison used by the journalists is Ribble Valley (18.3 cases per 100,000 population). Ribble Valley on its own would have never made it onto the lockdown list - it is only there because of its proximity to other major hotspots.

The 2 boroughs with the highest cases per the latest NHS surveillance report in London are Redbridge (34.2 / 100,000) and Hounslow (32.5 / 100,000). These levels are still well below the informal 50/100,000 threshold used for local lockdowns. FWIW, Redbridge is definitely a problem and there may be a few community outbreaks going on but the issue should first be handled at the local (borough) level.

The problem is very few decision makers (whether it is Boris or Sadiq Khan) seem to be close to the details and able to review and analyse the numbers. It is frustrating to hear statements that have very little relationship to reality.

Again, I am not saying London is not a problem. It might be - it is too early to draw conclusions. However, it is definitely wrong to say that it is "a few days behind the North". This is simply not true.

Thanks for explaining @wintertravel1980
I've never been good with graphs!

We shall see what happens. I've made my prediction. I'd like to be wrong (not that I want anywhere else to be hit badly).

My choice would be caution. What Sadiq wants in London - preventative action - for the whole country. But I'm not in charge. Time will tell whether Sadiq and I have the right idea.

The issue is with London
Is they are reporting per borough ( our borough is higher than national average ) this week seems to have declined but so has testing as no one can seem to get one yet our hospital had a to make a covid ward again.
Things here just spread if get out of control we were a badly hit borough at the beginning it went chaotic fast here.

London boroughs can't be handled at local borough level because London is so very interconnected. The government has acknowledged this.

One tube or bus stop, or a couple of minutes walk, takes you into another borough. Perhaps your local shops are in a different borough, your child's school, your workplace (I'm talking about non office workers, who can't WFH). Sometimes the end of your street turns into another borough. Your neighbours several doors down can be in a different borough. It's impossible to isolate the boroughs in this situation. Coronavirus certainly won't know invisible borders.

The sheer numbers of people living in London (hundreds of thousands in overcrowded homes) and the fact of it being a major travel hub, national as well as international, means any rise in cases is incredibly worrying and has potential to very quickly get out of control. More people means more spread. A quick and easy spread.

A densely populated city is a virus's wet dream.

London boroughs can't be handled at local borough level because London is so very interconnected. The government has acknowledged this.

It actually depends on the type of outbreak.

A couple of months ago Hackney had an outbreak among Tesco staff. It was identified in a timely manner by the council and most infected individuals were tested and traced. The transmissions went down, the outbreak was contained.

Looking at the postcode map, Redbridge situation appears very similar to Hackney. The cases are concentrated in one area which seems to indicate there might be a local source (e.g. a hospital, workplace, school, etc).

In my borough there were a couple of outbreaks in GP surgeries (back in June) that were also handled locally.

Boris is only interested in saving the likes of Pret from the skids, Sadiq is spot on, the offices opening, and the tube and main line trains being packed to the rafters is asking for trouble - remember what Witty said earlier, it's not just about you, it's you and your family and everyone you come into any kind of contact with.

Sadiq is spot on

He is not really spot on because he does not seem to know (or understand?) the data he is referring to. I am not sure he would know the answer to the basic question - what is the latest level of COVID hospital admissions reported in London?

The aim does not justify the means. Leaders have got to use intellectually honest and factual arguments to justify their views.

The cynic in me wonders whether Sadiq is making a lot of noise to cover up the shambles he made of traffic in London. There’s lots of anger in his own borough among local people and businesses.

I’ve loathed all the London Mayors now.

FWIW, the only leader who is indeed "spot on" on the development of the pandemic is Angela Merkel. It is not a surprise that Germany has been handling COVID so much better than other Western countries.

Hospital admissions tend to follow a raise in cases, it doesn't happen simultanously. Waiting for hospital admissions to be high in order to take action is closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Action needs to be taken when numbers are growing exponentially on a regular basis, in Redbridge's case it's weekly, and hopefully before the admission numbers are very high. That's how hospitals become overwhelmed.

@QueenBlueberries

Hospital admissions tend to follow a raise in cases, it doesn't happen simultanously. Waiting for hospital admissions to be high in order to take action is closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Action needs to be taken when numbers are growing exponentially on a regular basis, in Redbridge's case it's weekly, and hopefully before the admission numbers are very high. That's how hospitals become overwhelmed.

This.

@wintertravel1980
I'm definitely with you on Merkel, although I think Italy seems to be handling it well now. Perhaps unlike us they've learned from their first wave.

Oh how I'd love to have a healthcare system like the German one!

@iamusuallybeingunreasonable.
Anti-semitic and anti-German.
What a charmer.

You can't be anti Semitic and a Jew (which I am), how ridiculous, totally taken that the wrong way

You can get tests in my london borough. Friends (and our headteacher) have both been tested and received results (negative) in the last 3 days

You can get tests in Redbridge, you just have to be very patient, have a laptop (somehow you stand more chance with a laptop rather than on a phone, I don't know why). Facebook groups and whatsapp parent groups are full of people exchanging tips on how to get an appointment, what time they are released, which postcode to use, etc. It's very hard to get an appointment, but not impossible.

@Treesofwood

Don't you think he should make it his business to know the numbers? He said he would be astonished if he wasn't invited to Cobra tomorrow. I'd be astonished if he was.

he has a VERY high opinion of himself.

He's a twat.

@SheepandCow

London boroughs can't be handled at local borough level because London is so very interconnected. The government has acknowledged this.

One tube or bus stop, or a couple of minutes walk, takes you into another borough. Perhaps your local shops are in a different borough, your child's school, your workplace (I'm talking about non office workers, who can't WFH). Sometimes the end of your street turns into another borough. Your neighbours several doors down can be in a different borough. It's impossible to isolate the boroughs in this situation. Coronavirus certainly won't know invisible borders.

The sheer numbers of people living in London (hundreds of thousands in overcrowded homes) and the fact of it being a major travel hub, national as well as international, means any rise in cases is incredibly worrying and has potential to very quickly get out of control. More people means more spread. A quick and easy spread.

A densely populated city is a virus's wet dream.

I don't think this is true at all. Central London boroughs maybe but not out in zone 5/ 6. You could spend your whole life in my borough and never leave it and many do! plus kids tend to go to school out of London if they don't go to school in the borough itself. You are generalizing and don't seem to know london v well. Do you work for sadiq? I doubt he has ever been to my borough and would have no clue how big it is. What sort of London wide lockdown would you like to see?

You can also get tests in mu borough

Well I assume I know London well @sashagabadon seeing as I was born and bred there, my family too.

You'd better tell the government they're wrong. It's they who've confirmed any London lockdown will be city-wide because, to quote their spokesperson, it's a very interlinked city.

Your circle of friends might never leave your outer borough but vast numbers of people do everyday. Including many doctors and nurses and teachers (like my friends) who can't afford to live close to the central London hospitals and schools they work in.

My cousin went to school in central London. Travelled in on the the tube from zone 5.

Your experience is not typical.

Oh and as it happens I didn't vote for Sadiq. Don't work for him either.

It's clear now what will happen. It's March all over again. People with some kind of agenda insisting it's not that bad in London. Until it's so obviously worse than everywhere else no-one could try to deny it. Then it will be a shrug of shoulders and a well it course it was going to be bad in a densely populated city. Deja vu.