Week on week London cases down by around 800 this week. Why then is Sadiq Khan on LBC threatening to go it alone?

[Treesofwood]

Just that really. London cases down, from 2300 ish to 1600 ish. But yet Sadiq Khan wants to put further restrictions on Londoners. Does he know these figures? Why otherwise would he say this?

it was a very interlinked city - I think it probably has a different make up now with the wfh. I live adajcent to the lowest rate london borough and I would say anyone who isnt a keyworker is working from home.

Strangely though if it went into lockdown around 50% of people I know would be in lockdown the other 50% would not be (both my childrens schools are right on the borders).

Sadiq Khan is trying to make some political moves both personally and on a party basis.

I know certainly in Bromley, currently officially a lower rate borough (without tests, who knows?) loads of people aren't (able to) WFH. Friends (doctor and a teacher) live there. Their neighbours include a painter and decorator, social worker, plumber, and teaching assistant.
All have been working outside of the home throughout the pandemic. So have the delivery drivers, shop, bar, and restaurant staff, postal workers, pharmacists, bus drivers, train drivers, taxi drivers. Loads of non office based workers live in London.

@SheepandCow

Well I assume I know London well *@sashagabadon* seeing as I was born and bred there, my family too.

You'd better tell the government they're wrong. It's they who've confirmed any London lockdown will be city-wide because, to quote their spokesperson, it's a very interlinked city.

Your circle of friends might never leave your outer borough but vast numbers of people do everyday. Including many doctors and nurses and teachers (like my friends) who can't afford to live close to the central London hospitals and schools they work in.

My cousin went to school in central London. Travelled in on the the tube from zone 5.

Your experience is not typical.

Oh and as it happens I didn't vote for Sadiq. Don't work for him either.

It's clear now what will happen. It's March all over again. People with some kind of agenda insisting it's not that bad in London. Until it's so obviously worse than everywhere else no-one could try to deny it. Then it will be a shrug of shoulders and a well it course it was going to be bad in a densely populated city. Deja vu.

Your experience is not typical either. You give the impression london boroughs are tiny and a short walk or one tube stop and you will go from one to the other. That is simply not true especially in the outer london boroughs. I agree a small number od children travel into London for schooling but the over whelming majority do not. Do you know any school children? Nhs workers do travel but again many do work close by, indeed many hospital trusts in london have onsite accommodation or access to local keyworker accommodation that does not require some massive trek through many boroughs to get to work.

Now I don't believe you live in London. You might've years ago. You're years out of date with hospital accomodation for a start. Most of that was been sold off years ago! I remember when the nurses accommodation block by the Royal Free was converted to flats and a M&S. Saw it all being built.

No idea why you think I suggested boroughs were tiny. What I did point out is that for many people their local facilities will be in another borough. My Bromley friends, for example, live two streets away from Lewisham.

As for children not travelling through boroughs to get to school. It must be you who doesn't know many schoolchildren. Its not about travelling from outer boroughs to central London. Perhaps that's a minority. My cousin went to a private school. But loads of kids get the bus through several boroughs to get to their school (state or private).

Regardless of what you want to believe, the government agrees with me. They've said that any London restrictions will be city-wide. Go speak to them if you think you know better.

I think there are two main reasons for Khan’s stance - and my money would be on both being true:

a) genuine concern for the well-being of Londoners. It’s one of the most densely populated cities on the planet, with both wealth and deprivation cheek by jowl, and the whole city interlinked. Keeping the rates low benefits the people and it benefits the economy, and waiting until a drastic rise is too late

b) he’s getting ahead of the blame-storming

Although actual numbers are still low and the rise was from a very low base, in terms of percentage rise in the past week hospital admissions in London have risen by more than anywhere else in England.
mobile.twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1308434173494001666

I agree with Sheepandcowin that the boroughs are interlinked. I'm in Harrow but my school is under a different borough. Staff and pupils live across several boroughs and also out into Hertfordshire. My children's friends travel in to Harrow from Brent. A lot of my friends and neighbour's children commute into central London for school. When I travel to work I cross Harrow, Herts and Hillingdon. Our major hospital is on the border of Brent and Harrow. You get Brent as the place of birth of you are born there but it is actually in Harrow.

But under that logic so are the outer home counties. As I have said I live on the Surrey/London Borders - the lines are drawn rather quirkly but some will be in lockdown some wont. And he cant put us into Lockdown because he has no powers.

So why put the lower London Boroughs under lockdown too soon

It has happened in Birmingham and other cities etc. Some part of streets under lockdown some not

Although actual numbers are still low and the rise was from a very low base, in terms of percentage rise in the past week hospital admissions in London have risen by more than anywhere else in England.

John Actuary is looking at month on month comparisons and using the week ending August 26 as a starting point.

It is clear and non-controversial that London went through a period of exponential growth between August 24 and Sep 7. This has resulted in rapidly increasing hospital admissions between Aug 31 and September 14.

The topic of debate is what has been happening since then. The hospital admissions over past few (five) days seemed to have plateaued or, in the worst case, might be increasing slowly. For now there is no evidence that the very rapid exponential growth from the beginning of the month is still continuing.

Hospital admission typically lag about a fortnight from when it was caught (incubation of about a week and then about a week for symptoms escalate to needing hospital). So the figures to 14/09 reflect a period before schools went back.

If they plateau’d for the week after that, this is a good thing. Though of course quite a lot of schools were only partially back that first week. Cases transmitted in that first ‘full’ week of term (7th Sept) would just begin to be showing up now