So. Predictions for tomorrow? Boris's speech.

[BabyLlamaZen]

I'm pretty sure we're going to get told we can't see any other households for 2 weeks and a curfew on pubs.

Although a part of me thinks they'll just say no to seeing any other households and leave it at that with no limit. I'm hoping they'll keep the support bubbles though.

I think they were brought out to explain the facts and figures as clearly as possible without a buffoon blustering next to them. Make everyone think about what might happen if we don’t do something. Let that sink in and then come out with the revised rules. What I would really like if we could have someone explain the rules as clearly as they explained the figures. The rule book needs rewriting completely and we start again with a new set of rules so everyone can understand them.

@Staffy1 I agree with you. My DS is also at special school. I think the teachers there (in normal times) are angels. The government has treated them like shit in their closing down schools policy... ie they won't close even if secondaries do. I'm a secondary teacher and think that secondaries should go to rotas/remote learning and that parents should be allowed to take pupils out if they want. We are in a pandemic fgs...

whyyyy havnt they sorted the ventilation? that's ridiculous. schools were all geared up in summer to do blended learning (at least our local was) then BJ changed it to "all kids back" and ruined it. other countries are doing outdoor classrooms, single desks etc and we just have some one-way systems and fingers crossed

Big fan of Chris & sir Patrick. But as soon as I knew it wasn't Boris, I knew there wouldn't be a meaningful announcement.

Chris Whitty and Patrick Valance, I think are there to inform us of the severity of the situation, but they arent in control of making the restrictions.
I wish they were - they are much better at delivering clear information.
I wonder if it was a 2 stage event as Boris will probably waffle on about closing pubs 10 minutes early and not mixing households if your surname is in the first half of the alphabet, work from home on days starting with t and other ineffectual methods which might contradict what todays scientific advisors were hinting at.....but they hope we will have all forgotten how bad it was by 6pm tomorrow!

Because windows are on limiters (of no more than 10 centimeters due to H and S), many don't even open more than 5cms... if at all..

@MarshaBradyo

I can see why you’d be worried. But why do all schools need to close, can you not take him out?

Do you know if I can do this without him losing his school place? Apart from this, I don't see how the Covid can be kept under control with schools all operating as almost normal.

@monkeytennis97 it would have taken some investment to let them open up more and get window guards I guess and they cba

@MintyMabel

If they don’t close pubs and restaurants, they are just fooling us in to thinking they are doing something

Well, they'd bloody well better not close the hospitality industry again. There is only so much unemployment anyone can reasonably deal with. Not to all the other people who depend on the hospitality industry. And musicians, actors, and anyone else who makes our lives that bit better (I am entirely reliant on hospitality to pay my bills, FWIW, but I am apoplectic about the effect on culture, which is arguably the most important thing we have - though not to this bunch of Philistines).

@monkeytennis97, I know, apart from the extra risk to children, it's not fair on the staff, who I agree are angels. They really haven't given much thought to special schools at all.

@Friendsoftheearth

Whatever is announced tomorrow, even if it starts as just for two weeks, I think it is extremely unlikely it will stay just for two weeks!! What would be the point as soon as you restart, the virus will resurge.

For what it is worth this is what I think, and I am usually an optimist, but we are in this for six months now, but only six months because the vaccine will be ready by then, and the virus will naturally die back as the weather holds up. I felt disinclined to post this, because I don't want to add to the panic or stress, but I think we need to get used to a winter in hibernation, we need to prepare for that fully and if we can, for the sake of our children and mental health - we need to try and embrace it.

Whitty did not come out with the six month time frame on a whim, this is has been carefully considered, and I am taking him at his word.

The summer is over, and now we need to get very real with the prospect of a very quite winter.

I for one think it is a more natural state, nature lives in cycles. Winter has always been a time to recharge and rest, and so maybe this year we will be following the seasons more than an any other time in our lives. We need to look for solutions, we are in this for a while longer yet.

I quite like this perspective, but take pp’s point that it is much easier to hibernate in comfortable accommodation...

Still, hibernation is a comforting thought, kind of. Just wish I’d done a bit more (safe) socialising before the 2nd lockdown arrived

[quote stovetopespresso]@monkeytennis97 it would have taken some investment to let them open up more and get window guards I guess and they cba[/quote]
Money... no money.... schools have already shelled out for COVID stuff from their regular budgets. I'm bringing my own PPE into work, bringing a door stop to keep doors open and begging other staff to open their windows and doors.

@random9876

I agree with FriendsoftheEarth. Realistically, we’ll have to shut up shop, especially such the testing is completely dysfunctional. Feel very very sorry for businesses that will need to close though.

But it doesn't work! I know so many people who have already lost work and more who know that they are going to, if serious restrictions come back. They are anxious and depressed and demoralised. It's no good saying "oh, well we have to shut up shop and in six months things will be different" to them.

And I don't even really see how "it will recede in the spring" works, as this year would suggest otherwise. Yes, it was a novel virus - but there are still going to be a good 70% people who haven't had it bt spring 2021, going on current rates.

....and don’t forget, many uni students haven’t yet been thrown into this equation.....ok so they maybe in ‘corridor’ or ‘course’ bubbles but they’ll still be out doing mini shops in the local corner shop where school kids nip in for snacks, elderly folk have a gentle walk out for milk or paper, etc. Uni students only have minimal storage spaces so will do regular twice a week shops sometimes. Not always to supermarkets. Just a thought.
Prediction for tomorrow: I don’t expect much.....pub curfew and no mixing of households inside (and maybe gardens?) but I don’t think that’s anywhere near enough. If that’s is the plan, it’ll be reviewed in two weeks then ramped up. Break us in gentle.

Surely October half term would be way too late if we listen to the potential numbers that were being quoted by the scientists.

I still don't see how it would work either though. It slows down for two weeks and then, like we've seen over the summer, numbers grow again.

I predict you'll all get what we have had in Greater Manchester for weeks - no mixing households indoors or outdoors.

'Waffle waffle

Do this thing but not if this other thing happens but don't do this thing unless you are exempt from the other thing unless you have to do the thing but do the thing unless you can avoid the thing

Three part slogan

Blame the young/old/students/feckless for the virus situation worsening

Waffle waffle

Praise for the governments handling of the situation including some misrepresenting of stats around testing

Three part slogan

Vaguely churchillian war like reference to defeating the virus through community spirit

Three part slogan'

Agreed!

I think we need to have a 2 week circuit break including schools now, ideally pubs and restaurants closed too (or if not 10pm curfew), people encouraged to WFH where they can, and no household mixing for 2 weeks (apart from support bubbles).

When we start up again, tier 2 for education (that's secondaries on blended learning), continue with 10pm curfew, rule of 6 and see how it goes from there.

I would hope that would give them chance to get cases much lower and also expand the test and trace system which is inadequate for current needs.

I really think they need to do something about schools. There's been 5 confirmed cases in DS's school already, and who knows how many more that haven't been able to get tests. It can't be a coincidence that cases have ballooned just as schools have gone back. They need to remove the threat of fines for parents that don't feel safe sending their kids, introduce temperature checks, and visors for teachers in all schools. Masks and blended learning going forward for secondary kids.

They'll need to put their hand in their pockets and extend furlough if they need businesses to close temporarily (or if parents need time off to look after kids). And support people properly who need to self isolate (£500 for those working and on universal credit won't cut it).

wasn't there something about excluding childcare by families even if there is no mixing of households enforced in an area? (I am sure I read that in the Guardian or the Independent today)

I cant imagine what he will say but I'm sure his friends will benefit.
He is a disgrace.
From awarding dodgy PPE contracts (that ended up in us paying £800 for each paper suit) to his mates brand new company.
To the unfit for purpose Track and Trace system (again awarded to his arse lickers).
Not to mention granting permission for shooting parties (which he no doubt enjoyed on his "camping" holiday in Scotland).
And as for awarding pay rises to pretty much all public service employees except nurses...... an average staff nurse has seen their pay rise by just over £2000 in the last 10 years.
Or maybe he will apologise for the A Level fiasco that has left my friends son still unsure of whether he has uni accommodation and he starts next week.
Maybe he has sorted Bexit?

@Jourdain11
that is exactly my worry. I'm lucky, got a house and a garden and none of the walls are covered in mould but I work with women and families some in dreadful housing conditions (unfortunately not rare). Their kids absolutely need to be in school. Their jobs most likely to be precarious.

Meanwhile grouse shooting is permitted.

Pay out to meet out.

Spend and Defend.

Don't kill gran, buy her a pint.

Shop but try not to drop.

Whatever happens, it won't be clear, it won't make sense and it probably won't make much difference

[quote Ihatemyseleffordoingthis]@Jourdain11
that is exactly my worry. I'm lucky, got a house and a garden and none of the walls are covered in mould but I work with women and families some in dreadful housing conditions (unfortunately not rare). Their kids absolutely need to be in school. Their jobs most likely to be precarious.

Meanwhile grouse shooting is permitted.[/quote]
I work in a specific area of mental health. The first lockdown was so damaging for the patients we work with, I cannot emphasise that enough. Now we have individuals who declined so much, physically and mentally, only just starting to make steps forward - and it could all start again. Seriously, I can't even begin to say how sad it makes me. And then people come over all preachy (and I'm sorry, but it is) and say, "oh yes, but it is for the greater good" and "it's the natural order of things and you need to embrace it". Well, I'm sorry, but I won't. I never will. It's not right and nobody is going to change my mind, not ever.

If its no mixing of households I can abide by that. My 17 year old though is just starting to enjoy her new 6th form and Saturdays out with friends after being so respectful off every rule. Always wears a mask, washed her hands. She'll be so set back. I hope it's curfews and only 2 households mixing for her sake