Is this new spike down to holiday makers?

[Fredocorleone]

Do you think that opening up international travel Across the whole of Europe will be the thing that everyone regrets when it comes to looking back at this in 10-20 years time when we have the benefit of hindsight?

I was reading this earlier about how Bolton’s spike has been traced to a twat who went on a pub crawl when he should have been isolating - <a class="break-all" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-54205353?intlink_from_url=www.bbc.co.uk/news/coronavirus&link_location=live-reporting-story" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-54205353?intlink_from_url=www.bbc.co.uk/news/coronavirus&link_location=live-reporting-story

I’m sure I also read on here the other day that Iceland saw an increase traced to two French holiday makers Who should have been isolating and wasn’t that also the case for the resurgence in New Zealand as well? I just wonder whether we’ll really regret encouraging people to travel whilst paying lip service to quarantining upon return.

I completely understand that some people needed to see loved ones and/or needed a holiday and many people booked pre-Covid. I just wonder whether travel was allowed far too soon across the whole of Europe? Clearly there are some issues because countries like NZ and Iceland who are so reliant on tourism can’t stay closed forever so I genuinely don’t know what the answer is.

I expect it's a combination of factors but mainly because people totally relaxed over the summer. Doubt it can be blamed solely on international travel.

Pub goers not social-distancing?
Beach goers not social-distancing?
People mixing with too many others?
People testing positive but being asymptomatic or only mildly affected not self-isolating?

My view is:

We came out of lockdown two weeks early
We opened up quite a lot before schools/work
The general message was very 'wahey!'

I can't really understand the mindset of people that insisted on an international holiday during a global pandemic tbh.

If its a fault of holiday goers it will be equally proportionate to those who have holidayed here and abroad. That's if it even is a repercussion of people holidaying at all.
Is an empty airport , and half capacity flight to a destination with much lower infection rates with less tourists than normal any worse than a train ride to a seaside town with already high infection rates on packed beaches and crammed arcades, or busy campsites with reduced wash facilities meaning more people sharing less toilets?

Holiday
Then straight into non SD schools.
It does sound like lots didnt quarantine after returning. And of course many didnt have to.

No, this second rise in cases was inevitable unless we stayed locked down until a vaccine.

I mean yes, people like the bloke who went on a pub crawl whilst he was supposed to be quarantining and then developed symptoms 2 days later are certainly going to have helped things along, but ultimately this is unavoidable really isn't it?

We havent seemed to infect devon and Cornwall though no idea how?
Flights maybe an issue. But also some destinations maybe with lots of english people then sharing apartments with other households.
Thereve been zante in bristol and wales flights infected.
Bristol boy infected in coatia then collected his alevels
As above bolton
There was one in plymouth too was there?

Pub crawls here seem an issue. I would be saying 1 pub per day?

Bolton,s rise isn't just down to that guy , a live in Bolton people are still not getting it ,I have just been out taking my dog for a walk people are still socialising outside ,not wearing masks properly in supermarket,s etc ,so yeah he didn't help but we can't blame it all on him

I live in Bolton*

It was with schools going back like this. Independent sage said schools would raise r by 0.5 i think.
The mitigation in place seems to have done nothing. Predictable when there were quite a lot of cases even in jun and jul in schools. (With 15 or less per class).

Is it because as more schools have returned, more dc are getting tested, more families, who don’t need to get tested, are getting tested and therefore more asymptomatic people, who wouldn’t have known otherwise, are testing positive?

Plus, isn’t there that, 1% of false positive results filtering through? Which doesn’t sound much but when you’re testing hundreds of thousands, then that result will have an impact? Then again, how many false negatives are there, plus people who have symptoms but can’t get a test?!

It’s a bit of a mess isn’t it!

No but he did break the guidance

@Keepdistance

We havent seemed to infect devon and Cornwall though no idea how? Flights maybe an issue. But also some destinations maybe with lots of english people then sharing apartments with other households. Thereve been zante in bristol and wales flights infected. Bristol boy infected in coatia then collected his alevels As above bolton There was one in plymouth too was there?

Pub crawls here seem an issue. I would be saying 1 pub per day?

We only know publicly about the infections coming from flights from zante and such places because its been very easy to track and trace those people. Im sure theres been equally as many spreads from holiday destinations over here thats been less publicised or harder to track and trace

I think it’s alcohol.

Yesterday went for lunch; was a bit unsure as waiter kept chatting and getting super close etc, by glass 4 of vino I was happily chatting away back!! I think alcohol makes you forget about social distancing.

They are just headline cases of spread doesnt mean they are the only cases of spread of infection

@Fredocorleone - which bit of a pub crawl makes you think sitting in an aeroplane is to blame for spreading coronavirus around the man’s home town? He could have caught covid in the Lake District or at work and then spread it on a pub crawl. It was the pub crawl that was the bad idea - and no doubt the fact he behaved in the same selfish, rule-breaking fashion overseas and absolutely everywhere else he went. He didn’t leave a virus-free UK for a virus-infested overseas destination and then bring back a novel virus with him, ffs, he brought back a virus he had every bit as much chance of catching or spreading in the pub at home, which is exactly what he did.

I think partly holidays and partly families and friends getting together inside with no social distancing. Haven't they said all along that socialising with family and friends in homes is one of the surest ways of spreading it?

Probably pubs as well - drunken people not likely to be social-distancing!

Tbh, as much as people like to deride the eat out to help out scheme, as long as people and restaurants were adhering to the regulations, I can't see that as a big spreader.

Thats not true though!
He was supposed to be quarantined after travel.

Rates in devon and Cornwall are still very low considering.

@Keepdistance

Thats not true though! He was supposed to be quarantined after travel.

Rates in devon and Cornwall are still very low considering.

I doubt 1 man not quarantining is the sole reason for a second spike!

Might have helped if the schools had been given more firm guidance like say parents to wear masks and oh say money?

It is spiking locally because people have been socialising elsewhere (abroad and UK) and then socialising locally. Same behaviour here as it was before but had nothing to spread until recently because there were zero cases in the community.

I can see it’s a combination of factors but surely schools returning —> more people back at work is the main factor?

If cases are highest in age groups between 20-45 (I think this is right) then they are the people with kids in schools, particularly those pesky asymptomatic primary age kids. Then they go to work.

We’re 3 weeks after schools went back, it seems fairly obvious to me.

The high incidence areas in the maps I've seen don't seem particularly likely to correlate with it being down to holiday makers.

People throughout Europe were cooped up in their homes - to varying degrees - for months. Then, they were allowed to interact with varying degrees of freedom for a few months.

Of course the virus was going to spread in these circumstances. Everyone knew this. It's silly to look around for one single cause, however comforting some may find it.