Is this new spike down to holiday makers?

[Fredocorleone]

Do you think that opening up international travel Across the whole of Europe will be the thing that everyone regrets when it comes to looking back at this in 10-20 years time when we have the benefit of hindsight?

I was reading this earlier about how Bolton’s spike has been traced to a twat who went on a pub crawl when he should have been isolating - <a class="break-all" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-54205353?intlink_from_url=www.bbc.co.uk/news/coronavirus&link_location=live-reporting-story" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-54205353?intlink_from_url=www.bbc.co.uk/news/coronavirus&link_location=live-reporting-story

I’m sure I also read on here the other day that Iceland saw an increase traced to two French holiday makers Who should have been isolating and wasn’t that also the case for the resurgence in New Zealand as well? I just wonder whether we’ll really regret encouraging people to travel whilst paying lip service to quarantining upon return.

I completely understand that some people needed to see loved ones and/or needed a holiday and many people booked pre-Covid. I just wonder whether travel was allowed far too soon across the whole of Europe? Clearly there are some issues because countries like NZ and Iceland who are so reliant on tourism can’t stay closed forever so I genuinely don’t know what the answer is.

It’s spreading because people are near each other again. Some environments are worse than others but it will spread whenever there is social contact. It’s believed that socialising in the home is actually the best way to spread the virus.

Here the picked up elsewhere in the UK cases seem to be people going away to cities for a drinking session.

I don’t think anyone was ‘encouraged’ to travel abroad.

I blame the idiots packing themselves onto the beach like sardines and the people who haven’t followed the guidance.

@ErinBrockovich

I don’t think anyone was ‘encouraged’ to travel abroad.

I blame the idiots packing themselves onto the beach like sardines and the people who haven’t followed the guidance.

The government have let the country down then, by not ensuring this didn't affect the rest of us.

Relaxed rules: teens mingling, then attending a mass family barbecue.

People crowding in pubs and bars, yes it’s happened, then mixing in family homes.
Offices starting back,

As soon as people start to behave like normal people again, the virus spreads. It is not the fault of ‘selfish people’ who go on holiday, but because we have an endemic, airborne virus.

I agree, travel has a lot to do with the current spike in cases... anything beyond local is a huge risk factor.

Case study is North Alsace in France... with Strasbourg & the European Parliament in it's centre... there is a huge rise in cases & local lockdown. The area was "fine" until the parliament re opened and people from lots of different areas started flooding in.

No coincidence- travel is the culprit!

Maybe a little but I think it’s many things. Lots aren’t bothering with SD anymore, play dates and teens socialising with no distance, alcohol, larger than allowed gatherings, those that wont wear masks because they don’t want to and then schools going back.

Devon and Cornwall were insistent we would overwhelm their small ITU capacity.

We didn’t, I don’t think.

In which case, I wonder if the next steps are to implement what they did in Ireland and France - perhaps stay within a certain distance if your home to avoid it spreading across the country and try and contain it to local areas where they can put the focus on track and trace.

I also have a suspicion that the removal of one-in-one-out Policy in supermarkets will have impacted. I always sanitise my hands now, it’s part of my routine but the amount of people who don’t anymore, or get too close to you because they feel safe wearing a mask is scary! I went to The Range today, the cursory bottle of hand gel was completely empty so it’s all just lip service now, whereas just a few months ago, my FIL tried to go to The Range and they asked him what he needed. When he said blinds, they wouldn’t let him in because it wasn’t an essential item! To me, that should be one of the first things to bring back because it doesn’t stop the economy, it doesn’t cost a huge amount and it means people prevent the spread, even if just by a little bit

Today 17:35 KrakowDawn

I can't really understand the mindset of people that insisted on an international holiday during a global pandemic tbh.

Ditto! I think it finally cemented my view on the ‘great’ British public

Going abroad on holiday just seems like madness to me. Sitting in a plane with loads of others...all these people saying 'we need a holiday...' 🙄

We've got a week in a caravan booked for end of September and hoping that we can still go but who knows now.

Plus, I agree about shops and supermarkets. The rules seemed to disappear pretty quickly.

@Ylvamoon - what precautions did they take when the re-opened the European Parliament? It’s an obviously risky workplace, given the number of EU countries with very high rates of coronavirus atm. Were they testing and quarantining everyone, or were they granting testing exemptions for MEPs, etc, etc? I’ll bet my bottom dollar a lot of the people working there are on quarantine exemption lists.

@Eyewhisker

As soon as people start to behave like normal people again, the virus spreads. It is not the fault of ‘selfish people’ who go on holiday, but because we have an endemic, airborne virus.

Yep.

People here are very eager to blame it all on specific activities - invariably ones they themslves don't participate in, of course - and/or on 'idiots' or 'teens' not followin the roolz. And while all of the above do play a role, when you're dealing with a highly contagious virus which had been temporarily suppressed due to enforced isolation, it's obvious it's going to spread again once some form of normality is restored. It's happened pretty uniformly across most of Europe, so it's not as simple as pinning it all on 'idiot holidaymakers' or teens 'flouting' the guidelines.

@IcedPurple you wrote exactly my thoughts

@EmmaWithTheGreatHair you can only get a false negative. You can't get a false positive.

The new spike is due to the UK’s population deciding to break the rules.

All started when Cummings decided to do the same and got away with it IMHO

@RaspberrySkies you can get a false positive.

[quote RaspberrySkies]@EmmaWithTheGreatHair you can only get a false negative. You can't get a false positive. [/quote]
That's not correct.

Because test and trace is crap...

I'd be interested in knowing how long it took for the super spreader to get a test, get the results and then trace get in touch with everyone to isolate. I'd bet more than 4 days... which given the average incubation time is 5 days - any contacts he infected would be contagious (and therefore infecting others) before they knew.

I suspect a lot of the increase is caused by delays in the test and trace system pushing up the R rate.

The Bolton Superspreader shouldn't have been permitted to leave the house in the first place. He returned from a hot zone and should've gone directly into quarantine.

The UK is far too lax on quarantine. Like other countries, if you return from a hot zone country you should be obliged to stay in a quarantine location as the Wuhan returners did for 14 days.

This government has pussy footed around for too long. They said don't gather, and gave the police insufficient and contradictory powers to break up gathering groups.

You can flummox test and trace by leaving your phone at home whilst you go out, evidenced by a group of young 20's I know that went to the bloody pub when they should've been in quarantine.

So, here we are 9 months after this fucker escaped from the lab where we have the folk that have been hiding under the bed since March. We have the folk that, because of intelligent considerations and civic duty diligently try to keep up with the unenforceable guidance. Then you have the rest that can't measure 1.5m, don't believe they're the risk and do what the fuck they like because they know they won't get stopped.

People here are very eager to blame it all on specific activities - invariably ones they themslves don't participate in, of course - and/or on 'idiots' or 'teens' not followin the roolz. And while all of the above do play a role, when you're dealing with a highly contagious virus which had been temporarily suppressed due to enforced isolation, it's obvious it's going to spread again once some form of normality is restored. It's happened pretty uniformly across most of Europe, so it's not as simple as pinning it all on 'idiot holidaymakers' or teens 'flouting' the guidelines.

This. Can we just copy and paste it to post on every single bloody 'do you think it's schools/holidaysmakers/pub goers/joggers/dog walkers/people sitting on a bench eating a packet of Crisps that has caused cases to rise again' threads that are currently popping up everywhere?!

@Keepdistance

We havent seemed to infect devon and Cornwall though no idea how? Flights maybe an issue. But also some destinations maybe with lots of english people then sharing apartments with other households. Thereve been zante in bristol and wales flights infected. Bristol boy infected in coatia then collected his alevels As above bolton There was one in plymouth too was there?

Pub crawls here seem an issue. I would be saying 1 pub per day?

I think possibly because many people travel to U.K. destinations in family groups in confined transport. Less chance of transmission than via an airport and plane and then shared coach etc.

Plus staycations tend to be in gaming units too. Tents and caravans etc as opposed to hotels with communal areas and plenty of touch points.

This is purely speculation as no data available.

But I think there are very obvious differences which may have had an impact.

It's a combination of everything at once I think.
The movement of people for holidays - both international and this country.
The bars and restaurants being reopened.
The poor weather in August and people meeting indoors.
Then the schools going back.

Given the reaction of some people in Devon and Cornwall to the behaviour of the holidaymakers there, I suspect a fair number of the locals avoided the holidaymakers wherever possible (especially considering the proportion of people of retirement age living in the SW), so the spread would have been more likely from young holidaymakers infecting each other in Devon and Cornwall and then taking it home with them to spread it in the South East, Midlands and North. Also, the holiday spots in the SW are not in large cities - people go there for the countryside and seaside. Spread is most likely in cities with lots of multigenerational living, unsurprisingly.