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It's just an overreaction.

890 replies

madcow88 · 19/09/2020 10:56

Now don't get me wrong I followed the rules to the letter and still am doing as I don't want to break the law.

However I think it's all a massive overreaction and I don't want to sit by and allow my children's generation to be destroyed.

Their education is totally fucked, they will not get to have the same social experiences as we did as young people.

Why is everyone happily sitting by and allowing our government to restrict our lives over a virus that kills 0.01% of people. Whilst 1000s of people are dying every day due to the lack of treatment and social interactions.

I really just do not feel comfortable with all the laws on our freedom being changed so dramatically over a virus if truth be told is not as deadly as they would like us to be believed.

Don't get me wrong I have sympathy for those people who lost their lives and for the people who will lose their lives in the future but no more than for the people who die of flu and other viruses each year.

OP posts:
loulouljh · 20/09/2020 17:45

I love it when people get rude! Just because you disagree with someone does not make you right nor warrant being rude!! We have different opinions. All are valid.

I think you are wrong @TheSeedsOfADream in particular. But like all sensible adults I am not going to resort to insults! The truth is no-one knows what would happened had we taken a different path. And only time will allow us to judge this episode. And please stop being rude. It is not becoming.

hopsalong · 20/09/2020 17:45

@TheSunIsStillShining

I don't know why you're adopting such a patronising tone. Are you an expert? On what? You seem extremely confused about the data. Of course the IFR of covid isn't 10%, even across the entire population!

The recent Nature paper I linked to argues that 50% is the threshold for herd immunity. If, say, 41% of the population acquired immunity through volunteering for inoculation, then we would be very close to the required number even if not one other person was infected (which won't happen). 7% of the population already has antibodies. (Of course, antibodies don't seem to last. There's a lot about long-term immunity we don't know. People might have to be infected multiple times, just as they might have to be vaccinated multiple times.)

However, once you take into account non-homogeneity, that 7% is effectively much higher. And some scientists have said that transmission is dramatically reduced with only 20% of people having antibodies. There may be some level of pre-existing immunity from exposure to other coronaviruses, etc.

But, just to disprove the idea that there would be millions of deaths... If we use one data-driven recent best estimate (fairly high compared to the CDC measures) of the IFR then we would expect, IF 100% the population was infected, the following:

Population data: www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/

IFR data: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4

0-34: 28.8 million people
IFR: 0.01 = 2880 deaths

35-44: 8.4 million people
IFR: 0.06 = 5040 deaths

45-54: 9 million people
IFR: 0.2 = 18000 deaths

55-64: 8.2 million people
IFR: 0.7 = 57400 deaths

65-74: 6.7 million people
IFR: 2.2 = 147400 deaths

75-84: 4.05 million people
IFR: 7.3 = 295650 deaths

85+: 1.65 million people
IFR: 27.1 = 447150 deaths

Scary stuff! This gives a total number of deaths FAR higher than anyone has forecast because there's no disease on earth that is able to infect everyone! (In addition 7% of the population already has antibodies. And some of the most vulnerable people in the older age groups have, sadly, already succumbed.)

You can still see that the total number of POSSIBLE deaths in the entire population, including the very sickest and most elderly, comes in at under 1 million people. And that's using IFR rates that are on the higher side of recent estimates.

The point of asking only younger people to volunteer, and then screening them carefully, would be to achieve an effective level of herd immunity with a very small number of deaths. Most young adults who are vulnerable to covid can be identified in advance. Obviously we wouldn't be trying to inoculate people with a organ transplants, receiving treatment for cancer, with autoimmune diseases, diabetes, etc! Screening should also be able to identify some people who are more vulnerable than they might think, e.g. people with undiagnosed cardiac problems. The point is reducing the total number of deaths by creating a social 'shield' of those who have been infected and recovered. At that point, the pandemic will start to burn out and older and more vulnerable people will be able to live their lives again.

It would be better to achieve herd immunity via a vaccine, of course, but there isn't one. Chris Whitty says it will be at least another year before one is available. So the question is, how do we reduce total deaths between now and that point?

Strategic infection ought to lead to fewer total deaths than on-off lockdown for the next year. However, the deaths would be shifted into a different group of people. As in war, which has historically increased mortality in men from 18-45 or so, in a completely disproportionate way. Maybe in 2020 we would prefer to let a larger number of old or sick people die than a smaller number of young and healthy people? Personally, I don't like that idea. I would prefer to take my chances for the greater good. (Admittedly I have already recovered from covid and am not bothered about getting it again.)

Once you introduce the problem of collateral deaths a) because of the NHS being overwhelmed and/or suspending and delaying other medical treatments and b) because of poverty, hunger, reduced living standards and poor mental health, the numbers of deaths produced by even the most stringent and economically destructive lockdown are, imho, going to be unacceptably high over the next year. In the long run, it looks even worse...

MummyPop00 · 20/09/2020 17:50

I see. So not much of an actual factual answer there as to why CPAP at home wouldn’t be an option, which is what I was looking for, apart from people insisting on hogging hospital beds in the thick of a ‘tsunami’.

Anyway, carry on, looking forward to the herd immunity :)

Ecosse · 20/09/2020 17:51

@CrunchyNutNC

There certainly are nurses twiddling their thumbs across the country as many wards have been closed since March.

Even during the height of the pandemic, some staff found time to make tiktok videos

We cannot afford for this to happen again- we need all NHS staff being utilised when and where they’re needed.

CrunchyNutNC · 20/09/2020 17:55

people insisting on hogging hospital beds

You get that these 'people' are individuals who are seriously ill?

Nellodee · 20/09/2020 17:56

You cannot isolate the vulnerable. Not because you shouldn't, but because it is impossible.

TheSeedsOfADream · 20/09/2020 17:58

@loulouljh

I love it when people get rude! Just because you disagree with someone does not make you right nor warrant being rude!! We have different opinions. All are valid.

I think you are wrong @TheSeedsOfADream in particular. But like all sensible adults I am not going to resort to insults! The truth is no-one knows what would happened had we taken a different path. And only time will allow us to judge this episode. And please stop being rude. It is not becoming.

Every single reputable scientist and modeller begs to differ. Had there been no lockdown, death tolls (which most believe are underestimated and will never truly be known- excellent article in Nature about this) would have been catastrophic.
NewAutumnName · 20/09/2020 18:01

I think a lot of people agree with you ...but hey ho.... it's all about covid at present and nothing else....

Poverty
How to pay for it
Businesses closing down
Mental health issues
Delays in cancer diagnosis and treatments
Waiting lists up massively for all routine operations/clinics etc
Suicide rate up
Domestic violence up
Neglect and abuse of children hidden away

But hey ho .... only covid appears to matter

Ecosse · 20/09/2020 18:01

Absolutely no evidence that the predictions of 600,000 deaths without a lockdown would have happened @TheSeedsOfADream.

Sweden saw nothing like that.

MummyPop00 · 20/09/2020 18:02

I do get that they have difficulty breathing in the acute phase yes.

I also get that the general procedure is CPAP>Ventilator.

If the wards are mostly swamped with CPAP patients, and only a minority of them go on to ventilators, again, Im asking IF CPAP is an option at home, why isn’t it being pursued?

If it isn’t an option at home, fair enough.

TheSunIsStillShining · 20/09/2020 18:02

@hopsalong
Whilst strategic infection sounds okay on paper if you think about it, it's a terrible idea.
Think of a paper 50 years from now (potential scenario)

"The UK decided to strategically infect at least 80% of their 15-55 aged population. In hindsight doing it whilst they only had 6-10 months worth of data proved to be disastrous. At that point the world did not know that GENE45 and GENE89 played a crucial part in being triggered by Covid-a9 and causing life long organ scarring.
The economic impact was huge then, but it is more of an issue now. On one hand -if we want to be cynical- there is a generation and a half who's life expectancy has been massively shortened, thus the need for government funding of pensions and healthcare have been reduced. But the real issue is that the number of people who were unable to pay taxes in the past 50 years has nudged the UK to the brink of collapse. The fact that a hard Brexit stopped skilled, culturally mostly compatible workforce to fill the gaps that arose didn't help and caused widespread economic and social disturbances that we are still bearing the burden of."

strategic infection -in my opinion- would only be an option if we knew enough of this virus, of its consequences,....

The funny thing is: if people were less selfish (mask all the time, everywhere, even kids) and could be self-limiting (we can live without a holiday fgs) we would be in a much better position.

But we see cases rising because someone went on holiday, then on a pub crawl. And this is not a one off....

I think it wouldn't take much to make sure that we and people around us are safe. If we would do that of our own accord ,than the need for lockdowns would be much lower.

Ecosse · 20/09/2020 18:02

And the population density argument that is often raised in regards to Sweden is not quite as it seems- the vast majority of the Swedish population actually lives in big cities.

NewAutumnName · 20/09/2020 18:03

WOW really

*The actual numbers (ONS)

Under 1 year 2
1 to 14 years 4
15 to 44 years 570
45 to 64 years 5019
65 to 74 years 7725
TOTAL 13320*

Totally agree it's a complete mess and over reaction

TheSeedsOfADream · 20/09/2020 18:03

Well of course there's no evidence because there was a lockdown. You can't provide evidence for something that didn't happen.

Please read what the Swedish scientists are saying. You're making yourself look quite foolish.

midgebabe · 20/09/2020 18:05

The Swedish managed to do more social distancing than we ever did
Working from home etc still strong
And over the summer, the Swedish often spend long periods of time outdoors and away from the city

And since we don't have the level of education that the swedes have, we have lots of people who don't seem to be able to process basic facts and act accordingly

Nellodee · 20/09/2020 18:05

@NewAutumnName

WOW really

*The actual numbers (ONS)

Under 1 year 2
1 to 14 years 4
15 to 44 years 570
45 to 64 years 5019
65 to 74 years 7725
TOTAL 13320*

Totally agree it's a complete mess and over reaction

How do you get to a total figure of 13,320? I've never seen anything that suggests deaths were that low.
Nellodee · 20/09/2020 18:06

Ah, I see, that's the lower age groups.

Ecosse · 20/09/2020 18:07

The point being made @Nellodee is that the vast majority of deaths occurred in over 75s with underlying health conditions.

TheSeedsOfADream · 20/09/2020 18:12

@midgebabe

The Swedish managed to do more social distancing than we ever did Working from home etc still strong And over the summer, the Swedish often spend long periods of time outdoors and away from the city

And since we don't have the level of education that the swedes have, we have lots of people who don't seem to be able to process basic facts and act accordingly

The oft linked New Scientist article is the best layman's summary as to why if we insist on comparing the UK with Sweden it should be because their infection rates, deaths X 1000 and economic consequences are pretty much level pegging with the UK. Unlike their Scandinavian neighbours who did lockdown from govt level.

That they aren't worse still is because, as you say, of the compliance, the voluntary lockdown etc by many. The general social democratic "best for everyone" altruism etc.

midgebabe · 20/09/2020 18:12

And despite that , the estimates are that on average people lost 10 years of their lives

Nellodee · 20/09/2020 18:13

Even with those figures, we have one third of fatalities from age groups which all have life expectancy of over 10 years - if you live to 74, you can expect to live well into your 80s.

But Covid is by no means all about the number of deaths.

NotSureYet · 20/09/2020 18:14

I've only ready your first two posts in the thread, OP but you clearly don't understand how a hospital is run. If there's another peak like last time hospital will not be able to carry on with routine procedures. Why do you think all the nightingale hospital were built?
This virus isn't like other cold and flu viruses. The cold isn't deadly and we have wide spectrum vaccines for many strains of flu. We have no immunity to and no vaccine for covid.
Your individual liberties and comforts do not and should not trump the safety and well being of society as a whole.

Nellodee · 20/09/2020 18:14

If we multiply those figures by 10, we might (only might, since you can get reinfected) get to herd immunity.

And this is not just about deaths.

mrshoho · 20/09/2020 18:17

@Ecosse

And the population density argument that is often raised in regards to Sweden is not quite as it seems- the vast majority of the Swedish population actually lives in big cities.
look at the city of Stokholm and it's population and covid deaths and you will see how much higher they have been compared to London! Give me a break about Sweden it's getting boring.
Ecosse · 20/09/2020 18:20

@mrshoho

Sweden has had around 5500 deaths out of a population of 10 million. Scotland alone has had 4500 deaths from a population of 5 million.

Which one has done better?

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