Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

[BigChocFrenzy]

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Wait now, sorry, it's much more frequent than that. It's 2 from their total positive cases from isolation in the last month, so it's over 1%.

BigChoc That article is a bit light on detail. I wonder if it was an asymptomatic case that started spread, and perhaps false negatives could also be involved somewhere. It does show cramped conditions are ideal for spread. Interesting.

Isn't undetected asymptomatic transmission via an unknown third party the more likely explanation for these very delayed onset cases? Unless you're testing everyone in the group every few days or somebody is isolated on their own (which these cases weren't) I can't see how you can tell.

iirc, Chinese scientists originally reported that the infectious period might last up to ~30 days

•	an incubation period of <strong>27 days</strong> has been reported by Hubei Province local government on Feb. 22 [<span class="underline">12</span>]
•	In addition, a case with an incubation period of <strong>19 days</strong> was observed in a JAMA study of 5 cases published on Feb. 21. [<span class="underline">13</span>]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incubation-period/

@IloveJKRowling

BigChoc That article is a bit light on detail. I wonder if it was an asymptomatic case that started spread, and perhaps false negatives could also be involved somewhere. It does show cramped conditions are ideal for spread. Interesting.

... I read a study on that case They were tested before the 2 week isolation and all were negative

So they were tested before the 2 week isolation - and were they ALSO tested at the end of it? Before they set sail? False negative could still explain how an asymptomatic spreader could get on board. It's thought that for asymptomatic people the likelihood of false negative goes up quite a lot.

Would have been interesting had they tested repeatedly throughout the 2 week period...but presumably they weren't doing this for science, but rather to try and ensure that the fishing trip would be successful and not affected by covid - sadly not the case.

I think they were tested at least once again, to avoid false negatives

However, if the chance of 1 false negative for 1 person were (then) 30%, the chance of 2 for the same person is 9%, of 3 false negatives 2.7% and then there were 61 crew ...

It is imo not a significant additional issue in countries that already have even a few hundred daily cases,
but is an occasional issue in a country aiming for eradication

Depends on if you are isolated as an individual or a group.

If you are in a group, person a is assymptomatic - they wont test positive on day 1 if they've caught it an hour before being tested. Person b only catches it on day 7. Person c only catches it on day 13. Person d only displays symptoms on day 20 when disease is identified for the first time in the outbreak...

The fishingboat had 57 people on. We don't know what happened between testing and leaving port (im assuming its not done on dockside minutes before departure).

Entirely plausible that incubation is within known 14 days in every case.

Rowland Manthorpe@rowlsmanthorpe (Sky)

Every time I hear someone talking about circuit breakers lockdowns I think about this chart

Leicester has been in lockdown since 29 June.
That's 84 days.
And still the circuit hasn't been broken

@RedToothBrush

Depends on if you are isolated as an individual or a group.

If you are in a group, person a is assymptomatic - they wont test positive on day 1 if they've caught it an hour before being tested. Person b only catches it on day 7. Person c only catches it on day 13. Person d only displays symptoms on day 20 when disease is identified for the first time in the outbreak...

The fishingboat had 57 people on. We don't know what happened between testing and leaving port (im assuming its not done on dockside minutes before departure).

Entirely plausible that incubation is within known 14 days in every case.

.... they were tested together, then totally isolated for 14 days with no contact to anyone else, with additional tests Their supplies were packed on board and left isolated before the crew boarded

Plus the other cases documented upthread were > 14 days

It is something that happens very occasionally, as may have happened in NZ

but is just not a issue in a country that has daily cases

It's probably on one of these threads somewhere, but I'd really like to compare hospital admissions (and trajectory) now with hospital admissions in March. Is the March data accessible somewhere? Google has not been my friend on this.

I mean it is not of any significance in the UK - because of the thousands of cases incubating for only a few days - even if it is in NZ

Presumably there is something like a Bell curve for incubation period vs frequency;
the incubation period axis just extends beyond 14 days for a tiny % of cases.

The 14 days was always arbitrary, as is the 7 days now in France, intended to cover the great majority of cases, because it would be total overkill to isolate people for 3 weeks, to catch the 0.01 % or even the 1%

Over the last week in England:

Hospitalisations up from 661 to 1141
Patients on ventilators up from 74 to 142

stuart mcdonald @ActuaryByDay

Latest COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths data for England has been published.

Average daily admissions has been roughly doubling every eight days.

I’ve aligned the moving average more intuitively with the data, so it’s positioned at mid-point of 7-day period

@IloveJKRowling

It's probably on one of these threads somewhere, but I'd really like to compare hospital admissions (and trajectory) now with hospital admissions in March. Is the March data accessible somewhere? Google has not been my friend on this.

... The dashboard has this: Still way below peak, which was 3,099 admissions for England alone

R in March was about 2.5, compared to the overall R for the UK of 1.1 - 1.4 estimated on Friday 18 Sept
with daily growth 2-7%

www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

@IloveJKRowling

It's probably on one of these threads somewhere, but I'd really like to compare hospital admissions (and trajectory) now with hospital admissions in March. Is the March data accessible somewhere? Google has not been my friend on this.

This is from mid to late March to now. @ActuaryByDay says there was no data prior to that in response to a question from another Twitter user (which seems odd but he should know??) mobile.twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1307042480987176962

This graph from Christina Pagel gives approximate admissions on 18 and 23 March:
mobile.twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1307039314803658752

Oops, cross post.

Hospitalisations were doubling every 3 days back in early March vs every 8 days atm

Totals in hospital also useful to see
We must remember that spare capacity will reduce over winter, compared to late March

UK COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats

Today, 20th September, 1141 people are in hospital in England with COVID-19, the highest since 22nd July.

Over the last two weeks the number of people in hospital has increased 146%.

How do I find hospital admissions for my local authority?

I would like to know the percentage positive rate for tests for people that self refer due to symptoms.

Does anybody know if this data exists. Are care homes’ routine tests in pillar 2? Are there any other routine tests?

Would also like to know how many IP addresses have tried but not managed to get a test.

Looking at data seems pointless at the moment. It feels like the whole thing is a shambles but I’m thinking that they must be keeping track of things somehow themselves???

@BigChocFrenzy re Leicester graph - do you reckon it was starting to work maybe but the schools went back mid August..?

I feel like schools is a double whammy - mixing at schools and then mixing because “they’re mixing at schools anyway.”

The only stats we can watch seem to be hospital admissions.

Even deaths hard to compare.

I wonder if they have a breakdown of deaths before and after 28 days for March so that they can properly compare what is happening now with back then.