Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

[BigChocFrenzy]

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@BigChocFrenzy

Looking at the PHE Surveillance report from Friday, by age range and deprivation quintile, 1 (most deprived) to 5 (least deprived):

The most deprived have the highest infection rates in most age ranges ... but look hard at age 17-19 where the more privileged had higher rates until just recently
More money to go out and hold bigger parties ?

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/919092/WeeklyyCOVID19SurveillanceeReportweekk38FINAL.pdf

Yes! That's what I was talking about in my above post.

I had to read and re read because I was sure I was misunderstanding the deprivation scores or something because it flew in the face of everything we are being told.

I do wonder if it's related to the fact 17-19yo from most affluent families could afford to travel abroad this year as we know there is a relationship between clubbing abroad and nightclubs and rises in cases both domestically and also in those countries themselves.

The schools data does reflect what I'd expect to see.

Primary and secondary highest due to circumstance.
SS not as high because these families often don't get out as much in the community, a high proportion of the children will not like busy places anyway and a significant number vulnerable so only attending school.

Colleges have greater ability to provide bubbles and they can and are offering blended learning approach.

I do wonder if it's related to the fact 17-19yo from most affluent families could afford to travel abroad this year as we know there is a relationship between clubbing abroad and nightclubs and rises in cases both domestically and also in those countries themselves.

I also wonder if it's an artifact of how it's discovered though? 17-19 group is the least likely to have symptoms, particularly sufficient to request a test, so are they being picked up via some other route that is less linked to symptoms and therefore deprivation - perhaps for travel, or as track&trace which is the going out?

Promising new tech development ongoing, for Covid and future pandemics:

Virucidal masks, safe UV, ionisers ....

www.independent.co.uk/news/science/coronavirus-new-technology-uv-light-virucidal-face-mask-future-disease-a9499886.html

[quote BigChocFrenzy]Promising new tech development ongoing, for Covid and future pandemics:

Virucidal masks, safe UV, ionisers ....

www.independent.co.uk/news/science/coronavirus-new-technology-uv-light-virucidal-face-mask-future-disease-a9499886.html[/quote]
Yay! :)
I still say that making it visible (eg painting it) would help a lot...

The historic positive test data now appears complete up until September 14 and both South West and South East seem to be going down. Hospital admissions in those two regions are also moving in the right direction.

East of England might be OK as well - too early to say, I guess.

London is tricky. The trend for confirmed cases appears to be plateauing / going down from the 450 number as of Sep 7 but: (i) hospital admissions jumped to 41 on Sep 18 (from staying at around 30 for 4 days) and (ii) Tim Spector (Zoe) seems to think London's dynamics are currently similar to the North and estimates London R at 1.4. I am wondering how well Zoe's model distinguishes between COVID and colds. Probably, something to watch over next few days.

In any case, there is absolutely no reason to implement any further restrictions in the South (South East, South West and, potentially, East of England) until the trends are clearer. Cases / hospital admissions in those regions are not doubling every 7 days (as claimed by Indie Sage).

@wintertravel1980

In any case, there is absolutely no reason to implement any further restrictions in the South (South East, South West and, potentially, East of England) until the trends are clearer. Cases / hospital admissions in those regions are not doubling every 7 days (as claimed by Indie Sage).

Agree. Cases in my very central very southern town have deceased the last 2 weeks. Still cases almost daily but 1-3 rather than 4-5.

What do people think of New Zealand now? This latest case got symptoms 20 days after returning to NZ: www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/4-new-cases-covid-19-2.
Now, NZ is special in having got rid of transmission, yet is having these regular "extraordinary" cases despite actually quite low cases from their quarantine facilities. I have to say, I don't like it.

itsgettingweird Agreed. All my local towns in Surrey/Hampshire on a downward trajectory. Covid Messenger and Surrey County Council data is good. My only question would be whether this is down to lack of testing, rather than actual drop in infections. I have to say, everyone we know who would usually commute to London, is still working from home.

Interesting note from DH today though. He drove into local town for a walk around and decided against. Packed, and little SD going on, although mask wearing still very much in evidence.

Sky News and The Guardian report a press conference, to be delivered tomorrow by Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance, setting out various possible scenarios over the coming winter.

sigh

Affluent 17 - 19 year olds can afford to be arrogant and bored because theyve had nothing to do since March and are under the impression that it doesn't affect them or their families because its only the poor people and immigrants that get it and its 'safe' in their community.

Theyve not had to get a job, are bored but still have funds to have a 'lifestyle'. Unlike those in more deprived communities.

Not sure I buy the"affluent teenagers are just arrogant" line. Not unless they suddenly became arrogant about 4-5 weeks ago Until then their trajectory was much the same as other age groups of affluent people (and lower than that of more deprived teenagers). So what changed 4-5 weeks ago affecting just this age group of more affluent people? Returning from foreign holidays is a possibility I guess, but I reckon it's A-level results. That fits the data precisely. They didn't suddenly get more bored or arrogant than more deprived teenagers at this point in time, or more than other age groups. But they did nearly all get Alevel results - whereas a good proportion of more deprived teenagers are doing apprenticeships and jobs.

@MRex

What do people think of New Zealand now? This latest case got symptoms 20 days after returning to NZ: www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/4-new-cases-covid-19-2. Now, NZ is special in having got rid of transmission, yet is having these regular "extraordinary" cases despite actually quite low cases from their quarantine facilities. I have to say, I don't like it.

... Their policy has worked pretty well for them: a very low density population on islands a long way away from any other country

Their cases are so few and so rare that they can live normally most of the time - if they completely stopped people coming into the country, they might even eliminate these occasional ones
(although they might also come from a very low level endemic infection in a few places that occasionally causes symyoms in someone)

Their predicted GDP drop by the end of 2020 is much less than the UK and many other European countries

BUT,
the NZ policy would be completely impossible for a densely populated European country like the UK,
especially one with so many essential international connections as well

So, interesting to observe, but not something to emulate

Watch: tomorrow 11 am Chris Whitty & Patrick Vallance giving a briefing
No politicians there and no questions will be allowed

@BigChocFrenzy

Watch: tomorrow 11 am Chris Whitty & Patrick Vallance giving a briefing No politicians there and no questions will be allowed

Wow that does feel serious. No politicians and no questions (gulp)

Heatmap showing breakdown of cases in England by age up to week ending 13 September.
mobile.twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1307609224495722503

Hospital admission data and graphs for week ending 13 September:
mobile.twitter.com/ADMBriggs/status/1307800850862088193

@BigChocFrenzy - as you say, unique situation for NZ. Sorry I wasn't clear, the thing that made me start a little was that this is the second known time in a month that the "very rare" event has occurred of symptoms 20+ days after infection, with negative tests in between. Long incubation is looking a lot less rare than previously described perhaps?

"Wow that does feel serious. No politicians and no questions (gulp)"

They obviously want people to understand the briefing, which wouldn't be the case if BJ started piffle and confused everything

It might just be a "this is why you need to stick to the rules" explanation / stern talking-to,
or could be a "this is the action we will take if infections don't come down to X by date Y"

• in the latter case, BJ trying to avoid the flak by not saying this himself

[quote MRex]@BigChocFrenzy - as you say, unique situation for NZ. Sorry I wasn't clear, the thing that made me start a little was that this is the second known time in a month that the "very rare" event has occurred of symptoms 20+ days after infection, with negative tests in between. Long incubation is looking a lot less rare than previously described perhaps?[/quote]
...
the 14-day isolation was always a compromise, which would cover the great majority of cases
We don't yet know the proportion of 20 day events, as we don't know how many they isolated on entry

Remember the Argentinian fishing boat case, where they & their supplies were totally isolated for at least 2 weeks before sailing,
then had to return to port after 35 days at sea, with 57 out of 61 crew ill and later confirmed infected with Covid

news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-15/Argentinian-fishing-boat-docks-with-over-50-COVID-19-cases-S9bxeM0b8A/index.html

That case highlighted both the length of time that Covid could remain infectious, as well as how infectious it can be with people in close quarters for several weeks

Rare that there is such proof of total isolation for 2 weeks

According to Zoe my area two weeks ago was very very low. There we 8 cases, population of a shade under 80,000. Now there are 67 cases, however, the areas is still shaded pale pink. I am beginning to wonder if the 67 represents people who have had a covid test and are waiting for results?

Looks like 31,502 since June and minimum 2 of these delayed infections: www.mbie.govt.nz/business-and-employment/economic-development/covid-19-data-resources/managed-isolation-and-quarantine-data/. Best case it's a 1 in 15,000 event, that means it's likely to happen twice per week on UK numbers, 3 times per week in France. It's a concern.
That fishing boat is a strange tale.