Costello's tweet re Whitty & lockdown Now retracted *edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[mac12]

Anyone heard anymore on this? Apparently amid the testing chaos, we’re now thought to be at 38,000 cases a day & CMO wants a 2 week national lockdown
twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022?s=21

@mac12

Nope I’m just wondering if this is credible & has anyone else heard anything along these lines. I know some Mumsnetters are well connected.

Read your thread title

You’re trying to whip things up with your thread title.

we’re going to test 10 million people a week” and then the next “we’ve run out”

The real answer oz is that the government and SAGE have prepared, and have massively upscaled testing capabilities, but two facts have remain. The second spike started in August, which was much earlier than anticipated, they expected at least to get to the end of September. This has not happened, and the same issues around testing and early spikes can be seen all over Europe, not just the UK. The French of course have gone on strike in testing centres, because they are swamped. I am not sure that will help the backlog, the picture is the same everywhere.

Secondly people here are being tested for non covid related symptoms. A sniffle in some cases, and others employers are expecting negative tests in order for some workers to return. So the colossal demand on testing services is not entirely down to bad planning at all, but the perfect storm of many factors.

Are you still unable to travel state to state in Australia? That sounds like a lockdown of sorts as well, when will that be lifted?

Personally I would prefer a proper lockdown to these bizarre pubs and shops open, but you can’t have people in your house local lockdowns.

The solution for the UK is to carry on with localised lockdowns as before, and shield the elderly and the vulnerable now. It can and does work, and we should do that straight away. We could take other measures too, such as limit public transport use where possible, everyone should work from home and other restrictions that mean we can keep as many people in school and work as possible, whilst minimising the transmission.

I don't think a second national lockdown is going to happen in the near future, or at all if it can be avoided.

Although I have heard Madrid is going into total lockdown.

Most people seem to agree that we need to shield the vulnerable. I’m assuming that the reason the government have never suggested this is that it’s too expensive.

Thank you, that makes a lot of sense.

No, we are still restricted on travel state to state, although that’s mainly because of politics as, for example, NSW and Queensland have basically the same number of cases but their premier (qld) isn’t prepared to have any cases at all as she can see how everyone has turned against the premier of Victoria, where cases went wild and he had to do a very severe lockdown.

That reply was to @Friendsoftheearth

Friendsoftheearth what do you think of the way the local lockdowns are going? Do you think it’s effective to lockdown and keep everything open?

He can advise all he likes, it won't happen.

Most people seem to agree that we need to shield the vulnerable. I’m assuming that the reason the government have never suggested this is that it’s too expensive

I am not sure it is the expense, but getting the timing right. It is a huge ask to take away people's freedom again, even if it is in their interests to do so. Most of the shielding have only had six weeks out of their homes. I do think it will happen in the next few weeks though or even earlier if we continue to see the infection rate increase, and the vulnerable I know are already taking measures themselves now.

ozAre you most things open and is life going on as normal more or less in Australia? Or does it vary state to state?

The local lockdowns are a joke! Carry on as normally but don’t met anyone inside. Yeah that will do it. Oh and make sue want pubs and restaurants close at 11pm!

Fair enough they don’t want visitors going into areas but anyone in an area can travel daily out as long as it’s for a good reason.

not I don't think local lockdowns are going that well, but we can't shut down the economy again for a national lockdown again can we? So what choice do we have.

I am concerned we are walking straight into a second wave, as I don't believe there is the same compliance with localised lockdowns that we have seen with national lockdowns.

I can see us heading that way because of the number of idiots flouting the guidelines.

In the end I think we will have to shield the vulnerable and the old, and everyone else will have to get used to living with the spikes of covid, is ultimately where I think we might end up.

If infections start to overwhelm the NHS and the contingencies in place (Nightingales) we might see a lockdown at national level, but we are not in that position at the moment.

Chris Whitty and all the other scientific people on SAGE can advise until the cow's come home, it is Boris and the Government who decides which parts of that advice they listen to and act upon.

I wonder if people in SAGE would be advising a second lockdown if there was a robust track and trace and testing system in place ?

If the last lockdown taught is anything it's that they don't solve the problem at all unless you intend to lockdown forever.
The repercussion of lockdown could be as bad as covid itself.

frump Most countries are struggling with track and trace, it is easier in some parts of Asia, as they do not share the same privacy laws, but in the west it has been very difficult and challenging to set up. In an ideal world we would have one, but in reality it is a huge challenge and takes many many years to build.

We are trying to build something that takes years to develop in just a few months, it is not due to a lack of effort put it that way!

But why can’t we close restaurants, shops, schools and pubs locally? Do we think vast numbers of people are going to leave a lockdown area to go to a pub in the county next door?

This guy is a member of Independent Sage, isn’t he?

Yes. Costello has an impressive CV, and is one of those people who knows everyone. And he's publishing this view under his own name (though he doesn't name his sources)

I take two messages from this
a) rates are once again estimated to be substantially higher then the officially tested numbers
b) a further lockdown cannot be ruled out

If the current measures do not rein in the numbers, the government has not ruled out increasing restrictions. I think that's something that we shouldn't write off an another lie

Johnson just isn't up to the job. He doesn't understand the science and is in thrall to Cummings and his rich chums.

Grouse shoot anyone?

I wish we had a leader I could have some faith in.

I just want a job at the end of October

and shield the elderly and the vulnerable now. It can and does work

We haven't included those groups in the shielding programme to date (it was only the exceptionally clinically vulnerable, defined by condition, not age).

What age were you thinking of for your new shield list? And aside from age, if all on the current vulnerable list are included, then you're putting extra millions into full isolation.

Watch the suicide rates rise if there is another lockdown. Peoples mental health is suffering.

[quote Namechanger20183110]@Worriedmum999

I think it’s needed. Get cases down to a level that track and trace can handle again, give the new labs time to kick into gear

What, you mean the very things they were supposed to be preparing during the first lockdown? As if this government is going to achieve anything in another lockdown other than a coinciding reduction in case numbers, which will rise again as soon we re-ease restrictions, which they will then find someone to blame for (again). Repeat.[/quote]
Exactly. The reason we're in this state again is because the Govt rushed to open the pubs but didn't have the testing system ready to cope with an increase in demand. It's not like they didn't have time to prepare.

They should shut the pubs and implement curfews before they force us out of work and our kids back out of school again.