Costello's tweet re Whitty & lockdown Now retracted *edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[mac12]

Anyone heard anymore on this? Apparently amid the testing chaos, we’re now thought to be at 38,000 cases a day & CMO wants a 2 week national lockdown
twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022?s=21

The UK has 12 x the population density of Sweden, so their measures would have far less effect in the UK

Furlough is ending, how are people supposed to eat if there is a lockdown?

Lockdown is just a delay tactic - unless a decent vaccine appeared. Lockdown won't eliminate the virus given international travel - meaning the virus will return. Lockdown won't solve anything. A few people appalled at the suggestion of isolating the vulnerable - so better that everyone stays locked up? Meanwhile the economy collapses and then we really would be in serious, serious trouble. If the non- vulnerable were getting about their business and some catching Covid, it actually would help with the much hated (demonised and misunderstood) "herd immunity" which would mean so many people would have been exposed to it that the rate of infection would drive very far down - making society much safer for the vulnerable to re-emerge. Yes we don't know how long full immunity lasts but it's not going to just keep reinfecting people constantly - no virus has ever worked like that! In the absence of a vaccine, I don't see any other solution. I feel horribly sorry for people who are vulnerable - of course. But the alternative is dire and helps no one. Professor Gupta was on Newsnight tonight (Wed) talking sense as usual on this. Do people really think this can be solved with lockdown? It can't be. There isn't a clear cut answer but us all hiding in out homes is not going to make this go away.

No incorrect above. Herd Immunity is what is achieved via a vaccination programme. Any other use of that approach apart from being futile would result in a ridiculous number of deaths. Immunity to this is looking likely to be short term for most like other corona viruses.

The long term effects of this are unknown.

Any lockdown type approach would be to enable the testing and tracking system to get on top of cases again.

Look at the figures re economies, the countries least affected are those who got on top of cases.

Wasn't the plan that they would reopen things sector by sector, watching the infection rate, and if it rises too much, they begin to reimpose restrictions sector by sector again? To avoid full on locking down again all of a sudden? Would certainly make sense.

What was the last thing they opened before the rate started rising uncontrollably? Bars/pubs/clubs? So close them again and see if the rate drops.

I've often thought that if we had had a more drastic lockdown initially, and more people had complied that infection rates would have reduced more drastically and quickly than they did.

Lockdown should have been earlier and I think there is an argument that it was lifted too soon. Get the numbers low then let a good track, trace and isolate system take over helping to keep numbers low until hopefully a vaccine or effective therapeutics are developed. South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan etc are having success with keeping case numbers low with this strategy. Our govt have failed to do this strategy.

I think it’s worth trying to get numbers low until next spring as but if there are therapeutics or a vaccine by then I think sadly it may be time to accept we have to learn to live with it.

• typo, - ‘but if there is no therapeutics or vaccine by then’...

Oaktree55, sorry I missed your post before writing my comment above. As you can see I agree with your analysis.

I live in an area already "lockdowned". It's just a farce. Everything is open. And everyone is out. The sun is shining and the pubs/ cafes/ bars are full. The schools are open and be damned social distancing, those kids are practically licking each other's necks. Illness coughs and colds rampant through the all classes in dds primary.

The track and trace requirements of pubs/ cafes? Only asked for 30% the rest leave a pen and paper at the door and hope for compliance.

But apparently it's FAR safer for me to see my mum in a pub than in her house because they can monitor that they can bleat "oh no guv, it's not because we need your money and your spending is more important than your health! It's because here we can monitor and trace you! " well, ta very much but I'll steer clear of rammed public facilities and carry on visiting my mum and sister. So no, I don't think another lockdown will work. Because lockdown seems to mean something different from last time- it seems now, that lockdown is purely to separate families and support networks. Because as a country we can't actually afford to lockdown again. at least that's my current impression of it

A few people appalled at the suggestion of isolating the vulnerable - so better that everyone stays locked up - I have seen communicable disease health professionals say is it’s probably not possible to effectively isolate the vulnerable. I saw one tweet - ‘ No country has been able to fully shield the elderly/vulnerable as they live with us & among us. Vulnerable young = hypertension, diabetes, asthma, overweight, cancer survivors, immuno-compromised.’

No thank you. Never again. Shield the vulnerable.

Angelina,

Yes lock down over Xmas... 23rd December until mid January.

Is he?? Cool. Any chance you could share some evidence of this??

Er - that’s what OP was asking 🙄 - not RTFT. But RTF Opening Sentence

@Northernsoulgirl45

No not a good idea and dh is ecv. Best to concentrate on areas with highest cases.

The issue with this is cases are now rising everywhere. The new case rate has doubled and doubled again over the last two weeks - when I look at the maps there are plenty of cases in rural and urban areas.

There are few places with low cases - and without testing we will just see this rise.

@Blackforesthotchoc

Yes let's go full peru. Have the severest possible lockdown and that'll definitely mean...oh wait. It doesn't. Because lockdowns do fuck all.

the stupid...it burns

Problem is, are you prepared to live with endless lockdowns, release, lockdown? Because yes, New Zealand has had very low numbers because of its lockdown but basically although it’s not locked down to people living their everyday life, they are now totally cut off from the world. How are they going to open up again apart from waiting for a vaccine? What if it never comes, or comes in 5 years?
I’m in Sydney and yes, our daily life has basically no restrictions as we have pretty much no cases (5 today I think), but we’re stuck here! Can’t leave the state, can’t leave the country, can’t have anyone come and visit us. I don’t know how we move forward from this point.
What I don’t understand about the U.K. is how one week they’re saying “we’re going to test 10 million people a week” and then the next “we’ve run out”. Like, wasn’t the plan for the lockdown to get ready for winter? They must have known that there would be more colds and things that would need testing in autumn/winter, and when they sent the kids back to school and scolded you all back into the office. This is why people won’t follow it because last time lockdown was for a reason and this time it isn’t.

I think they have been caught off guard by how early winter bugs have come round, usual peak flu season is Dec-Mar.

But watching numbers in Hospital and icu creep up this week feels a lot like March this year...

@milkjetmum

I think that is a very generous assessment, if the government didn't realise germs spread in schools and universities at the start of every new academic year, they are ridiculous! Every parent knew what would happen as their kids got normal bugs.

I'm in Queensland. There is an international travel ban. No foreigners can enter Australia and we can't leave unless there is an exemption. The state borders are also currently closed. Anyone returning has to quarantine.

We have had 6 deaths over the whole pandemic. Our daily lives are pretty much back to normal. Lockdown works!

I agree that it would be difficult to get people in the UK to comply with a lockdown now, especially since Boris has been telling people to get back to the office and Dominic Cummings has been running about doing whatever the fuck he wants. But it's not true to say that lockdowns are futile.

What happens here long term in terms of travel is definitely a concern, but we can't just open the floodgates to the rest of the world.

I'd be happy to do another lockdown if the cases rose again.

@Ozgirl75

Problem is, are you prepared to live with endless lockdowns, release, lockdown? Because yes, New Zealand has had very low numbers because of its lockdown but basically although it’s not locked down to people living their everyday life, they are now totally cut off from the world. How are they going to open up again apart from waiting for a vaccine? What if it never comes, or comes in 5 years? I’m in Sydney and yes, our daily life has basically no restrictions as we have pretty much no cases (5 today I think), but we’re stuck here! Can’t leave the state, can’t leave the country, can’t have anyone come and visit us. I don’t know how we move forward from this point. What I don’t understand about the U.K. is how one week they’re saying “we’re going to test 10 million people a week” and then the next “we’ve run out”. Like, wasn’t the plan for the lockdown to get ready for winter? They must have known that there would be more colds and things that would need testing in autumn/winter, and when they sent the kids back to school and scolded you all back into the office. This is why people won’t follow it because last time lockdown was for a reason and this time it isn’t.

Victoria fucked it for the rest of Aus. We would have at least been allowed to travel interstate by now if it wasn’t for their infection rate.

What was the last thing they opened before the rate started rising uncontrollably

Schools.

Yes absolutely. Lockdown until there is a vaccine. A vaccine that needs to be done every six months.

What does it matter of whole industries collapse, and people can’t eat? What does it matter if children don’t do sport? Does it matter if people don’t see each other and there is a mental health crisis?

Even if charities fail and the entire arts industry collapses.
At least we will have stopped 0.05% of people being subjected to a risk.

No, you don't need to lock down until there's a vaccine. You can lock down until cases are reduced to a number that you can trace and test effectively. And you can try to eliminate the virus instead of throwing your hands up.

Everyone is at risk from Covid. Just because you don't die or don't get hospitalized doesn't mean you are fine. There are thousands of young people with long Covid. For example. There was a healthy 27 year old in the Guardian who still can't climb his stairs after 6 months. It looks like it damages every cell in the body, the brain, the heart. We have no idea if this is permanent or what the long term health fall out is going to be from this.

What was the last thing they opened before the rate started rising uncontrollably

Schools.

Not sure we’re seeing the true impact of school term starting yet. More likely to be holidays and eotho

oaktrees This thread is one of the better ones. I am interested in what you said about Sweden. I have had covid, and now test negative for antibodies (as do some of my medic friends) so are you really saying that you think Sweden is not what it seems because they now risk catching covid again? As you don't believe herd immunity works with coronaviruses? If that is the case why are we seeing such low infection rates in Sweden now, whilst the rest of us are seeing spikes again? I agree they have taken an enormous risk, and are the free market guinea pigs so to speak, so I am not advocating we follow the Swedish model, but I am interested as to why you feel it wouldn't/won't work.