In what order do you think restrictions would be brought back in?

[Fololomolo]

I am just wondering what would be first. Closing cafes and pubs? Closing sports buildings? Closing schools? I know a lot of people think these should now stay open and economy needs to move on. But if numbers start rising again exponentially the government will probably need to react.

I'd like schools to close last but I think secondaries might move to blended learning quite early in the process. As others have pointed out, this would actually be part time learning for many children, with a privileged few having the right home learning environment, parent time/support and school provision to learn effectively at home. This would further ingrain the educational inequalities already deepened by the pandemic.

My dc are primary age and I think their school will stay open for the duration but I'm concerned that other parts of the economy will be privileged over full time secondary education.

Schools should be last to close, and only if there is no other option- children have already missed too much.
Local lockdowns have closed eating-in in restaurants, so probably that first.
Personally I think the first thing should be encouraging WFH where possible again- still at work, but less people around the streets.

@BlueberryDream

I'm not sure they will do anything till the hospital admissions start rising

At the moment it appears as though the cases are rising but those in hospital aren't - which might point to the cases being more in young people who are less likely to need hospital treatment?

Yes, and that's maybe a good thing, depending on how long immunity lasts.

First will be banning us from gong to each other’s houses it seems.

At the moment it appears as though the cases are rising but those in hospital aren't - which might point to the cases being more in young people who are less likely to need hospital treatment?

This is sadly not true. Hospitalisations are indeed increasing already.

@itsgettingweird

I think swimming, athletics and outdoor tennis sound alright.

I think team sports are more problematic?

I do wonder if secondary schools could provide classes in alternative buildings?

We have several buildings here run by the council. They’re all working from home until 2021. Huuuuge amounts of space that’s lying empty. Could be an ideal space for a whole year group!

Just a thought. I know it’s not feasible otherwise maybe they would have explored that option already

As much as the government say that schools will be the last thing to close as they are essential (which I agree with) it might be beyond their control if staffing becomes an issue. I can see this being a particular problem in secondary however, if shielding is reinstated, lots of clinically vulnerable school staff may be told to wfh so causing issues across the board. I think it would be hugely short sighted to allow shielders to shield but not those who are key workers such as school staff considering the level of SD dvd number of close contacts they have in a school environment.

We also have business centres that are 4 stories high. Most tenants have left / working from home.

It’s a shame to see such huge and relatively new buildings sat there empty. Huge car parks. More than enough toilet facilities. Many kitchens (for the many empty offices!) and a canteen!

Ideal place for a temporary school

Anyway yeah - I know I’m being silly otherwise they would have done it by now

I’m genuinely really surprised that people in Birmingham can meet with other households at restaurants and things. I was sure FIL was wrong when he said they could still meet us out yesterday, but he’s not. We just can’t meet them at home. That seems so stupid.

I think maybe they'll reintroduce the no mixing of households again nationwide.
Agree with pp stating that government are reluctant to close businesses and schools. I expect when it comes to schools parents will vote with their feet soon anyway

@Brokendownshire

We also have business centres that are 4 stories high. Most tenants have left / working from home.

It’s a shame to see such huge and relatively new buildings sat there empty. Huge car parks. More than enough toilet facilities. Many kitchens (for the many empty offices!) and a canteen!

Ideal place for a temporary school

Anyway yeah - I know I’m being silly otherwise they would have done it by now

You aren't being silly.

It's been suggested loads of times especially when back in June HT and unions were begging government to produce a plan.

They decided instead to spend money on eating out - refuse any extras towards even enhanced cleaning in schools - and produce the final guidance the Friday of BH weekend before schools went back.

1. We haven't actually tried the rule of 6 yet
2. Work from home if you can
3. No flights for holidays overseas (except air bridge / then none)
4. No indoor visitors at all, OR you get one bubble household only for indoor
5. No sporting events
6. No pubs except for food with table service and takeaway/ deliveries

But what would be the point of that?

We would be in the same situation over and over again...

Seriously at this stage we have to accept that this is only going to end if and when there is a vaccine and you can't keep restrictions on to wait for something that could be months or even years away...

Time to consider the Swedish way of doing things.

Can someone explain how the Swedish way of doing things is materially different from what we have now?

I think our chance to follow a Swedish model has passed? They didn’t shut schools (I know class sizes are smaller but still). They didn’t shut restaurants and bars, people social distanced from early on and wfh.
Now they seem to be through the worst and cases are falling whereas as the rest of Europe comes out of lockdown cases are rising and we have an awful winter ahead of us.

Due to our population density and lack of compliance (!) over here the argument is we could never have followed the Swedish model.

Yes what we are doing now is similar but cases are rising. Because of the lockdown and then open up pattern.

Firstly WFH, avoid public transport. Followed by hairdressers, gyms and beauty salons closing, and pubs and restaurants going to take out only.

Around the same time vets will go back to seeing emergency and urgent cases only.

Also we can expect to see a return to queuing outside shops.

If we don't get it right over the next few weeks there is a long, hard winter ahead and a huge mental and animal health crisis too. Not to mention poverty, a destroyed economy and millions of job losses.

It's a wonderful life.

I do agree with @Requinblanc though. Can we keep locking down and opening up again for years and years whilst waiting for a vaccine that never happens?

Will those businesses survive though? Pubs and restaurants won’t make enough on take outs

Gyms, beauty salons etc won’t survive another lockdown so that’s more people’s livelihoods gone..

@Delatron

I do agree with *@Requinblanc* though. Can we keep locking down and opening up again for years and years whilst waiting for a vaccine that never happens?

Delatron do you think it’s likely we won’t get a vaccine? All the stuff I’ve seen has been fairly positive, not guaranteed, but do you think unlikely?

@MarshaBradyo I am hopeful. It’s just worrying we have never managed a vaccine for a coronavirus before? But scientists are amazing. What I think will happen is there will be a vaccine that will reduce the severity of the disease and thus make it less deadly.

And I think that will be enough. I don’t think we will develop a vaccine to eliminate the virus. This combined with good treatments will mean it’s another virus we can live with.

@Delatron

I do agree with *@Requinblanc* though. Can we keep locking down and opening up again for years and years whilst waiting for a vaccine that never happens?

No we can't. The country, people and economy would be utterly destroyed.

If no vaccine or cure is found then we have to find a way to live with it, which doesn't involve constant lockdowns and fear of them.

@YummyJamDoughnut they are rising but not as much as the case rise would suggest

Since we know the virus disproportionately affects the elderly and those with cardiac related conditions, surely the sensible thing is to make sure the protection for them is as tight as it can be

I also think they are unlikely to stop people going to work - they simply can't afford to stall the economy again after it's started to recover a bit

No sporting events

Surely it depends on the event. I'm a cricket fan and although it's not the same without the crowds it's worked very well as the teams have been in a bio secure environment.

I know that wouldn't work for a lot of sport but there is no need to cancel everything.

The number 6 isn't going to work, I was up in London yesterday and it was heaving with people on the piss in large groups during the day. It's going to spread like wildfire and it's not the fault of children, schools need to stay open, the pubs need strict policing as it's out of hand.