Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

BighouseLittlehouse, to put into some context as of 12th September data, there were 35 councils with a rate of 50 cases per 100,000 or more. The vast majority of these are already in local lockdown. The exception to this are councils in Merseyside (in which I'll include Warrington since it doesn't fit in elsewhere). And the North East.

Councils in the North East have already taken steps to lockdown care homes there.

Local restrictions in any council not already in them that are in the top 35 must only be days away imho.

@IloveJKRowling
Surely if dd is better, and now you have symptoms, you give up for her and continue for yourself? If you get a positive test then you can assume hers was covid, if you get a negative test, you can assume hers wasn't.

In the first scenario you wait out your two weeks anyway
In the second scenario you both go back to work and school as covered by your negative result.

Either way your dd wouldn't be contributing to false negatives. If you get tested and it's negative she probably was never ill with covid.

...
Yes, I know it was the total risk then,
which included your risk of actually catching the virus

That is important too, because even at the peak, only a small minority of the populatiuon actually caught the disease

I realised later that you wanted just the risk of dying if you caught COVID, so I added Spiegelhalter's other charts for this

Thanks @RedToothBrush - we are in Greater London.

London is starting to get hot spots popping up all over the place. Possibly not helped by all the ‘why isn’t London rising articles’ people seem to think rates remain low everywhere. It’s not on the Greater Manchester level as yet but areas are starting to move.

I don't fit the testing criteria, I don't have a fever. She did.

This is typical for illnesses in our family. DD2 (who is little) gets a fever for everything, the rest of us usually don't, DD1 sometimes.

I don't think it's covid because my symptoms are milder than hers (though from experience they'll linger longer) and the suggestion is for covid it would be the other way around.

This is the problem with sending kids back to school with no social distancing. They get fevers with everything. This was obviously going to happen. They either need to have SD / masks in schools, increase testing capacity a lot, or change the criteria for having a test for children to exclude only a fever (but if we did this at what point do we miss so many covid cases that we are firmly into exponential growth?)

It's a mess.

If I was in charge, I'd pump money into schools to allow for SD (and also masks above age 6) and increase testing through the NHS / public health / GPs (rather than expensive private contracts).

Since kids are supposedly 60% asymptomatic and we're not testing kids, even close contacts of confirmed cases, we'll never know how much kids in non SD schools are driving spread, either.

Hi all a couple of days questions

• what is the uk’s positivity rate on tests performed currently

And (more importantly!) which of the many stats publications that come out every week etc contains this info. I think tracking it over the winter is quite key given the mix up between colds/ flu or covid.

[quote SarahMused]BigChocFrenzy China appear not to be counting cases when people are asymptomatic but have a positive pcr. This seems to be in line with other illnesses where a clinical diagnosis is normally required to be considered a case. mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN23915R?__twitter_impression=true[/quote]
....
The Chinese regime has done a lot of dodgy things- and not just related to COVID

The UK, like most of the rest of the world, counts positive tests, without waiting to see if someone without symptoms is just delayed presymptomatic

Since most people wouldn't report mild symptoms, only counting people with symptoms undercounts
Also, asymptomatic people can still pass on the virus to others

Similarly for deaths within 28 days of a test
I posted before an article explaining why Germany counts even victims of accident or murder who tested positive - they are too few to make a significant diference anyway

Schools and councils are circulating this (and other more detailed tables. I think it's very misleading, and of course it doesn't mention "when you should (try and) get w test and self isolate. Thoughts?

s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/jotter2.files/11439868?response-content-type=image%2Fjpeg&response-content-disposition=attachment%3Bfilename%3Dknow-your-symptoms.jpg&X-Amz-Content-Sha256=UNSIGNED-PAYLOAD&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAIH4MJHC24RK4EHAA%2F20200916%2Feu-west-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20200916T100848Z&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Expires=3000&X-Amz-Signature=d091ea5ce5e8c676b8b0b5ee2b4fb6d5b4ab48b64c25f25ddbc75088ffb5587f 

@BighouseLittlemouse

Thanks *@RedToothBrush* - we are in Greater London.

London is starting to get hot spots popping up all over the place. Possibly not helped by all the ‘why isn’t London rising articles’ people seem to think rates remain low everywhere. It’s not on the Greater Manchester level as yet but areas are starting to move.

The problem is more in the commuter areas of Surrey, Hertfordshire, Essex etc where the provincial towns (where there has been high footfall recovery) rather than closer to central London.

It will be interesting to see how this pattern changes with the return of universities to the capital (and to other large university cities which have had particularly low sustained footfall up til now).

Most of the footfall recovery has been down to change of habits in where people socialise and travel.

Nellodee If you really want to calculate your individual risk if you actually get COVID,
then
. use the Alama link in the OP to find the number of years to add to your age because of any conditions,
. then use Speigelhalter's graph for the additional risk that COVID brings for your "Covid age"

I don't fit the testing criteria, I don't have a fever. She did.

Of the 5 adults I know who have had confirmed covid, including one who got bilateral pneumonia and was a whisker away from hospitalisation, none has had a high temperature....

Oh blow link failed. It's a purple backed poster, "Know your symptoms", with 4 boxes, one headed "Covid-19 symptoms", one "cold symptoms", "flu symptoms", "allergies"

A simplified version of this , hoping link works here:
www.gmmh.nhs.uk/download.cfm?doc=docm93jijm4n6563.pdf&ver=9088

I think these charts can be quite dangerous because people are led to make their own diagnoses....

@Qasd

Hi all a couple of days questions

• what is the uk’s positivity rate on tests performed currently

And (more importantly!) which of the many stats publications that come out every week etc contains this info. I think tracking it over the winter is quite key given the mix up between colds/ flu or covid.

..... . test positivity was 1.3% for the week to 10 September

. The link for test positivity for all countries is in the OP, also here:
ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=table&time=2020-05-10..latest

@Augustbreeze

Schools and councils are circulating this (and other more detailed tables. I think it's very misleading, and of course it doesn't mention "when you should (try and) get w test and self isolate. Thoughts?

s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/jotter2.files/11439868?response-content-type=image%2Fjpeg&response-content-disposition=attachment%3Bfilename%3Dknow-your-symptoms.jpg&X-Amz-Content-Sha256=UNSIGNED-PAYLOAD&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAIH4MJHC24RK4EHAA%2F20200916%2Feu-west-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20200916T100848Z&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Expires=3000&X-Amz-Signature=d091ea5ce5e8c676b8b0b5ee2b4fb6d5b4ab48b64c25f25ddbc75088ffb5587f 

... Those links don't work for me

What might help people decide whether to get a test and how to do it is a (hopefully !) simple flow diagram

Agree @BigChocFrenzy. Several are around, here's one posted on Fb by a school locally:



Ooo blow, will try again:



I should be clear, I do not have any of the testing criteria so no fever, cough (none at all, let alone continuous), or loss of smell and taste.

So I don't think I should have a test when people with one or more of the above are having difficulty getting a test. I'm actually increasingly thinking I shouldn't bother testing DD2 as I'll be taking up tests. But I want DD1 in school (important year for her) so that's the catch.

My point was really - how much can we trust the data when my experience is not uncommon. Many parent friends in the same situation, waiting days to get a test if they get one at all. I suspect a lot of people are just giving up and quietly sending well kids back to school.

If you have a broken system, compliance is going to fall. See this thread www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4024046-not-my-fault-i-can-t-get-a-test-and-not-bloody-isolating-just-in-case

It's only since schools have gone back that there have been threads like this on MN.

SleepymummyZzz posts at 05:39
I completely sympathise we need to work and kids need to learn. It scares the hell out of me though I’m a reception class teaching who is CEV and came out of shielding to return to school this month. I know some of my parents are just keeping kids home for a day or two and siding them up with calpol before returning them to me as they can’t get a test. Four year olds are incredibly honest 😔



I give up, maybe others can try and link or paste one of the decision trees around!

@Augustbreeze

Oh blow link failed. It's a purple backed poster, "Know your symptoms", with 4 boxes, one headed "Covid-19 symptoms", one "cold symptoms", "flu symptoms", "allergies"

A simplified version of this , hoping link works here:
www.gmmh.nhs.uk/download.cfm?doc=docm93jijm4n6563.pdf&ver=9088

I think these charts can be quite dangerous because people are led to make their own diagnoses....

.... I find such information is useful We have to trust people with information, including to assess what they might have

The advice on whether some people should test depends on specific COVID symptoms
and if they don't have the specified symptoms, it can be reassuring to check in that table what else they might have, rather than ignoring the rules / lying and going for a test anyway

We've been given a decision tree like that from school. The problem is fever is one of the symptoms to test for, even without the others. And kids often get fevers with any virus.

So if there's no SD in schools, the problem with testing remains.

Also, lying to get a test must be at an all time low. Only someone with time to sit refreshing the computer all day, possibly for multiple days, then travelling 2 hours each way, would do it.

Lying about symptoms and not bothering, I suspect is at an all time high.

"It has precovid levels of footfall. People did what they were asked and went back to shopping and eating out. It was vulnerable due to that so a closer eye should have been on it anyway. People breaking the rules doesn't come into it when youve got that level of return to normal - there is an obvious level of increased risk. Saying it got unlucky and it was about people breaking the rules is based on no evidence at all. Its unhelpful."

We need the economy back in action. It is unhelpful to say that is impossible, even in areas that had low rates of infection - that is effectively what you have said. People have been breaking the rules - not wearing masks or wearing them badly, restaurants making no effort to keep contact details. The massive increase seen in Warrington in a matter of days was not seen in all other locations starting from such a low base.

The nervous can be pretty determined
Also, lying to return to work - and pay ? Or to go on holiday ?

Family tests done Sunday results back yesterday evening so quicker than expected. We are in one of the worst London Boroughs.