ONS saying that there is an estimated 60% increase in Covid cases in England with numbers at 3,200 daily.

[Goldistheanswer]

On Sky news just now. 60% increase and 3,200 new cases daily. It’s very worrying.

It’s a virus - people will catch it. The vast majority of them will suffer either none or only mild symptoms. Some people will suffer more seriously and sadly a tiny minority will die but even if you are among the most vulnerable groups if you catch coronavirus you are almost certainly going to survive.

So long as the nhs does not become overwhelmed then it’s not really a problem

@herecomesthsun

So is the count for today 3200? And if so, what do they think is the real prevalence ? 2 or 3 times that?

It's the estimated prevalence for cases per day in the week ending 05 September.

"During the most recent week (30 August to 5 September 2020), we estimate there were around 0.58 (95% credible interval: 0.38 to 0.84) new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day in the community population in England, equating to around 3,200 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 2,000 to 4,600)."
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/11september2020

This has to be kept in perspective. There are over 90 deaths from lung cancer every day. If we had this rubbed in our faces continuously no one would ever smoke. Coronavirus is very very unlikely to kill you.

But, beyond health and mortality rates, positive cases represent burst school bubbles, absence artwork, lost income for businesses. It's a problem that it is on the rise with this speed at the beginning of autumn.

Absence at work. No opinion on lost artwork.

@AlecTrevelyan006

So long as the nhs does not become overwhelmed then it’s not really a problem

This is the thing though, it can increase very quickly and the mood of (a) denial and (b) apparent willingness to ignore the rules amongst some people, does not bode well for our ability to keep a lid on it.

Aside from the whataboutery regarding smoking....nobody sticks the fag in your chops.

OP, it's worrying indeed, and looking increasingly like the UK govt, yet again, is playing catch up.

But on MN you'll find most people don't give a fuck about the vulnerable and the risks to them as long as they get to have their kid's birthday party and don't have to wear a mask.

@Cinderellashoes

This has to be kept in perspective. There are over 90 deaths from lung cancer every day. If we had this rubbed in our faces continuously no one would ever smoke. Coronavirus is very very unlikely to kill you.

It's only very very unlikely to kill some people. Other people are at higher risk.

@AlecTrevelyan006

It’s a virus - people will catch it. The vast majority of them will suffer either none or only mild symptoms. Some people will suffer more seriously and sadly a tiny minority will die but even if you are among the most vulnerable groups if you catch coronavirus you are almost certainly going to survive.

"...even if you are among the most vulnerable groups if you catch coronavirus you are almost certainly going to survive."

Source please?

People at ‘higher risk’ are still extremely unlikely to die of Covid

@justanotherneighinparadise

Why is it worrying? They wanted us mixing as they wanted the virus to slowly work through us without causing stress to the health service. I assume you have a health condition that makes you particularly vilneravle?

No they don't. If everything is as it should be then it would only be through schools which is a necessity.

People take the mick, which is why there is a 6 person limit. If everyone had distanced normally, it wouldn't have happened.

@AlecTrevelyan006

People at ‘higher risk’ are still extremely unlikely to die of Covid

Can you quantify this, with source please?

@AlecTrevelyan006

It’s a virus - people will catch it. The vast majority of them will suffer either none or only mild symptoms. Some people will suffer more seriously and sadly a tiny minority will die but even if you are among the most vulnerable groups if you catch coronavirus you are almost certainly going to survive.

Have you any links to the scientific and medical evidence? How do you know Long Covid will only affect a tiny minority? Experts think it's already around 10%, which is quite a lot of people long-term sick, potentially permanently disabled (and immediate membership of the Vulnerable Club). That's just going on initial research, which could change once we know more. At this early stage no-one (who doesn't have the gift of fortune telling) can state confidently that it's nothing to be concerned about.

@AlecTrevelyan006

So long as the nhs does not become overwhelmed then it’s not really a problem

Do you know any doctors or scientists? Have you looked into the damage of long covid?

I think that daily cases during April were estimated as 100,000 but we were only testing those people who were in hospital or NHS workers - I think we were testing about 3,500 a day.
So actually I am comforted by this as it means that most cases are now being picked up (if ONS estimates are accurate)

@ceeveebee how are most cases being picked up if people can't get a test? The government has admitted there's a current problem with test availability.

People shouldn't panic but complacent dismissal is dangerous. We need to take (calm) precautions and (to quote the government) stay alert.

juststopswimming has it occurred to you that while rates are rising in Spain and France despite masks having been mandatory for a while now, just how much higher the rates might be if masks were not a requirement?!
The evidence on masks reducing (but not eliminating) Covid spread seems to be pretty clear cut to me i.e. they work. We all have a duty to inform ourselves on how to use them properly and safely too.

@Floralbean

So researcher can take a large sample of population and do testing in it, and then extrapolate to the community, to get around the difference in tested populations from March and now.

Also the % of positives gives an indication of the relative wideness of the net being cast and whether more positives are popping up just because more people are being tested.

ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid?

I think one of the independent SAGE profs may just have said Moonshit rather Moonshot

[quote AlecTrevelyan006]ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid?[/quote]
That's about deaths, not about Long Covid.

www.bmj.com/content/bmj/370/bmj.m3259.full.pdf

Mumsnet is obsessed with long Covid

On the positive side, the increase is mostly in younger people, who do not suffer such ill effects (hence the lack of rise in figures re hospitalisation/intensive care) and hospitals now have a much better idea of how to treat those who do have severe symptoms, increasing their chances of survival above those of someone who caught it in March.

So, while it is worrying, it is not a crisis at this point.