ONS saying that there is an estimated 60% increase in Covid cases in England with numbers at 3,200 daily.

[Goldistheanswer]

On Sky news just now. 60% increase and 3,200 new cases daily. It’s very worrying.

Why is it worrying? They wanted us mixing as they wanted the virus to slowly work through us without causing stress to the health service. I assume you have a health condition that makes you particularly vilneravle?

Vulnerable?

So is the count for today 3200? And if so, what do they think is the real prevalence ? 2 or 3 times that?

Yes, my DCs and myself are all vulnerable.

Perhaps OP cares about other people and the economy? She also might be fit and well - and keen to stay that way. Long Covid could get you entrance to the Vulnerable Club. Not everyone wants to become a member.

@Goldistheanswer

On Sky news just now. 60% increase and 3,200 new cases daily. It’s very worrying.

Why?

It’s orders of magnitude less than the number of infections pre lockdown. Obviously caution has to be taken and measures tightened to make sure it doesn’t explode but the numbers aren’t that worrisome.

If ONS think the no of cases is 3,200, that means we are picking up nearly all of them as positive tests. Which would be a good thing for the future R rate.

If you’re vulnerable I can completely understand your apprehension. Personally I’m not worried. I follow the rules but get on with life otherwise.

Yes, it’s not what we hoped but the number of patients in ICU is TINY

@Tfoot75

If ONS think the no of cases is 3,200, that means we are picking up nearly all of them as positive tests. Which would be a good thing for the future R rate.

It would be, if they are right.

However, it seems unlikely that we have 90% of all positives tested, as the testing is so appalling at the moment. So this would shake my confidence that ONS are on top of their stats.

Apparently the virus rate is doubling every 7-8 days.

@Goldistheanswer

Apparently the virus rate is doubling every 7-8 days.

Independent SAGE is on now

Deja vu. I'm going to go back and reread posts from March. The same desperate denial and downplaying then had at least the excuse of no experience. We now have the benefit of hindsight.

Imperial College testing 150k across England, R 1.3 July - August, now estimate R as 1.7, bulk of infection in younger people, fewer infections in the over 65s hence the lower morbidity and mortality

@SheepandCow

Deja vu. I'm going to go back and reread posts from March. The same desperate denial and downplaying then had at least the excuse of no experience. We now have the benefit of hindsight.

Quite, I don't understand why some people continue to downplay the increasing number of infections, did they learn nothing from a few months ago?

I only have a vague recollection of the nandos chart now but I'm pretty sure an r number of 1.6 must blow the roof off it?

(also from Independent SAGE)

steep increase recently in transmission, especially worrying as people can't get tested and this means they lack clear info re isolation and correct process and for contact tracing

Of people with symptoms , only 25% are thought to be isolating.

It's hard to tell the actual increase as testing is more accessible now, whereas previously we were only testing those in hospital. With things reopening there is bound to be a rise, the challenge is how it's being controlled- ie if test and track is being deployed effectively to identify people. I am still being cautious, more for the sake of others, but similarly I don't think it's time to get whipped into a frenzy. I do hope testing gets sorted though and there are actually tests available for people, and there is a better process around leaving contact details at the door with pubs etc; many people take great delight in providing the wrong ones to 'beat the system'. I went to town earlier and everyone was in masks in the shops and keeping a distance still, I know that's not the case everywhere, but I do think at least a fair amount are still being sensible. Will see what happens...

Yes @sheep. Desperate denial and downplaying. Wishing I lived in Asia where it's been taken super seriously - masks - and hence economy is ok and people can get on with things reasonably normally. Here, it is so lax and - sorry - unscientific. Being told repeatedly - like propaganda - that Schools are secure. Feels like being told repeatedly that Masks are useless - back in March.

Thanks for the link herecomesthesun to Independent SAGE. I’m following it now.

testing is more accessible now
????

Our testing system is a very unfunny joke.
No-one can access one! People are being told there's no home tests available and the only slots are a testing centre 136 miles away.

The government has admitted there's a problem.

Its not desperate denial, but more feeling comfortable (for want of a better word?!) with what is happening at the moment - it was entirely inevitable that numbers would go up with schools going back and pubs/restaurants opened. The virus isnt going anywhere and we dont have a vaccine. Clearly schools were not going to be immune from outbreaks but the benefit of education MASSIVELY outweighs the miniscule risk of dying from covid. So unless you want to shut everything down for the foreseeable future (maybe forever) and live like we did March-May (except far worse because there wont be any economy) then we have to get used to seeing cases and just live around them rather than freak out about them.

As for the comment about masks - yes well they are working so well in Spain arent they? where they've been mandatory in the streets for weeks (months?!)

@SheepandCow it's more accessible than it was previously. The last fortnight there have been capacity issues in the labs which has meant some couldn't access tests, but compared to a fair chunk of the 'first wave', testing is a lot easier to access. That's why I also said I hope they sort it out now so that it continues to be able to cope with demand.

We took D's for a test today. Yesterday when we tried to book it told us to drive 80 miles away so we hung on till 8pm when they release new slots. To book it we had to log in at 8pm on the dot, wait in a queue for about 30 minutes. In the time it took for us to edit a mis-entered detail on the form the number of slots dropped from 60 to 10. When we got to the testing centre today there was hardly anyone there. It was clearly built for a huge capacity but I saw four cars in total. I don't know what the fuck is happening but I don't believe excess testing is an issue right now.

Well starts to cope and then continues hah.